Re-visiting DAX and FTSE

I was off for a week last week, going back to my hometown Kuala Lumpur to visit my mother. My brother went for business trip and I volunteered to look after her in his absence.

 I was in fact quite busy throughout the week, from going places to cooking some of her favorite food. It was quite tiring by the time I returned to Singapore. 

Worse still I caught some gastric flue on my trip and the first thing I experienced after reaching home was acid reflux. I first thought it was indigestion due to over consumption of food. But the issue persisted a few days and I am still not yet well till now.

I had not given a thoguht throughout this period as to what to write on ( ironically, every thing is typed out and nothing is written). Nevertheless, I have decided to look at Europe, and by Europe, I am looking at DAX and FTSE.

I originally wanted to tie this page to Colonization, but I found the topic to be to wide and deep and my brain cracked while writing (again, irony). I have discarded the earlier work and decided to 

It has been quite some time since I last looked at FTSE and DAX in my entry Checking on FTSE and DAX - 12th Dec 2023, which was done 12th February 2023. It must have been my fault on the wrong date typed in.

I have estimated at that time that both FTSE and DAX were moving upward with FTSE targeted for 8,060 to 8,278 while DAX between 16,824 to 19,892.

So how far did both go?

Fig 1. DAX weekly chart

DAX managed to climb further from 15,307 to a peak of 16,427 before retreating.  However, it's climb was not without difficulties. I believe there was a plunge right after my entry on February 2023, only supported by its 21-week moving average. 

It bounced further up but seemingly with much resistance, and failed to reach the lower objective of 16,824, which is the 61.8% projection resistance. 

So will it at least reach the 61.8% projection of its major move? 

Based on its more recent developments, it reveals a new level of minor resistances between 16,473 to 16,578. These are both 100% projection resistances from different formations. It would seem that DAX may have a tough time crossing this barrier and it will take lots of momentum to do so.

But it may not have the momentum it needs. There is a divergence on MACD on its recent peak, it does not mean a reversal now, but highly possible reversal on the next downturn. I suspect the 100% project levels will encourage to go down, at least with a major correction to its 55-week moving average.

Fig 2. FTSE weekly chart

I noted a possible reversal by 8,060 for FTSE, it was close, FTSE reversed at 8,046. It managed to find support only at 144-week moving average, twice. It failed to achieve higher high after the first rebound and retested the 144-week moving average the second time. 

So what do I make of FTSE? 

I can't ignore the fact that the reversal was very steep. Even though the rebound was equally steep, it failed to break the previous peak. The second drop was more gradual with bars tends to overlap each other, indicate to me a possible counter wave. 

I believe FTSE is on wave c of B. While its climb this week is strong, it stopped right below the 61.8% projection resistance of 7,689. It may correct before moving further up to reach its 100% projection of 7,961.

There is still no divergence noted on FTSE, but what is the concern? 

A retreating Bollinger going to meet with the 100% projection line. This may create a more prudent resistance when coincide with FTSE. But that will be a story for a later date.