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Web thoughts-denzuko1.blogspot.com

My Charting Blog

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is or me to record my thoughts on the market. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts that I read and readers should not take it as absolute.

12/22/2010

Dow Jones is turning down....

It is a relatively dull day today. I organized 2 meetings with my Engineers while my boss is trying to do some remote control. It is relatively uneventful.

The only thing I want to say is that the FAE from my KL office is such a jerk. I have this customer in his territory who have taken one of my kits and I want it back together with some feedback on what they want. Guess what he did? He referred me to another guy who happen to be located at Penang! It is as if the customer is not his responsibility at all.


Fig 1 DJIA Weekly Chart

I have not been looking at Dow Jones for a while because I felt that it is on side trend. When I look at it today using the weekly chart, it seems to me that it might be ready to come down, well at least temperarily since I am only looking at weekly chart.

The counter seems to be fulfilling a 5 wave pattern ever since July this year. It is doign the 5th right now because it poked through its previous high. If this is the scenario, the "c" wave is certainly a little small compare to "a". Nevertheless, the whole movement since March 2009 is about 61.8% retracement of the wave started October 2007. I gather that this whole move is a "B" before the great "C".

At present, the Stochastic is turning at its peak. The same with RSI except that it did not turn at its peak, it however indicated a divergence. So I guess Dow is showing some weakness.

The counter is right now resisted at 11,753 while supported by its 21 weeks moving average of 11,016.

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12/21/2010

I am feeling like holiday now

I was on leave from Friday till Monday and I went back to work today. While I need to work, my drive is very low, primarily because I am going on leave again by this Thursday. Yes, I am still clearing my leaves.

One may ask why not take the whole week off to have it cleared in one go? the problem is this, taking a lone absence from work also implicates that there is very little work for you and therefore you might be of less value to the company. So even when you need to take your leave, strategise, especially when year end is round the corner.


Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

As I look at STI weekly chart, I also kind of thinking that it too want to take leave. So far it has continued its down trend. This some how tells me it is going for a 5th wave? RSI and Stochastic is still coming down, so I guess it will be continuation? At present it is supported by the 21 weeks moving average at 3,108.


Fig 2 STI Daily Chart

The head and shoulder pattern is more obvious on the daily chart with right shoulder mirroring the left. At the same time, we also see STI is presently support by its neckline at 3,122. It is also interesting to note that unlike the weekly chart, both indicators are at the bottom but without divergence. So is there a rebound before heading south again?

My take is: If it breaks 3,122, it is heading south. If it gap down tomorrow with open below 3,122 and stay down, the down trend is even more firm, even if it will not match the minimum objective.

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12/16/2010

The completion of right shoulder?

I did not up-date my blog last night, partly because I felt I needed a rest, partly because I felt that it the market would not go far. When I read the charts on Tuesday night, nothing really interested me at all.

These 2 days, I am pretty hooked on "to Catch a Predator" and even googled on the program. I was surprise that it started its first program by 2004 and last episod (so far) was 2007 due to shroud of controversies and attacked by competitor networks.

Nevertheless, I feel that its a good program for deterance and awareness of sex predators online. So even if the producer's aim was the rating, something good came out of it.

I am actually quite surprise that after airing for more than 4 episods, potential sex predators should be vary and think twice before trying their luck on 13 year olds potential prey. They have done a total of 7-8 episods and still people willing to walk into the house without much thoughs. The most memorable to me is not the naked men ( there were 2 ), but the man who brought his 5-year old to look for the "teenager" for sex. What was he thinking?! Educate his son that its okay to have sex with a minor? I seriously doubt that his son would be safe from him at all.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Well, if I said nothing much happened, it would not be very true. STI has broken the envelop, in this case the neck line of a double top (small one) and went south. It tried to climb back up today with opening higher but fell back to yesterday's low.

If it goes all the way of the double top, it would be hitting the minimum objective of 3,118. This is quite coincidental to the present support level of the head and shoulder's neckline and 89 days moving average of 3,119. So I guess 3,119 it is.

While I am pessimistic about the pattern I see, the indicators are at the bottom at the moment and I guess temperorily the down side might be limited. The indicators might need to produce a divergence first before the chart turns.

