Cost of living is going to creep up again.....

It is a short week this week because of Good Friday. Even so, Not all the market would be closed. Japan for instance, won't close for Good Friday, would it? I would at least go for Nikkei trade in the morning, or so I thought.

I woke up at 5:45AM, did my morning routine and by 7:15AM, I was at my work desk, have my laptop and PC turned on and I was ready.

As it turned out, Nikkei IS CLOSED on Good Friday! Anyway, no plan for Good Friday, we ended going for lunch then grocery shopping before heading home, ending the day with dinner at my mother-in-law's home. Quite an unhappening day.

On a sidetrack, I checked on the internet over news on JB crossing. Without surprised, both entry to JB from Singapore were jammed, and it is difficult to say which one was worse. I could only gauge from the queue over the second link which was close to reaching the exit from Singapore custom that it would be at least 5 hours wait before reaching the Malaysia CIQ. 

I really wonder, "why many Singaporeans are so hard up on heading to Malaysia on every opportunity?"

Definitely, Currency exchange has something to do with the urge, Afterall, Kiasuism is an identity of Singaporeans. With inflation creeping up and cost of living over the roof in Singapore (led by government initiatives), heading to a country with your money is multiplied 3.5 times or more is definitely a great draw, even when you may need to wait 5 hours for it, one way. 

Otherwise, is there possibility that Singapore economy is not doing well to the extent that Singaporeans shorten their distances for oversea trips, road trip instead of flying to a faraway place. Certainly, the crossings were not that jam pack 10 years ago and a trip to Malaysia was not high on Singaporeans agenda.

It all come down to affordability, and speaking of affordability, I think driving may be less affordable in the near future, why? Crude oil and USD are creeping up.

It was not long ago that I did my updates on SGD (Now that SGD reached its 55-week moving average, what is next?) dated 2nd March 2024 and Crude Oil (It is Crude Oil's turn after SGD) a week later on 10th March 2024.

I estimated that SGD might reverse at 55-week moving average while Crude Oil has limit in it climb.

Fig 1. SGD weekly chart

While SGD went down as expected the week after my last update, it reversed before reaching my predicted target. It broke through the 55-week moving average and stayed above the level by the end of this week.

This led to new development in SGD with an upward possibility. Using Projection, I can see that SGD is now reaching its 61.8% projection resistance. Furthermore, there seems to be momentum to head higher. 

I may see mild congestion at this point before it goes higher to 1.36376. This level also coincides with its 78.1% retracement level.

Nevertheless, its higher degree moving averages for the moment still maintain tendency of downtrend. 

What of crude oil?

Fig 2. Crude Oil weekly chart

Crude oil is still attempting to climb upward, at the same time, it is facing resistance by its Bollinger band at 82.81, and at this point of time, Bollinger envelop is not relenting its position. The envelop also close to its 61.8% retracement @ 84.13.

It is also interesting noting that the volume of trade is reducing as it climbs higher. This is sign of divergence in crude oil.

For the moment, the reading from the previous entry still stand.