The word I can used for describing STI Today

I was busy the whole day. The company has been busy preparing for the "grand opening" again after we have shifted and part of my duty is to do some decoration at the demonstration drawer. Then there was a meeting that lasted till end of day.

So when I looked at the indices at 5:30PM, only one word came to my mind, "DAMN!"

Yes, even after the confirmation on the Deliberation yesterday, it not only short up but by passed the previous high and is now reaching my last predicted limit, stopping at 2,946, just one point short.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

So what have I got to say? Why did the market go against my wish? I was looking forward to its reversal.

I have to go back to my teacher again. I remember that he mentioned during the class, "The market is never wrong. If the market is wrong, it is you who is wrong." Some how it is like "rule 1: the customer is always right; Rule 2: if the customer is wrong, refer to rule 1;"

So I have to see what is wrong here. Okay, there is nothing wrong with the prediction of the Deliberation, it DID come down and went near to its previous low. Probably the support at that point was strong to the extend that the index rebound.

Probably I was too quick and desperate for it to come down that I have also ignored the rule of divergence. There was not much divergence from the indicator yet until today.

But the most important lesson I think is that we are playing with probability. Even with technical analysis, it is only giving me an edge with measurement of odds. There is always a chance that it will fail, and in this case, did the deliberation fail? To some extend it did. It also show that STI is not coming down, not just yet.

By now, divergence is seen on the indicator, the tendency of reversing down is stronger. I would see 2,947 is an important resistance to STI. Base on Fibonacci projection, breaking 2,947 will lead to 23.6% landing at 2,996 to 61.8% of 3,098.

However, my gut feel still tells me that STI is due to fall. My suspicion is that it is not going to break 2,947.