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12/14/2010

Genting mimicking STI

I was introduced to a new program today by a fellow forumer. Well, it is not very new but its new to me. Its call Dateline NBC: To catch a predator. It is a program about trapping and catching peadophiles in USA. It is indeed quite interesting and the program runs a few states in US. If anyone interest in the program, you can just check up http://www.youtube.com. Watching the program is indeed disturbing.

One thing that you will notice is that most of the peadophiles aren't of marcho nature. They are either plum or thin, do not really seem with capability of social relationship and not good at expressing themselves verbally. These are not alpha males and therefore need to aim lower to minors. It is only through a vase seniority that they can feel power.


Fig 1 Genting Daily Chart

As I look at Genting's daily chart, I kind of link it to STI daily chart. Both has completed a left shoulder and a head. They are at present probably working on the right shoulder, provided that the market is turning.

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12/13/2010

I am getting old....

I went on a business trip last week to Bangkok, Thailand.The first thing that I asked myself was "where is my plane?" It was supposed to be an 8:25AM flight and yet I could not find the flight number at that time slot. It took me some time to locate my flight number which was retimed to 11:00AM. A check with the counter revealed that the flight was in late the night before and the crew have a mandatory 8 hours rest before they would fly again.

So what to do? I was there at 6:15AM, check-in with a complimentary breakfast coupon, have my breakfast at Burger King. I actually prefer Burger King's breakfast than Mc Donalds', its probably because my family has been having Mc Donald's breakfast more frequent than BK in the past.

Well, the next thing I did was to work at the airport, started with sending firy E-mails to my people to get them to work.

I reached Bangkok by 12:30PM (Bangkok's time), what greeted me at the office there gave me a scare. There was no body in the office! Turned out their boss brought them out for lunch and was only back by 2:00PM. I gave a short course to the technical people and visited one customer, ended my day at 7:00PM.

"That wasn't bad, I still can handle customer visits after all these years." or so I thought. By the third day, I screened through 6 customers, at least an hour each, repeating the same presentation and demonstration, making attempts to convince them to use our solution (with success). By the last time I finished with the last customer, I practically forgotten whose wanted what. I was in total exhaustion.

I could not recovered even after a night's sleep after my return. Every night I slept at 10:00-11:00PM and woke up around 7:00AM throughout the week end and I have not even fully regain my energy.

It was not used to be like this in the past. I think I am getting old.


Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

I wanted to do an update on STI last night but the service provider seemed to have gone off line. Well, what can you expect from the the Malaysian Malays?

As I looked through the weekly chart of STI, nothing has changed so far. It seems to be doing the second wave and might have even completed right now. Both Stochastic and RSI are heading south. The difference between the 2 is that Stochastic is closing in at the bottom while RSI is still half way there. So am I right to assume Stochastic might be hovering at the bottom for a while waiting for RSI?

On weekly basis, it is supported by the 21 days moving average at3,108 and resisted by the trendline at 3,201. Now this is the interesting part. This is the second time the counter fall below the trend line, I would be alarm if I am in the market right now.


Fig 2 STI Daily Chart

On daily basis, things are slightly different but my feel that they are not far off. Stochastic is at the top but turning while RSI is on its way down. So is the correction over yet?

At times, the piece looks a little like a B formation and might be finishing a rectangle, either that, it is forming a double top. It is trapped between 3,219 and 3,168, so crossing either of these 2 levels are quite significant.

Why is it more a 3-wave than a 5-wave pattern at this time? This is because the low on 7th Dec penetrated below the high of 29th Nov. It violates the requirement for a 5-wave pattern.

Another worrying thing is STI has crossed below the trenline last Friday and remained below even today. Now I am not very sure what the probability is for this to break down, I would at the moment considering a higher chance of down trend than up.

On daily basis, it is supported by the 89 days moving average at 3,117 while resisted by 21 days moving average at 3,187. The trend resisting the counter at 3,197.

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12/06/2010

Its been a hard day's night....

I was on leave since Friday afternoon. The purpose is to clear outstanding leaves and only 7 days are allowed to be brought over. It was supposed to be a full day's leave but I cancelled half a day because of a meeting with customer in the morning. Anyway, it was quite stupid of me to cancel 1/2 day, I have have cancelled teh whole day!

