Currencies April 2023 update

Time passes very quickly, it seemed that we just celebrated new year, then Chinese New Year, the passing of my father and now we are into the second quarter of the year. May be I am getting much older now?

anyway, I have recently rekindled an old hobby of mine, I am now back into comic drawing. Drawing has been an important part of my life since I got to know the world. My first drawings were on the wall in my grandmother's room, a fish, or part of it. 

My uncles were in school at the time, and they were studying Biology, I managed a glance of the human organs in particular the digestive system. I drew a fish with the human digestive system as a result.

It was through years of work life that I started to lose my ability in drawing, the longer I was in the work force, the less imagination I have. So much so that I held a pencil in mt hand, a piece of paper in front of me, and it went blank for hours.

My flame in drawing grew recently when I found interest in perfecting my sketches of the female anatomy. Yes, I love drawing female, why? I remember one artist said when he was asked the question," because I love women."

anyway, at this point of time, it is not about women, or my sketches. Let's check on the sketchings of the charts.

I have recently heard from a youtuber that the US politicians were focusing on the wrong thing such as woke culture and "inclusivity" when the true problem is the decline of the USD.

The USD decline was mentioned often. However, It is recently facing more threat than before, with news that the Saudi and China going to trade oil using CNY, and that China's influence growing stronger to the extend that it initiated a peace talk between Saudi and Iran. Further more, an increasing number of countries are joining BRICS, a coalition to counter the strength of USD.

 I did an up-date on USD in April 2023 titled Currencies March 2023 update, While there were signs of upward reversal, I was uncertain on a few pairings. A month has past now, how is the USD doing right now?

Fig 1. SGD weekly chart

SGD did not go into correction. 

At this point of time, it failed to break through the 21-week moving average. Moreover, the point which it reversed coincided with the 61.8% projection level support of a major move. I figure that it will head towards its next level of support (100% projection). 

While hesitating at this moment, it nevertheless resisted by the 8-week moving average, it is indicative that USD will slide lower against SGD. 

During its last low, the counter did not touch its 100% projection support before its debounce, I suspect it will not stop at 100% mark and move further towards its 127% projection support at 1.26.

The correction upward has also generated another projection measurement. Its 61.8% projection support coincidentally is near the 127% projection level at 1.2679.

Fig 2. JPY weekly chart

Similar to SGD, JPY has also fell of after its correction upward. It is presently supported by its 55-week moving average. However, it also seems to lack inertia to reverse upward, giving me a feeling that it is congesting for a flag formation. 

It is however, floating above the 55-week moving average, which coincidentally at its 38.2% retracement support.

I am still uncertain of its trend at the moment. So I head back to a bigger picture.

As long as there is no violation of its formation, I will still consider its trend to head downward with support at between 113.220 to 122.59. If it is heading up, it will face its Bollinger resistance at 140.28

Fig 3. EURUSD weekly chart

I am using the chart on my trading platform as it has more Fibonacci tools than finance.yahoo.com. However, it only provides EURUSD pair and not the other way round.

EURUSD is presently retesting its previous high, coincidentally meeting the 144-week moving average resistance. It has not yet violated the old high.

For the time being, the formation gives me 2 possibilities: Support of between 0.8224 to 0.9308; Resistance of between 1.1436 to 1.2022.

Fig 4. GBPUSD weekly chart

Unlike EURUSD, GBPUSD chart looks rougher, probably because of BREXT and its present political turmoil. Of the 2, GBP seems weaker than EUR.

The general trend of GBP is down against USD, even with the recent up-surge, the present measurement unable to see it breach the previous high of 1.4242, with resistance between 1.3104 to 1.3903.

On the downside, there are 2 sets of measurements, a more recent one with up to 127% projection support of 1.04967, which has been tested before reversing up. The other with support between 1.190 (which has been crossed) and 0.9223. 

Some time it is sad to see such powerful nation goes into deterioration simply because self centered politicians who are good in speech yet incompetence in running the country. They ride on the band wagon of woke culture not because they believe in its cause, but it guarantees their own political survival. 

Going through world history, it is not difficult to see that an empire is reaching its death bed when the focus of the government is not focusing on the big issue to bring the country to the next level, but to focus on insignificant issues that do not even affect the country progress in any way. 

When the west is focus on avoiding hurting feelings of a certain people, they will lock themselves in a shell and shrink while other grow.