AUD, NZD, USD, SGD and STI

I recall writing an entry a while ago on the few currency and I noted that USD seemed to be worth buying comparing to other currencies (if you are holding SGD of course). Since then AUD and NZD have been reaching new highs against SGD while USD went lower. So it was natural to doubt myself if I have read wrongly. For quite a while, I have been saying to myself that the indicators are toppish and it is about time that NZD and AUD supposed to descend while it has been a very long while that USD has been on the down trend.

Well, I think ( really, I think) that a reversal is here now, the settings are quite there already.


Fig 1 AUD versus SGD

Fig 1 shows AUD versus SGD. It has just confirmed an evening star, an indication of bear move, and it is not the only one.


Fig 2 NZD versus SGD

NZD is doing even worse than AUD, it has dropped with an even higher percentage. Similar to AUD, it has created an evening cross. Probably because they are like brothers.

In both the RSI poses a very steep slope, indicating probably a bearish tendency for the next few weeks at least. While Stochastic looks milder than RSI, nevertheless, it is pointing south.

So what about USD?

Ever since last week, I have been hearing forumers claiming the strengthening of USD is the main cause of market fall. So how great was the move.


Fig 3 USD Versus SGD

If you just look at USD at a glance, there was not really much movement yet. I have no idea why people have been yelling that USD is rocketing. Well, it did go up but not as spectacular. It has created a Harami with a confirmation, plus its indicators are pointing north. So I guess we should be seeing theascenssion of USD from dust...at least for the next few weeks.

While typing this entry, I can't help but to remember what I have written on Thursday, I predicted that STI should be going down on Friday. Well, it did not. Rather, it went up with a spectacular move....for the morning at least. It gapped up ad then continued to climb to new heights. Unfortunately, it started its descdence after lunch and continued to fall. "Deja Vu?" was what exactly in my mind on Friday.


Fig 4 STI Daily chart

A look at STI shows that the Friday's bar is definitely much different from Thursday's. It is a tumbstone and sign is not good.

So I might be wrong but I am not far off. I guess by Monday morning there will be another round of panic sellings for STI. I got a feeling that this will be the trend still for the next few days. At least I don't have to worry about the market when I am on business trip to Vietnam for the week.