An up-date on USD

It has been a while since my last up-date on USD. While it has come down, it was still hovering above 13,460 during my last look. I was hoping that this level would be its lowest before it rebound.

A look at USD vs SGD today mainly and I am rather disappointed. It broke through the 13,460 support level which is now its resistance. Its present level is 13,325. The most important question for me now is, "will it fall further?"


Fig 1 USD vs SGD Weekly Chart

There are 2 signs that I see is encouraging. First of all, the final move lately shows a 5 wave movement downward which could signify a completion of a single move. What's more, we are dealing a counter wave, of which the final wave is a 5-wave movement.

Looking at the indicators, while USD has reached a new low, the same can't be said for both Stochastic and RSI. They are potentially signs of divergence. However, this still need to be confirmed.

If I use Fibonacci projection on the downward movement, it would be supported at its 23.6% projection value of 13,034. Now 13,460 has become the resistance.