Currencies March 2023 update

It was February 4th that I did an update on currencies titled Is USD on free fall? USD was seemingly at on a free fall the time. However, I also ignored the fact that the currency pairs were all in process of crossing the moving average belt, making it tougher for the counters to cross through.

In fact, the moving average belt seems to reverse the trend for USD.

Fig SGD weekly chart

In my last update, it was noted that SGD was close to its 100% projection support. Reversal happened since then. The upthrust of SGD is as strong as its downslide earlier, with similar steepness in the opposite direction.

Are we seeing USD strengthening against SGD? 

It might still be too early to tell. At the end of this week, its ascension is blocked by the 21-week moving average, producing a hang man candle stick. While so, the pattern does not look spectacular.

Another interesting thing on the chart is the MACD which has just crossed from the bottom. It is possible to be an indication of reversal. 

My suspicion is that it might go into a correction after this.

Fig 2. JPY weekly chart

Similarity is observed on JPY, except that JPY has broken through and stayed above the moving averages. There is a higher chance that USD will continue to strengthen against JPY from here on.

JPY is presently resisted by its 38.2% retracement line at 136.68. If broken, the next level is its 61.8% retracement at 142.58.

A point to note is the crossing of MACD, a similar situation to SGD.

  

Fig 3. EUR weekly chart

EUR is weaker than JPY, going against USD. It is presently stopped by its 21-week moving average. Nevertheless, it is presently on borderline support of 55-week moving average. 

Like both JPY and SGD, its MACD has also crossed from the bottom. It is more likely that the direction is still up for the time being.

Using retracement, the likely resistance level lies between 0.9611 to 0.9944.

Fig 4. GBP weekly chart

GBP is more interesting here. It seems to be in a rectangle formation. Unlike EUR, it did not break to a lower low, and reversed on reaching the previous low. As such there are 2 possibilities. 

If it breaks the upper boundary, then we are seeing an objective of 0.8848. If breaking the lower boundary on the other hand, the objective will be 0.7623.