Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng Up-date - 26th Feb 2023

It has been quite a while since my last up-date on these 3 counters, DJIA, HSI and Nikkei. My last up-date was in Nikkei, Hang Seng and Dow Jones update -- 29th Jan 2023.

I was at that time bullish on HSI, bearish on DJIA and expected that there was some more up-side with Nikkei due to its short-term trend line.

Since then, I had some hard time for the next update as the signals were kind of in conflict with each other, I have to sit on the sideline and wait for them to develop. 

What is happening now to these counters? 

Let's start with Dow Jones.

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

Dow Jones shows a more definite decline this week, with a long bar crossing and stayed below the 55-week moving average. Will it come with a 100% reversal in the coming week? I don't know, and I have to base my analysis from the signal given by the chart pattern.

 For the moment, I suspect that Dow Jones at least has a little more downside, with short term support at between 32,284 to 33,070, of which the upper level is crossed. It will be testing the 89-week moving average support presently at 32,702.

Should these levels fail, the tendency of further drop will be high, and we shall see further support between 26,420 to 29,587.

Assuming that the present level of support hold, I estimate a high chance of Dow heading higher to level of 40,240 to 47,399. That will be spectacular, isn't it? However, for that to happen, Dow will first have to cross its previous high of 36,952.

Fig 2. Nikkei weekly chart

To be frank, I am still uncertain on Nikkei, looking at my work on the chart, it is not difficult to tell me that there is no uncertainty when all the readings with reading heading downward. there is even a descending triangle formation trying to convince me that "yes, I AM going down."

So what is troubling me?

For the last 3 weeks, while showing some weaknesses with some congestion, it maintains afloat above the moving averages, I am still uncertain about Nikkei as a result. 

Only when it breaks the moving averages that give me more certainty of its trend. For the time being, I can only consider Nikkei to remain in congestion. 

Fig 3. Hang Seng weekly chart

The momentum of its ascension was strong, so much so that it made me question my earlier judgement on this counter.

Nevertheless, it seems to have failed to break through the moving averages, reversed downward and coming down with momentum almost equal to that if its ascension. Its descent today is decisive with closing below the 21-week moving average.

There is a possibility of pull back upward in the coming week due to the strength of its downward move. Unless the Hong Kong government come up with some intelligent policies to support its economy, I doubt that it is able to reverse back up at this moment.

Where might be its support then?

I see support between 14,848 to 17,847 using projection, while its closest retracement support of 19,576 (38.2%)  and 17,636 (61.8%).