The EUD SGD Delima

When I saw what happened to EUD on weekly basis last night, I was quite excited. Basically, EUD on weekly basis has created a 2-week reversal pattern (more of less).


Fig 1 EUD vs SGD Daily Chart
Both the Stochastic and RSI also supports the reversal pattern. RSI especially is showing a divergence indication. So I should have confidence in EUD moving north.


Fig 2 EUD vs SGD Monthly Chart

However, just to make sure before I actually start converting some SGD into EUD, I looked into the monthly chart to make sure that it is at the bottom. Unfortunately, it is not that pleasent with the monthly chart. I am seeing three black crows. This is an indication that the counter is still on a southern trend. The only consolation over the whole matter is the indicators are reversing at the bottom. But it could still mean some more southern moves still for probably a month or 2.

My interpretation so far might be that EUD will be doing a correction with retracement from 23.6% ( 192.27) to 32.8% (195.61). If this is the case, we are only looking at a margin of 6%, this excludes the commission for exchange. So the delima here is, to go in or not to go in?