An up-date on USD

It has been a while since my last up-date on USD. While it has come down, it was still hovering above 13,460 during my last look. I was hoping that this level would be its lowest before it rebound.

A look at USD vs SGD today mainly and I am rather disappointed. It broke through the 13,460 support level which is now its resistance. Its present level is 13,325. The most important question for me now is, "will it fall further?"


Fig 1 USD vs SGD Weekly Chart

There are 2 signs that I see is encouraging. First of all, the final move lately shows a 5 wave movement downward which could signify a completion of a single move. What's more, we are dealing a counter wave, of which the final wave is a 5-wave movement.

Looking at the indicators, while USD has reached a new low, the same can't be said for both Stochastic and RSI. They are potentially signs of divergence. However, this still need to be confirmed.

If I use Fibonacci projection on the downward movement, it would be supported at its 23.6% projection value of 13,034. Now 13,460 has become the resistance.

What's become of USD vs SGD?

I don't recall when my last up-date on USD vs SGD was. All I remember was that I was relatively bullish on this forex. So what has become of USD vs SGD?


Fig 1 USDvSGD Weekly Chart

Actually, I find it a little disgusting when looking at USD on weekly basis. It has made attempts to move up but every time it did that, it retraced. It went as low as 13,647, near the lowest point of 13,460. For the time being, both RSI and Stochastic are coming lower and are already in the southern half of earth.

The only good thing that I see is that it is presently located at the positve gradient of Gann Grid lines, there is still a chance that it will go higher from here. The 21 weeks moving average is resisting at 13,941 while the 89 weeks at 14,227. With uncertainty on the weekly chart, it is thus worthwhile to look at it on monthly time frame.


Fig 2 USDvSGD Monthly Chart

The monthly chart on the other hand is portraying another story. By zooming out the chart, USD seems to be showing a bottom formation in progress. It is either a double
or tripple bottom, which is it I am not sure. What I am sure of is divergence is seen on Stochastic while RSI is having higher highs. I feel that the down trend is really limited as the Bollinger Band is narrowing which created a scenary of USD vs SGD trading at a narrow band.

I am still having confidence that USD has limited down trend with much potential for reversal. It is however too early at this point to determine its objective because the pattern has not yet established. We will probably have to wait longer for the flower to be full bloomed.

Some concern over USD versus SGD

My previous entries has been quite bullish on USD compared to SGD. However, I have my doubts recently.


Fig 1 USD Vs SGD Weekly Chart

While the most recent count of the chart indicated a completion of A wave and should be in progress of B. The shape raises a little concern. The end of A has penetrated 14,119 briefly before it retreated. This creates a possibility of a head and shoulder which to some extend is possible for a continuation pattern. The result might end with USD heading lower against SGD. the estimated target of the "potential head and shoulder" is 13,587. This seems to coincide with 13,417 objective of a swing move predicted earlier.

The chart is presently restricted by its moving average (21 weeks) at 14,043 while supported at previous low of 13,782 and the trend support of 13,942. I would see these 2 as vital points for USD to reverse up, breaking them will definitely means target of 13,417 to 13,587.

On the plus side, Stochastic is bottoming with strong suggestion to move up, well that is the only thing I see as a plus. RSI is showing reversal downward. The good part of this is it is also bottoming and has limited space to move.

If USD is to move higher, there is a resistance from the 89 weeks moving average at 14,348. This coincide with the (B,a) support turn resistance at 14,329.