Is the economy recovering?

In recent months ( actually only a few months ago ) many countries are eager to declare that they are out of recession. Singapore was no acception, the Government was really in a hurry to declare that Singapore is out of the recession base on 2 quarters of consecutive growth. Taking the contrarion stand, I feel that it is highly likely things are not that okay.

I went to the aquarium shop just yesterday to top up my carbon dioxide cannister. I need the Carcon Dioxide for the water plant at home. While I was there, I have a chat with the shop owner. It seems that the business has actually fell greatly during the 4th quarter, almost like no business at all! All the manufacturers are also holding back their manufacturing volume.

Even for my office, we are not seeing any celebration of record high sale. There are even rumour flying around about not having bonuses when come Febuary. I don't see much activities at the loading bay neither, indicating that we have not been loading much order to our vendors.

If I keep seeing such a bad state of the market, where the hack is the indication of recession over? Could the rise of STI be artificial to paint a rosy picture of market condition when in reality the economy is turing?

I personally believe there is a real need at least by the Government to have the stock market go as high as possible,and for one reason, election is coming.