Federal reserve considering slowing down of rate rise....

 

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I have an entry last week about the possible weakening of USD titled Is USD weakening now? on 23rd November 2022, I only used SGD for comparison, partially because I stay in Singapore. The other was because I was a little tired, I have just travelled back from Malaysia, and I have not fully rejuvenated yet.

USD was at a crucial point of uncertainty as it reached a triple moving averages support level, making it difficult for USD to continue its downslide against SGD. Never-the-less, I placed my bet on eventual continuation due to its present set up, especially when it was resisted by the 55-week moving average.

On 24th of November 2022, news came out that there is a consensus to reduce the rate hike. By this time, USD has fallen quite a while. I noted the beginning of a fall in Interesting development in SGD...and I missed the entry point on SGDMYR on 6th Oct 2022 but at the time, I was uncertain. It was only on further development that I became more certain by 16th October 2022 in Monetary intervention on SGD and a case for the currency

EEnough about SGD, how are other currencies performing against USD?

Fig 1. Jpy weekly chart

Let's start off with JPY. The market was till panicking with JPY a while ago considering its steep fall against the USD. Apparently, the reversal came on 16th October 2022. It has so far tested 21-week moving average and now resisted by this moving average, it is possible that JPY will continue its journey to the next support level of 55-week moving average.

Using projection on this pause, I obtain a measurement of support between 131.199 to 135.41. Coincidentally it is close to where 55-week moving average presently lies, 131.24.  It is also close to the previous bottom of 130.41.

It is possible for me to use the top as one of the references, however, I will use a single sub-wave 3 for measurement. The chance of this objective reached is higher.

Fig 2 EUR weekly chart

EUR behaves in a similar way as that of JPY, except that it started a few weeks earlier than JPY on 25th September 2022. However, it is presently floating between 21 and 55-week moving averages.  

Same as JPY, I will use sub-wave 3 to be used for measurement. However, as it is afloat, it is possible that EUR might move towards 21-week moving average before going down further. 

Adopting projection, I obtain support between 0.9048 to 0.9327.  This range is coincidental with the 89 and 144-week moving average. However, it is my belief that 55-week moving average is prudent in many cases, as such I consider an additional support at 0.9506 for EUR decent.

Fig 3. GBP weekly chart

I did an entry on GBP in GBP s looking good..... earlier but I compared it to EUR. Comparing it with USD, let me feel that DBP is more aggressive than others. While JPY and EUR are pausing after a plunge, GBP has already broken through its congestive stage and on continuation downward. It is close to reaching the 55-week moving average as week speak.

Using projection, GBP has past its 61.8% projection support at 0.8315 and the next support level is 0.7917, by when reaching its 89-week moving average as well as its Bollinger band lower envelop. The possible support addition to these is the 55-week moving average of 0.8147.

So far we are seeing USD weakening against the few major international currencies. How is HKD doing then?

Fig 4. HKD weekly chart

Evience of HKD strengthening against USD only visible on 6th November 2022. This is due to HKD ceiling against USD preventing it from its natural development. I won't do much measurement until more development on this counter. As far as I am concern, it is only stopped  50% retracement, and by the end of the week stayed above the 144-week moving average.  

Gapping during the last 3 weeks of descent further demonstrate potential for further down slide. The only problem is that the weeks end with much recovery, indicating uncertainty in its descent. The moving averages also indicate that it may not be ready to go down just as yet. I suspect that there might be a correction on the way. 

Fig 5. CNY weekly chart

While HKD descended from brink of its limit, CNY has not, it was allowed to develop its pattern. 

The reversal of CNY came after 30th October 2022, much later than GBP and EUR. it has only broken through its 8-week moving average 2 weeks ago and stayed below this support turned resistance by the end of this week. 

However, I am pretty uncertain about this counter. while it is seemingly on a down trend, its bars are all positive. The counter can go either way.

At this moment, there are much uncertainty in this counter that I will refrain from establishing measurement. I will do this later.