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My Charting Blog

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is or me to record my thoughts on the market. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts that I read and readers should not take it as absolute.

4/02/2023

Let's do some wave count...

 I have not been doing wave counts for quite a while. One reason is because there is more subjectivity in counting wave using Elliot principle. Fibonacci prediction on the other hand is more accurate.

However, the 2 actually goes hand in hand. Merging the 2, I get to realize how Technical analysis (continuation and reversal patterns) measurements are derived.




Fig 1. DJIA weekly chart

When I mention subjectivity, DJIA exhibit some form of such behavior on its up-trend. There is no clear behavior of counter wave and the "counter waves" of the 5th wave overlapped each other. As such it created uncertainty in the reads.

The counter waves while overlapping on its own counter waves, its B wave is not very clear. I am still certain that THIS IS a counter wave. 

The counter wave was supported by its 38.1% retracement line. 

Using the main and counter trend pattern, there are few resistance level to watch out for: 35,376;37,835 and 40,180.

It is also worth noting that the level of choppiness increased after 2018. This is a possible indication of a top formation.












Fig 2. Nikkei weekly chart

Technically, Nikkei is on side-trend at the moment after its last surge during the pandemic.

However, the up-trend wave count is much clearer than Dow Jones, including 5th wave which superseded the peak of 3rd wave.

The counterwave downward is also interesting. The A wave contained 3 sub-waves with wave c of A, falling short of a 5-wave c of A.

While it was possible that B wave was completed, its recent surge above the peak of November 2022 indicating possibility of moving higher.

There are 2 resistance visible here. Amore certain resistance level is 30,092 based on wave B measurement. 

The other is a sub-wave measurement which I find a little skeptical since the up-trend with lesser gradient to its counter trend. Never the less, we will see resistance between 28,348 to 29534.

Fig 3. Hang Seng weekly chart

From my perspective using wave count, Hang Seng seems to have completed its counter trend downward and it is presently on a new trend.

It has reached its 100% projection target, more over crossed 127% projection level before reversing up.

It is possible that Hang Seng has reversed upward from its counter trend 2 weeks ago with support from 31.8% retracement, a surged up last week only to be resisted by its 55-week moving average.

The concern here is this: Hang Send has closed below its 55-week moving average.

If it continues to project upward, I see resistance at 23,870. Otherwise, a support level of between 16,382 to 17,737 will apply.






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