My family Clear bright festival, and is Dow Jones' ascension without end?

I have skipped my up-date last week, again. 

I went back to Malaysia for an event, the clear bright festival. It is a Chinese tradition which the livings visit and attend to the grave of the past. It is a way we remember that our existence is the result of the effort of our ancestors. Without them, we will not be here today. We should be grateful for what their work.

Nope, it is not exactly time for clear bright festival, it is not yet due till early April. It is the anniversary of my father's passing and we have decided to conduct the ceremony early. Furthermore, it is not required that we must conduct the ceremony on the very day. Traditionally, there is an allowance of plus and minus 2 weeks to carry through this process.

I still remember that my cousins and I all look forward for this event, why?

It is not about prayer for our ancestors, neither was it for cleaning the graves. That was the role of the adult. Our role was to eat the offerings after each prayer. The amount of food is abundance, including soft buns, duck eggs, apples, oranges, roast pork and pastries. 

It was picnic for us, not only we feast, we also took the opportunity to connect with each other utilizing this rare opportunity when all the cousins gather at the same spot.

Under normal circumstances, an average family will only have the graves of the grandparents and /or deceased parents. My family is more complicated. My grandmother passed away even before my birth. Her grave was very simple with just a tomb stone and a heap of soil topped with grass patch.

My grandfather passed away when I was 4, but he is not buried together with my grandmother, because he remarried. So we have at least 2 graves that we need to attend to.

My second grandmother past away in 1999. As a place was allocated for her when my family picked the grave for my grandfather.

My family is unique, because there is yet another grave that we have to attend to. For years, the younger generation has no idea whose grave was it. It was much later that we get to know that this is the grave of my second grandmother's first husband. He passed away without heir, as a result the off springs of my family took up the task of tending to his grave as well. 

As we took over the role from our parents, it was then that we realized how taxing it is to take care of the graves, including cutting the grass, loosening the soil, burn the incense for our ancestors' grave, as well as other graves nearby to say "hello".

We started our process by 6 in the morning preparing the food, drive our way to the temple of the first cemetery, visit the first grave, drive to the second cemetery and attend to the second and third grave. 

By the time we finish, it is 11 in the morning. By then, the sun is close to midday, and it is very warm and humid, we will be drench in our own sweat. In addition, we lack sufficient drinking water, leading to an absolute dehydration. It is really not an enjoyable experience when we are adult.

Enough of my clear bright festival. 

I have not been on Dow Jones for quite a while. Part of the reason was my prediction made during the new year in my entry Year End Review of Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng. I estimated Dow Jones should see resistance between 37,481 and 39,127 on minor move while 40,295 to 47,454 in major move. 

Dow crossed 39,000 3 weeks ago and is close to reaching the 40,000 mark that I estimated last week before retreating this week. It caused a minor stir on youtube.com. By minor I means a little news, mainly about it breaking new height.

What will happen next?

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

While Dow Jones has reached new height, it seems to lack momentum heading upward. Nevertheless, it managed to stay afloat above 8-week moving average. At the same time, there are a few level resistances. Most obviously, its descending Bollinger envelop at 40,746. 

In addition, it is meeting 2 projection resistances. While it stayed above 39,123 but resisted by 39,500. 

There is another projection resistance above these 2, which is its major projection resistance line at 40,354. I suspect it will retreat when reach this level. However, I cannot determine if it will be a reversal or correct at this point. I will assume the higher possibility of correction based on my experience on 61.8% projection line. it may retreat to its 55-week moving average before heading higher.

At this point of time, there is not yet divergence observed from MACD. Even when divergence is observed, there should still be one more leg up before reversal.

Other than this, I am not seeing other indication on the weekly chart. Is there other hint from Dow Jones chart?  

Let's look at the daily chart.

Fig 2. Dow Jones daily chart

It is also noticeable from this chart that there is a reduction in its momentum. However, there is a surge in momentum this week to push it to new height, with exception on Friday, which sees an over 400 points drop.

Is there anything that need to be worried about? 

Let's take a look at its candle sticks. The 3 days consecutive surge created the three white soldiers this crossing the Bollinger envelop. This followed by a retreat back within the Bollinger band.

While it is a little stretched out, I estimate that this is a potential up-side Tasuki gap, indicating possibility of continuation thereafter. 

There chance of uptrend is high even on the daily chart as a result.

I have drawn a projection on the chart postmortem. The reason for this week's reversal is due to its 61.8% projection resistance. With my belief that 61.8% projection normally result in correction.

Regardless correction or continuation after this week, the next resistance zone will be between 40,623 to 41,210.