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Web thoughts-denzuko1.blogspot.com

My Charting Blog

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is or me to record my thoughts on the market. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts that I read and readers should not take it as absolute.

5/23/2015

Ruble ascending

Let's hope that I don't get sued for the title. It sound very like a movie I watched recently, "Jupiter Ascending". The title sound nice and I like the actress, although I could not remember her name. She as beautiful eyes. But the storyline sucks big time. The sequent is confusing and I certainly do not recommend this movie.
 
However, my blog is not about movie, it is about my interpretation of charts. 
 
I have recently noted that occasionally there are visitors from Russia to my blog. So I have decided to look at Russian Ruble. 1 set of data I have is Ruble versus Euro. 
 
Fig 1 Euro Ruble Weekly Chart

The data did not go as far as I wish it to be, only till 2007, and I am surprise that Russian Ruble is so small compared to Euro.  The good thing about charting is that it allows me to look at the big picture.

I recall Russia was in deep shit when it fell against the USD end of last year. Putin came up with a brave face to tell the world that all is in order, but I guess he was sweating then. The news at the time seemed to indicate that the problem was a recent event, but from the chart, the weakness of Russian Ruble is not recent but existed since 2008 and 6 years in the making. 

Base on wave count, it should have completed a 3 wave pattern by now and on its way to recovery.

The indicators have already been diverging at the last stage of its descend and therefore would be supporting such possibility.

So where is it heading? Well, looking at the past, it seems to be interested in flag or zig zag formation. Based on the recent congestion, therefore, Eur0.02 and there is a resistance a Eur0.019554.

Euro Dollar ... and SGD1.50 it shall be

To me, it is really fun reading charts, it is even more fun when I find that I am right. It gives me a sense of achievement.

I have blogged about  Euro earlier mentioning of a downward wedge with target of SGD1.50. So here it is.

Fig 1 SGD Euro Weekly Chart

The last time I looked at this counter, it was April 2015 before I went for my Business trip. I sill remember I exchanged Euro for SGD1.48 (meaning Euro probably at SGD1.46). Reading back my blog then, I estimated SGD1.50 as the objective. That was when the counter have not yet broken out of the wedge formation.

As I look at today's weekly chart, well, it is not on the dot, but some where near. This is because of a resistance formed during July 2012. So the question now is' "are we there yet?"

Now that I have the break out point, the objective will need some adjustment. With the same measurement but different breakout point, the objective actually move toSGD1.56. At this moment, it coincide with one of the Fibonacci's fan line. I believe that it will meet the fan line and hover around it while continue with its descent.

Referencing the indicators (Stochastic & RSI). While there are reversal, I think it may be a mid way retracement. Both indicators have shown divergence during wedge formation, my feeling is that this counter has not reach its final destination, there is still more up-trend to follow before t goes down again.

Elektromotive.....

Fig 1 Elektromotive Weekly chart

To be honest, I have no idea what the bosses of this company is thinking.  It is like those heart rate detectors at the hospital showing a person about to die, I remember its called flat line.

It gives me a sense that the bosses have little or no interest about the image of their company at all. This would certainly be one thing I would look into if I am to invest into a company, and if I see a flat like this, this company would really be thrown into the waste basket.

5/21/2015

Malaysian Ringgit strengthening

I have been busy the last few weeks, mainly work, and my partner at work arrange a training starting at 7AM tomorrow. I think he is crazy.

Anyway, back to Malaysian Ringgit. I have been observing this counter a few weeks ago. While the counter have ben climbing, its RSI seems to disagree.

Fig 1 SGD MYR weekly chart

In fact for every new high, the RSI is at a lower high. I got a feeling that we might be seeing a retracement coming soon, minimum support is MYR2.63.

5/19/2015

REalising the wedge of GP Batteries

I have earlier mentioned about GP Batteries. As I look at it again today, it certainly a counter real tempting for investment.

But looking at the daily chart, it tells me to wait it out.

Fig 1 GP Batteries daily chart

I have mentioned last round that a wedge is clearly visible on the daily chart, as I review it through today, not only the previous deduction stands, it is in fact realising the wedge formation. It has broken trough the envelop of the wedge and head down, it did retrace back to the envelop which is now a resistance to the counter.

Base on the next support level, I think it will crosses its minimum objective of 0.9 and head for 0.8 instead.

5/11/2015

SGD USD meeting its objective

My last blog mentioned the USD will retreat against the SGD, and it did.
Fig 1 SGD USD Weekly

After 2 weeks of absent, it seems that The USD actually hurried down to the neckline of 1.314 and stopped by this level.

Further more, the indicators are reversing up again. So I guess it would be a good time to buy the USD rightnow to further strength the position.

Come to think of it, this pattern looks very much like SGD HKD but in reverse.Probably becase HKD and USD are pegged.

SGD HKD @ Neckline, retreat starting

I have not been blogging for 2 weeks, been preparing for Business trip to Munich and Villach.

I first thought of bringing along my notebook so that I can look at the chart, but then there are too many things to carry and I have to let go of my craving.

Anyway, the counters I am looking at are quite towards what I am expecting.
Fig 1 SGD HKD Weekly

One counter I am observing is SGD HKD. I did mention in my last blog that it is time to go Hong Kong, inded it is true as HKD weakened to HKD5.80 to SGD1.00 now. Unfortunately this is also the neckline and it is beginning its retreat.

This is also confirmed by the Stochastic and RSI which are already at their peak. My guess is that the counter mght still hover a little while to collect enough momentum for the down slide.