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My Charting Blog

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is or me to record my thoughts on the market. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts that I read and readers should not take it as absolute.

6/01/2006

STI don't know where to go.

I read from the chart last night that the STI is ready for another plunge, I was expecting a more gradual move. It's agressiveness however took me by surprise. Opening with a gap down at 2,381 which seems to be an unregistered support line.


Although the plunge was serious, its behaviour seems somewhat lost. It still cannot decide where it is suppose to go. In candle stick this is called a spinning top. So is this a good sign or bad?

If base on candle stick theory, it still needs tomorrow to decide how good is the setting. An up trend will in effect create a morning star, indicating a reversal upward.What of the classical TA? Its pattern has not justify a reversal day since neither long bar nor heavy volume was involved. However, a look at the gap show tell tale sign of exhaustion. I feel that the gap is an exhaustion gap. So even if STI not moving up, it has little space to move downward, with the support level @ 2,355.

Since the beginning of this week I was expecting this one more leg down. Since the weekly chart indicated that STI still has some way to go, it has to happen. Now I believe we are not far from the end of this plunge. The long awaited B wave would be setting in. Although both RSI and Stochastic are reversed due to the fall today, they are diverging with the price movement. Therefore I am quite positive now that STI will be going up.

However, this also signifies that the bear is coming. Firstly STI broke its long term trend line. Secondly, all its moving average is above its head, and the shorter MA is going to cross the longer MA soon. If basing on 2/3 reversal, we should see an up trend of 200 points, considering a 300 points free fall.

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