Hang Seng Up-date

 A few weeks ago, I did a post-Christmas up-date on Hang Seng. A small reversal bar just formed at 61.8% Projection Support level. 

In general, I would consider if reversal at this Fibonacci point, it is likely to be on a correction. Further more, I was uncertain at the time since it was a single reversal bar, I have decided to let it develop further for a few weeks before looking at it again.

Fig 1. Hang Seng weekly Chart

So few weeks have past and there were 2 more bars of uncertainty, but the one dated 2nd Jan 2022 has a significantly longer tail pointing downward, and a nice long bar just formed on week of 9th Jan 2022, It is quite firm that Hang Seng is reversing up. The question to me is whether this is more short or long term?

The lines I drew on the chart are not trend lines, they are merely an indication of the trend gradient. One of my ways to tell if it is of main or counter trend is by looking at the gradient, a gentle gradient most likely mean counter trend while steep gradient main trend. The issue here however is that both gradients are the same. I can't use that for estimation.

Looking at MACD, it is clear that there is a divergence against the chart, so We are seeing potential reversal, but with such divergence, there tend to have 1 more dip before moving up. So I will assume a likely short term reversal. How far do I think it will go then?

Well, it did cross the 8-week moving average. It is likely to be temporarily stopped by 21-week moving average, forming a flag or pennant while supported by 8-week moving average. It should push towards 55-week moving average before reversing downward.

Now this is just a prediction and market does change its mind all the time. So be vigilance in monitoring its development.

A look at FTSE 100

 So far my TA is limited to Dow Jones, Hang Seng and Nikkei.

Lately, a thought came into my mind. May be I should look at more charts during the weekends? If so, what counters may be relevant to me? FTSE came to my view.

Fig 1. FTSE100 Weekly Chart

On the first look, FTSE is on an up-climb. The only Issue I have with it is the gradual gradient of the climb. There seems to be a lacking in excitement after the correction started 1st March 2021, Timing seems to coincide with the worldwide outbreak of Covid-19 (Wuhan virus).

Nevertheless, FTSE is till now supported by its 55-week moving average. Yes, the climb is gradual and as far as I can see, it will continue in the short run.

I am really not into this counter, it opens at 4:00PM in my time zone. This timing coincides with my starting to prepare my family's dinner, yes.  I am the chef of the family.

If I am in this market, I will continue to go for long until abnormality.
 

I have placed 2 Projection measurements on this chart since there are 2 corrections. I have also placed a retracement measurement due to the steep drop.

At present, FTSE has broken through the 100% projection and 78.1%% retracement line. While restricted by Bollinger envelop, signs are still indicating long. So where are the resistance.

I will put my attention on 2 ranges: 7,699 to 7,784 and if this is broken through, 8,184 and 8,296.

Consider the wave pattern, I estimate that FTSE is likely in counter wave since March 2020. It has not yet surge pass its previous high of May 2018 and January 2020. The range between 7,699 and 7,784 seems a plausible area for reversal.

Still I will need to see some drastic move like a reversal bar with long but failed penetration into the zone before it can be confirmed as reversal.

Anyway, time is the proof if I am right or wrong on this one.

Dow and Nikkei side by side

 A happy new year to everyone, although I feel that I am the only one in this blog, but still just in case.

I am doing my home work and for a change, I have placed both Nikkei and Dow side by side. 

Fig 1. Nikkei Dow Jones weekly chart side by side

It is interesting to note how Nikkei and Dow conform to each other move since April 2020, that was until Febuary 2021 where Nikkei went into a correction phase while Dow continued to climb. This was probably because The US government continued to pump money into the country through as form of Covid-19 subsidies while Japan was more stringent in its spending. 

Personally, I do not like this form of  "subsidies", it is an alternate form of bribe to the people and more like a quick fix instead of being a long term solution. Governments using this strategy are normally incompetence in its management of the country. The result is having more people being dependent on handout, becoming complacence and demand for more.  

