EUR GBP comparison

 I was going through my earlier entries and noted some issue on GBPUSD chart in Currencies April 2023 update. The chart did not seem right and I was wondering if it is of a different time frame.

It also led me to consider that I should do a comparison on the 2 currencies, afterall they are to me a couple who have just gone through divorce. It also brought up the thought as to who is the husband and who is the wife in this separation. 

Based on recent statistics, the woman is the one who initiate the divorce as she is the one who is normally unhappy with the situation at hand, and most of the time she would have found a new man to attached to for security purpose.

So in this case, I can justify that UK is the woman, UK was not happy with the restriction brought forth by the union and partnered up with its old flame, US of A before the divorce commenced.

Anyway, side talk over. Let's see how both currencies are doing as individuals and when compared to each other.

Fig 1. EURUSD, GBPUSD & EURGBP weekly chart

To begin with, both counters made a strong re-bounce on week of 25th Sept 2022, only to be stopped by their moving averages. 

EUR to me is stronger than GBP, since it penetrated through 55-week moving average and only to be stopped by the next level of 89-week. 

GBP on the other hand was stopped by 55-week moving average, twice before it could move higher.

Lately both encountered the highest moving average that I placed, 144-week moving average. While GBP stopped below 144-week moving average, EUR managed to rest above.

GBP seems weaker than EUR in all sense.

For the time being, resistance I see for EUR are as follows: retracement lines between 1.1280 to 1.1757 and a projection target of 1.14373 to 1.200705.

GBP on the other faces resistance at 1.2761 to 1.3429, while a projection target of between 1.3088 to 1.3806.

If this direction is consistent however, there is another currency in trouble, USD. Because USD is weakening against both currencies.

To further confirm the hypothesis that EUR will fare better than GBP, let's analyze EURGBP. 

There seems to be a huge reversal on 25th sept 2022, making it plausible that GBP is improving against EUR. The counter seems to be in a congestion phase after support at the moving averages. While it seemingly climbing back up, it gives me a feeling of lacking in momentum. 

The counter also seem to be in a sub-wave congestion downward, meaning a potential up-trend after then. But because its present trend has yet to complete, I refrain from estimating its up-ward potential until a more certain indication.

So for the time being, the trend is down, with projection support at 0.8713, which EURGBP is right above. A further support level of 0.8512 should this be broken. 

One thing to note here is the 55-week moving average, which lies right below the 61.8% retracement as well as projection, giving quite a good support for this pair. There is a possibility of reversal, but I have to wait and see before concluding.