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Web thoughts-denzuko1.blogspot.com

My Charting Blog

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is or me to record my thoughts on the market. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts that I read and readers should not take it as absolute.

3/17/2010

HSI, STI and USD

I have changed my service provider to M1 since end last year because it is using WIFI for connectivity. It creates more mobility for me and my wife and we can bring along the WIFI unit should my wife need to have a short migration to my mum-in law's place (I travelled frequently).

However, I noticed recently a deterioration in the network efficiency, especially between 9-11PM. The traffic seems to be so heavy at times that the download simply halted and the web-viewer simple put up time out for me. At first I thought it is my data service provider with a lousy system, then I thought its my wife's system which needed to link to her office ntwork. The final conclusion eventually was the network itself. I don't know, if M1 wants to increase its member subscription to use the WIFI, it really needs to increase its bandwidth to cater for more subscribers, otherwise it would really reflect badly on their services.

Anyway, back to the charts. After my last entry on STI and HSI, both charts has defied my prediction and went further up. I am a little uneasy then because I was quite confident that they are coming down base on the indications given. Nevertheless, I must respect the market, they are always right. They are never wrong, it was me who is wrong.


Fig 1 HSI Daily Chart

I was indeed wrong on HSI in terms of the envelop support. My last look on the chart has shown me that it was breaking the envelop support. However, after a second look today, I noted that it was due to my error of alignment on the envelop line that causes my mistake on HSI. After re-alignment, the chart looks different. The envelop supported and HSI rebounded.I am however still right about the wedge and it has still not complted. I should be seeing a mid level 3 waves to complete this B wave, I saw completion of a and b, c has just started. Its immediate resistance is 21,595, but if my projection is correct, its final objective should be around21,757).


Fig 2 STI Daily Chart

I am not that wrong on STI. The Engulf did not come true, the day after my prediction it did not produce a confirmation. However,what I did not really expect is that STI is pushing for a full retracement to the top at 2,947. I should have some expectency of it pushing for this level when it passed the 61.8% retracement line but probably I was too eager for it to go down that I decided to ignore this warning sign.


Fig 3 USD vs SGD Weekly Chart

The USD versus SGD chart now seems a little out of place since my first 2 charts are of the indices. One might ask why I gang them together. The answer is simple, I am lazy to open another blog for USD. the download time for the web-page is simply too long and I still have to think about th title.

Anyway, USD has retreated from it progress, much to my disappointment. However, it is supported by its 15deg trendline. From the looks of it, the first wave of this seems to be a 3 wave pattern instead of 5. If this is so, am I seeing a counter wave? If so, then the eventual progress of USD will not be as great as I have thought. An alternate count however, indicated a short 1st wave with a zig zag 2nd. This read would be more obtimistic. So what's important is the next wave. If it is a 5 wave pattern, then we can safely say the bear of USD is more or less over after so many years.If however, it is another 3 waves pattern, we should eventually see more low on USD.

So what's good going to come out on a lower USD? I can really consider USA for tour next year if it comes true, cheap, cheap, cheap! But no matter what I hav to earn enough money first.

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