MYR

I recall over a month or two ago that I was talking to my father and I mentioned about the weakening of the Malaysian Ringgit. To be honest, my father has very little idea of how much I know about the financial market. To him I was trained an Engineer and he does not put too much attention to me taking about things like stock market. He has his own opinion on how such market should be played. Certainly he has absolutely no knowledge how I would derrive the numbers.

Since young I have been ollowing my father when there is no one to take care of me at home. We used to have maids but I was such a difficult child that the maids all left because of me. (Well, actually whenever the maids left, it was always ater an arguement with my mother. I was only the excuse). I used to feel guilty about the matter most of the time.

My father was trained to be very good with his memory. He can memorize phone numbers by heart, all you need is to tell him the person and phone number and 90% of the time he would remember even after 2 months. He is also great in calculation. He can talk to me about business, come up with the numbers and calculte the revenues, profit. I can never compete with him when it come to numbers.

Yet he was terrible with the stock market, most of the time he entered at the top and hold when the market comes down. My guess is that he has never a chance in meeting any teacher in this field, otherwise, I would have been a rich kid with silver spoon.


Fig 1 MYR SGD Weekly chart

As I said, I told him that MYR is going to be very weak. At the time, the formation of a rectangle was already matured and it is consolidating at the resistance. The measurement was SGD39.83! If in a longer term, the rectangle makes up a part of a swing move, the hole is going to be deeper at SGD39.04.

At the time, I did not anticipate what was going to happen. It was not until a ew days ago that I browsed through the Forex to be shocked by the gap down! I thought to myself, my god! (Note: I am not a believer of god) what's going to happen in Malaysia. If the currency is so weak, its economy is going to be VERY BAD.

In a way, it is quite true. Many countries at this moment are trying to save the economy, with exception from Malaysia. The Government is in a situation which it has no expectation of existence. Ever since the election, it has been doing much to fight off the opposition advances until a level of obsession. Little focus in fact was given to the growth of the economy.

The people at the same time continued to demand change because now they suddenly realise that they have the power to do so. One customer whom I visit commented, " if they don't change, we change them". This has never cross the mind of Malaysians in the past, because it was believe that the Government is unmovable.

Yet the effect now create a situation where everyone is focus on political combat and noone guarding the rice bowl.

So I told myself that I shouldn't be surprise at all. The chart has already forecasted what's going to happen, it is simply speeding up.