An up-date on Dow Jones - Post Christmas

 My last read on Dow Jones was bearish since it potentially did a non-failure swing and crossed 21-week moving average. Dow was apparently not ready to do so. The week after my prediction, it reversed up. 

Before I move on, if you are looking at the chart on my blog, you will notice slight difference when compares to the real time Dow Jones. I am utilizing the charts on my trading platform and the numbers varies a little. Nevertheless, the shape and structure of the counters still applicable.

Fig 1. Dow Jones Weekly Chart

For the time being, it has not reached its previous high, there are some uncertainties in Dow. for the next 2 weeks, it retested the 21-week moving average support. During the week of Christmas, it closed with a green bar. with a relatively long tail (or wick in candle stick).

This is significant to me as I deem it to attempt to climb higher. What are the possibilities now? 

I was looking at the MACD, while Dow climbs to a higher high each time, its new heights are lowered. This is an indication of divergence. The tendency of reversal is high, I just do not know where.

Next, we ARE crossing Christmas, and my teacher ever told me that the feeling of festivity elevates positive emotion and period right after the Christmas has a higher chance of going up. I will then expect a bull for the coming week at least. 

So far, the trend of 21 and 55-week moving averages still support this direction.

Having said so, we should see some resistance at 36,564 since it is the previous high. setting up the projection measurement, we should see further resistance between 37,001 to 37,808.

If Dow decides to reversal downward in the coming week, then the previous estimation still valid.