Review of USD vs AUD against SGD

I went on a business trip to Vietnam last week, destination, Ho Chi Minh and then Hanoi. The trip was not really pleasant to me, none of my trips was. Contrary to many people's admiration of a job with requirement to travel, business trip is not really enjoyable. Even now, I still wonder why so many long for a job that requires to travel abroad. You are not going there for sight seeing, you are going there to work.

One might think that going to places like Melbourne or Sydney equates to a treat by the company. Yet, how many can imagine going to the poorer districts, industrial zones while staying in 2-3 stars hotel where you think would be more beneficial to the company's coffers?

I remember on one of my trip, I was given a treat by my "subsidiary" in Melbourne and Sydney. You might think " this is great!" But imagine that you are having Thai food in Sydney and "Chinese" cooking in Melbourne, then thinki how exotic you might get.

I have also been involved in exhibition overseas, I was one of the exhibitor. So this must be great exposure, one might say. But I ask you this, have you ever stand there without the opportunity to sit for a whole day, 3 -4 days in a roll? Do you know how much pain that will create on your smaller thighs?

Anyway, enough said about oversea trip (for the moment). Before I left for Vietnam, I have made an entry on USD and AUD versus SGD. I was bullish about USD and bearish on AUD. AUD has done an evening star while USD engulf.The indicators of AUD with toppish while USD at the bottom.

I am mildly surprise that the AUD remain resilliant while USD continued to show sign of weakness. So where did my prediction go wrong?

The first thing that I need to accept is that we are playing with probability and there is no 100% certainty. IF I have 100% certainty, I won't be worrying about risk, neither do I need stop losses.

Secondly, it might be my unconcious urge for USD to go up while AUD to come down. I learned this from NLP, my mind delete any signs of alternate readings. Just like the time my friends and I played AFP, we were so bullish about the counter that we ignored signs of the counter losing steam.

While there are subtle signs that AUD is toppish while USD is bottoming out, there is however no sign that these 2 are reversing, not yet, they are just early signs. In fact, there is a risk still that USD is going to weaken further, there is a double top measured to a level of 1USD to 1.2889 SGD. The relief part is that there is a tendency for divergence on the indicators, but learning the lesson from last week, let's not make the decision yet. Unfortunately the charts is not downloadable today.