Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng up-date 23rd April 2023

This is the second week of school for both my children, both decided to choose a polytechnic located in the west while we stay in the east.

For them, it is an hour and a half of travel one way. this ends with me fetching them to school to cut down travel time. However, I do not send them to school every morning, only Monday to Wednesday as well as Friday, when I also send my wife to work.

However, this means that I regularly have breakfast with my kids at their school, which is cheaper than usual. So there goes my intermittent fasting.

What's more hectic will be the coming week when I will be traveling to Kuala Lumpur to finalize my father's departure. The coming Friday will be the 49th day since his departure and the event will be concluded. He will be guided back home and raised to the ancestral altar.

As for the market, at least the behavior of Anheiser-Busch was quite to my expectation. It did not drop further due to the support levels it is resting on. It however, continues to hover. I suspect it is due to the management team still uncertain on how they want to handle the situation, and traders continue to on hold their action pending the company's decision.

To be frank, if I am the management team, the only one group of people whom I will pander to is my customer base, losing it will be disaster, competitors will take this opportunity to penetrate through the core base of the company, as can be seen from Ultra Right, Coor and Yueling.

Enough of chit chat. How are the markets doing? My last update on the 3 indices that I trade on was Let's do some wave count... on 2nd April 2023. Based on wave count at the time, the general directions were up, although I was skeptical with hang Seng and cautious on Nikkei.

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

While Dow Jones was on the up-trend until its pause this week, its momentum was not really strong. Furthermore, it seems to be stopping at the trendline based on the last 2 peak. On a positive note, it broke through a longer trendline, retested the resistance turned support of this line and bounced further up. 

One issue I am concern about here is that while Dow Jones is on an upward movement, it did not manage to convince the Bollinger envelop, which went flat. Close monitoring of this counter needed especially when it retest the trendline as well as the Bollinger band envelop.

Using Fibonacci projection, it is possible to determine 2 levels of resistances between 35,308 to 37,774.  

Fig 2. Nikkei weekly chart

Yes, all arrows pointing up for Nikkei base on Fibonacci measurement at least. 

However, it is also worth noting that Nikkei is within a congestion zone, and its present trend is of C wave, in my opinion. furthermore, this is likely to be in a major B wave after a major A formed between December 2021 to June 2022.

If this is true, The peak of the major B wave should not be higher than its peak in May 2021. I am seeing resistance between 29,594 to 30,346. However, it is crucial that it overcome its present position, which coincidentally are where both 61.8% projections are located.

Fig 3. Hang Seng weekly chart

Hang Seng is facing resistance, this come from the 55-week moving average that I find highly influential. It has difficulties penetrating this resistance level. The counter has been testing and retesting the last few weeks and the bars in the last 2 weeks even turned red. I suspect that it is going to head downward, but the signal is not yet definite.

A more definite read so far is an uptrend (in blue). Unless Hang Seng come down breaking with a new low, I will have to assume the trend is up. If this trend become certain, it will face resistance at 23,847.

If it breaks with a new low, the support level is between 17,061 to 18,512.