To start with, the meeting started 10:30AM and it lasted till after 12:30PM, I have lunched with my colleague and by the time I sent him back to office, it was already 2:30PM! By the time I reached home, it was 3:00PM. I just wasted 1/2 of my 1/2 day leave! Life was not that great after that, my wife asked me to do some repair to the house and I used up the remaining 2 hours to fix the wall and the bathroom cracks!

I am on leave today, but only less than half a day belong to me. I went for my Taichi in the moring after breakfast with my wife, then it was home for a short shower and rest. Right after that it was to the office to collect something I have missed and followed by fetching my kids. I have promised them a holiday after 12:00PM today and I have to be a man of my words. My parents weren't really like that and I have collected a lot of broken promises as a result, I don't want my kids to feel the same way.

Anyway, we have chicken rice for lunch, then off to Parkway Parade,where they enjoyed the arcades, eat yogurt, check up book stores and get one Play Mobil each on my tap. They are sleeping now so I guess this is the only time frame I have for my last entry before heading to Thailand.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

The chart was only up-dated till Friday last week, when I saw the chart, I was quite surprise of the free fall on Friday. It probably penetrated the high in the morning and plunged to the bottom by the end of the day.

At its peak, it failed to poke through successfully on the 50% Fibonacci retracement resistance. While Stochastic is still climbing higher, the RSI on the other hand is not. It is again a little difficult to make the call right now. My feel right now is that there is still a little to go for the correction (upward). The 21 Days moving Average is resisting at 3,184 while the 50% Fibonacci Retracement resistance at 3,218.


Fig 2 STI Weekly Chart

Looking at a higher time frame I see a slightly different picture. The Stochastic and RSI is totally in reverse of the daily chart. Stochastic is still on its way down while RSI reversed. But because it reversed on half way mark, it probably shows a correction instead of a reversal on STI.

The trend resistance/support for today is 3,178 while the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement resistance at 3,196. The last up-date I have is STI hovering around this region (3,198).

P.S. A look at STI chart on Today's paper give me the feeling that it is doing a counterwave. If this is the case, probably a is completed and it is doing b. From the looks of it, it could be wave 2 of A, if this is true, STI would be in deep shit.

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12/02/2010

Am I seeing a head and shoulder?

It has been a relatively busy day for me today. I am in fact packing for a trip to Thailand next week, its business. It has been 2 years since I have been to Thailand for product promotion. I stopped ever since the travel ban by top management ( cost cutting). So my company is way behind other competitors in market share, especially when Lighting Solution is concern.

My "favourite" engineer is not helping neither. As expected, she grumbled about me rejecting her leave application, not only that she lodged a complaint to my boss. I stood my ground and eventually she has to do it my way.

The thing with urgent leave is this, regardless what "confiential personal work" you need to do, you need to be clear on what you are doing. This is an unbreakable rule in the industry and even I have to obey such rule. I can't ignore the fact that she undermine the system and that trying to use my boss to manipulate me.

Guess what? At the end, she has to put in the reason, installation of surveilence system. Now I wonder what kind of confidentiality needed? Is she seriously think that I might invade her home?


Fig 1 DJIA Daily Chart

I was looking at the DJIA just now, I kind of interested in the formation it is doing right now. The set up looks more like a head and shoulders with objective of 10,370.

The indicators are also supporting the direction DJIA is heading, both of them are moving lower.


Fig 2 DJIA zoomed out

Zooming out a little, you would see a slightly different picture. Potentially, DJIA could be making a double or tripple tops. As far as I am concern, such patterns are downward reversal formations. Anyway, under such condition, the neckline is around 9,632. In that case, DJIA has somewhere to go and even then it is uncertain about its trend. Because, it could jolly well be a huge rectangle, afterall, it is a HUGE wave.

As for wave pattern concern, considering a 3-wave pattern, DJIA is only half way down. If it decides to go for a 5-wave pattern, then more likely it will be stopped only by the neckline.

Remember the head and shoulders that I mentioned earlier on in this entry? It seems to be an mirror image of a bigger reverse head and shoulders formed between May to July 2010. As a whole, DJIA has been in 3-wave formation since the congestion started April this year. I have counter so far a completion of A and B wave. So it is likely the C wave just started, meaning DOW with an eNd.

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Oh! I missed England.....

While having dinner with my relative from England, I just realized how much I missed the country.

Lee Kuan Yew always said Singapore is unique, but seriously, there is nothing unique about Singapore. I am the destination expert for Singapore in http://www.tripadvisor.com and I find myself having difficulties tohave break through in recommendation on places of interest. There are simply too little to go around.