For the time being, the climb of Dow Jones is stronger than Nikkei, evidence from the gradient of the 55-week moving average, Nikkei one the other hand is more gradual.

Further more, Dow Jones managed to climb higher by the end of 2021 while Nikkei apparently  in a congestion bad. I consider both indices may part their ways in the near future, at least temporarily. 

Placing Projection measurement, I am looking at a down trend on Nikkei bounced from 27.650 level but did not gain much momentum up-ward, instead it is in a congestion with bars overlapping each other. Once it break the 55-week moving average, the next support level will be between 27,191 and 27,214.

Dow Jones on the other hand may still have some where to go after breaking the previous high of 36.564. The next level of resistance will be between 37,035 to 37,885.

In the longer term however, I am seeing divergence in Dow's MACD. As such we will still need to prepare for a reversal for Dow.

An up-date on Hang Seng, post Christmas

In my last post on China, I used Hang Seng as a reference of its health. I estimated that Hang Seng should be on its way down. 

Fig 1. Hang Seng weekly chart

Hang Seng has just broken previous low and established a lower one, it fell into the range that the first level support is located. 

On the week of Christmas, it was stopped by the short term 61.8% projection support. However, there is not yet indication of reversal, firstly the bar is too small, there are also insufficient bars to show a clearer picture. It will probably take the coming week to have a clearer prediction.

An up-date on Dow Jones - Post Christmas

 My last read on Dow Jones was bearish since it potentially did a non-failure swing and crossed 21-week moving average. Dow was apparently not ready to do so. The week after my prediction, it reversed up. 

Before I move on, if you are looking at the chart on my blog, you will notice slight difference when compares to the real time Dow Jones. I am utilizing the charts on my trading platform and the numbers varies a little. Nevertheless, the shape and structure of the counters still applicable.

Fig 1. Dow Jones Weekly Chart

For the time being, it has not reached its previous high, there are some uncertainties in Dow. for the next 2 weeks, it retested the 21-week moving average support. During the week of Christmas, it closed with a green bar. with a relatively long tail (or wick in candle stick).

This is significant to me as I deem it to attempt to climb higher. What are the possibilities now? 

I was looking at the MACD, while Dow climbs to a higher high each time, its new heights are lowered. This is an indication of divergence. The tendency of reversal is high, I just do not know where.

Next, we ARE crossing Christmas, and my teacher ever told me that the feeling of festivity elevates positive emotion and period right after the Christmas has a higher chance of going up. I will then expect a bull for the coming week at least. 

So far, the trend of 21 and 55-week moving averages still support this direction.

Having said so, we should see some resistance at 36,564 since it is the previous high. setting up the projection measurement, we should see further resistance between 37,001 to 37,808.

If Dow decides to reversal downward in the coming week, then the previous estimation still valid.

STI bull coming to an end?

When I restart my chart reading "career", I wanted to make some changes to my techniques and focus on weekly more to look at a bigger picture. I do not want to focus too much on details because I have found that I would be looking at the tree and miss the forest. As time progresses it seems like the movements is leading me back to the daily charts, because no matter what, I need to monitor the reversal. The thing is that if there are changes coming, it starts in the daily chart.



Fig 1 STI Daily chart

The recent movement of STI has prompted me for a close monitoring as I have blogged earlier. I was relieved that the confirmation of the Doji star did not come last Thursday. However, probably these stars are omen in a way because by today there is a new formation, Engulf. This is right after another Doji Star followed by a 75 points bar on STI. Okay, all is not yet lost because Engulf still requires a confirmation which is tomorrow.

The RSI and Stochastic on both daily and weekly though is not helping, they are very persuasive to ask STI to go down. This will mean that the fate of STI is very much like HSI, testing its trend support.

The trend support on weekly basis is still at 2,576 while a possible resistance at 2,692. on daily basis the trend support remains at 2,581, coinciding with the 21 days moving average. It is also possible that STI is working on a triangle formation? Like my teacher said, it is like a flower slowly unfolding itself in front of you. So? Wait and see......