Some concern over USD versus SGD

My previous entries has been quite bullish on USD compared to SGD. However, I have my doubts recently.


Fig 1 USD Vs SGD Weekly Chart

While the most recent count of the chart indicated a completion of A wave and should be in progress of B. The shape raises a little concern. The end of A has penetrated 14,119 briefly before it retreated. This creates a possibility of a head and shoulder which to some extend is possible for a continuation pattern. The result might end with USD heading lower against SGD. the estimated target of the "potential head and shoulder" is 13,587. This seems to coincide with 13,417 objective of a swing move predicted earlier.

The chart is presently restricted by its moving average (21 weeks) at 14,043 while supported at previous low of 13,782 and the trend support of 13,942. I would see these 2 as vital points for USD to reverse up, breaking them will definitely means target of 13,417 to 13,587.

On the plus side, Stochastic is bottoming with strong suggestion to move up, well that is the only thing I see as a plus. RSI is showing reversal downward. The good part of this is it is also bottoming and has limited space to move.

If USD is to move higher, there is a resistance from the 89 weeks moving average at 14,348. This coincide with the (B,a) support turn resistance at 14,329.