England is truly unique, how often you have people chasing after "Today in Parliament" the heated debate on issues, members of parliament asking questions simply because it concerns the welfare of the people who supported him. The level of brilliance the prime minister is definitely shown in the process. His policies is constantly being scrutinized by the MPs regardless ruling party or opposition. Best yet, there is no party whip, MPs vote because they make their decision. The British actually watch their "today in Parliament".

Comparing to England, Singapore parliament is a joke! Preprepared questions, childish and inexperience handling of rebuttal to the oppositions, only "constructive" criticisms allowed. Worst yet, the minister of the policy or the prime minister have the last say. I also find the ministers somehow fail comprehension because they respond to the questions with answers leading to the question. For example if the question is " how is eating this makes you more healthy?", their answer is "yes, I have eaten this." The joke is that the speaker of parliament considered the question answered. How can Singapore move forward with this kind of parliament where policies is not properly scrutinized?


Fig 1 Wing Tai Weekly Chart

Tonight, I am reading Wing Tai through the weekly chart. The daily chart is too distracting. Wing Tai is supposed to come down because of a head and shoulder. It has earlier retrace back to the neckline after breaing it momentarily. The trouble is it is now clinging onto the neckline, refusing to go down.

What I also see is the indicators trending down so most likely the counter should be going lower soon. But I am uncertain judging from the lack of movement on Wing Tai. Partially because it is moving in side trend, partially because it is at the apex of the Gann Grid lines. The weakness of chartist is when chart go side trend, it makes a difficult read and you won't know when is the counter really going to move. changing trend of indicators only tells its reversal but not the momentum.

Wing Tai is presently clamp between the 21 weeks moving average resistance of 1.74 and 89 weeks moving average support of 1.678. I figure that it is quite a narrow band. Sooner or later, it has to break either up or down.

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12/01/2010

The 50-50 chance

Remember the female Indian Engineer that I mentioned much earlier? She is getting bolder after noting that with all her behavioural problem, no action was taken against her.

She has been applying for "urgent" leave recently, all taken on the very day. The first was a visit of relatives from India, then medical check up. Today it is to work on personal issues.

Seriously speaking, If there is a relative from oversea visiting, won't you bother to plan your leave to make sure you have time to accompany the relative? If you are scheduled with medical check up, won't you plan in advance the necessary leave to make sure it is approved?

She did not even bother with elaborate excuses today. She simply applied 1/2 day leave after lunch and went off without informing anyone at all! The leave excuse is "personal issues". I am sorry but for urgent leave, I requires proper explanation to pass the bill.

She must be thinking I am an idiot not to notice the frequency of her leave application. She is looking for job. If she manage to get it, good ridence! Anyway, she has nothing to lose at all,I am already making sure she is not going to get her bonus other than the 12.5 months ( yes, 12.5 months due to flexi-wage policy, no thanks to our Singapore Government). If fact, if she stays beyond January, she is going to get a nasty appraisal! I have always been going by the book, reward the efforts and punish sabotages. It will be no different this time.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

After reading the the weekly chart during the weekend and a brief look at the daily chart on Monday, I took a night off as my relative from England was here, we have a sumptious dinner at Vivo City.

I looked at the daily chart today and find it a little difficult to decipher. Primarily the indicators are at odds with supports and resistances. Both indicators show strong momentum of an up-trend (indicator wise) so it tends to lead STI upward. The only weakness in this is the lack of divergence.

At the same time, STI is now resisted by the 21 days moving average at 3,184, it is also situated at the apex of the Gann Grid lines. SoI guess its 50-50 chance of up and down.

While I felt that the wave seems to be short of the 5th of 5th wave, I am at the same time finding the last 2 days pattern to be more like a 3 wave pattern, but thenI can't confirm this yet.

What give me more confidence of a continuation up is the trend line support that I have drawn on STI.My teacher said before, if you have three points touching the trend line and rebounded, it is prudent. So the recent event see STI touched the trendline (in Blue) went mildly below and came back up today, this likely to qualify for a false break. There might still be a change of 3,400.

If however, it decides to go south, the neckline support at this moment is 3,121.Breaking this is likely to confirm a continuation downward.Further south is 89 days moving average support of 3,102.

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