A belated happy birthday to Malaysia...or was it a little too early?

 It was Malaysia's National Day on 31st August 2024. It was 2 Saturday ago.

You might expect Malaysians with great enthusiasm, rising up together to celebrate the event. On a contrary, it was more of a non-event with majority of the people treating it as another day of rest. It was a long time since I last stayed in Malaysia on this date, I sense no sign of passion for the country.

It might interest many here that 31st August in 1857 was not the day when Malaysia was complete. It was not until 16th September 1963 that Sabah and Sarawak joined the Federation, which complete the collection of all member state. The complete name of Malaysia is not just Malaysia but the United State of Malaysia. For some reason, I feel that there is a little plagiarism to the United State of America.

It took another 2 years before Singapore departed from the Federation in 1865, it declared independence on 9th August 1965.

It is because of this that some consider the actual birthday of Malaysia is 16th September and not 31st August.

I was supposed to create an entry on Malaysia on the weekend of National Day. Unfortunately, I was preoccupied with satisfying my mother's needs. 

Nevertheless, I am not late if I consider its true birthday, which is labelled as Malaysia Day.

My last update on Malaysia were So, another proof of weak government leading to a good economy? on 18th February 2024 for KLSE while Divergence after divergence after divergence... on MYR.... on 8th April 2024 for MYR and SGDMYR. 

I was actually bullish on both MYR and KLSE at the time. So am I right on both?

Fig 1. KLSE weekly chart

KLSE is on an uptrend, I expected resistance at between 1,674 to 1,860, which is its 61.8% projection. KLSE reached its 61.8% projection and retreated the week after National Day. It is presently supported by its 8-week moving average.

I believe KLSE should be on a correction or congestion phase with support between 1,556 to 1,615 if it breaks the 8-week moving average at 1,639. An important point is the previous high of 1,695. Should this level be breached, we may see an objective of 1,997, and 2,183. 

Fig 2. MYR weekly chart

In my last update, I noted multiple divergences on both MYR and SGDMYR, indicating potential reversals. 

Reversal came and MYR surged against both SGD and USD. Well, reversal against USD partially because USD on the decline. 

What I see for MYR now is a double top formation with neckline at 4.57, and MYR reached its objective of 4.358. 

It is congesting at the moment, with and with a reduced downward momentum since 12th August 2024. 

I believe there is more downside to this counter with support at 4.2836. 

Another import level for MYR is 4.2224. This is the previous low for the counter and crossing this will form a major double top with support between 3.6987 to 3.8996.

Fig 3. SGDMYR weekly chart

While MYR also strengthen against SGD, SGD is more resilient. It congested after breaking its 144-week moving average. For the time being, I do not see a very specific top formation for this counter.

There is a mild downside potential though. If SGDMYR not managed to pull itself back up, its next level of support will be between 3.2189 to 3.2838 using projection. 

As far as I concern, the Malaysia political arena remains in a messy state with the Government remain under the scrutiny of a strong opposition. Many will consider it troubling because the government's hands are tied. Me on the other is happy with the outcome, this leads to little interference to the economy allowing it to recover.

In fact, this is very similar to the US Republican's ideology emphasizing free market with minimum government control. 

With a stale mate situation in the Malaysia political arena, the politicians WILL have to listen to the people. They will less and less able to use racial topics to divide and conquer. My only hope is for Malaysians to be wiser in future electing people who REALLY willing to serve them, like Khairy.