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Web thoughts-denzuko1.blogspot.com

My Charting Blog

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is or me to record my thoughts on the market. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts that I read and readers should not take it as absolute.

3/18/2023

My father

 The early memory of my father involved mostly travelling, where my father was bringing from place to place. Both my parents were business owners and neither of them have time to take care of my brothers and I. 

Since my father involves in sales, he often was the one responsible of bringing me to my grandmother's place. 

While travelling, he would often play a cassette of Chinese songs. 

I loved the travelling time I spent with my father.

I still remember that he owned a Fiat mini when I first got to know him. It was a second-hand car, and the condition was not good. 

As my brother and I only get to spend our Sunday with my parents, my father would often telling us that we could go to the zoo on Sunday. Unfortunately, the car often would not start when we were ready, ending with a disappointment in the early Sunday morning.

My father just has his first business failure when I got to know him, this was mainly due to family issue. He resorted to sawing up woods to produce soft drinks crates for sale. Later on, he managed to obtain a recipe of Formica glue, giving him his first break through. Life was improving for him for a while. 

He lacked the capital to grow his business though, and the accounting of his business was really hand to hand. But at the end of the day, he managed to bring food on the table.

Due to the effect of war and poverty, he did not manage to get a proper education, nevertheless, he made it a point to enrich himself through night classes enabling him with knowledge of accounting, though without any official certification.

He was good on numbers, very quick in his addition and subtraction. In addition, he has a great memory, he can memorize any phone number throw to him. give him a name any time and he could recite back the phone number to you.

My father also inherited a rare genetical defect, his retina started to deteriorate since adulthood. by the age of 60, only around 20 to 30% of his vision were left. by the time he was 75, close to 90% of his vision gone. He was practically blind.

Yet, when we were on the road and we did not know the way, he was the one we asked for direction. We only need to describe the surroundings and he would start telling us where to turn and eventually led us to our destination.

During my primary school days, my parents left home early while reaching home after eight in the evening. during this period, I rarely see my father, let alone bonding with him. As both my parents' business were growing, more time was spent on business.

Well, my mother's saloon business was more promising, so my father decided to put in more effort growing hers. The result was spectacular, the beauty saloon's business once reached the second position in Kuala Lumpur, closely behind Kimmarie, which was at the top then.

At its peak, the saloon celebrated its 25th anniversary with a hairstyle show at a prominent shopping mall, showcasing the saloon's strength in the business.

All these was the planning, organizing and execution of my father's strategy. I can say that he really has a talent in business venture.

Unfortunately, the time he spent on my mother's business has taken a toll on his own business venture, it was in relative stagnation. Much time were spent on bank works for my mother's business which was very inefficient during the 70s and 80s. Often led to at least an hour to 2 spent waiting in a queue.

He has thought over additional venture, and at one point of time, he partnered with his brothers to start a hardware distribution company. Unfortunately for him, his brothers and sisters took advantage of his love for them that they abused their position in the company. The company was in disarray and the accounting was in a mess.

When I was 13, my father told me, " You have to follow me to work during the school holidays." To me it was the end of the world because my holidays were burnt. I followed him to work.

He set up his factory right outside my grandfather's old house in a run down village. It was a simple set up with walls made of wood. The manufacturing process involved flammable chemicals such as toluene and Hexane. I was not so aware of it at the time. It was not a safe environment to work in. So imagine that he was risking his life every day to make ends meet.

Following him to work is not without some perks though, I get to eat out with him. Our work finished by 6 in the evening, and we packed up and made our way back to the city to fetch my mother. 

If we were early, he would bring me to the bus terminal for some Teow Chew porridge. To be honest, I loved the 2 dishes that he ordered every time, braise toufu and salted vegetable, which I am still ordering every time I have this porridge nowadays.

If we were late however, it would be a simple cup of coffee at a coffee shop nearby before we made our way to my mother's saloon. 

He was forced to close his factory after a fire at an illegal firecracker factory and the government then issued a decree that companies handling dangerous material were required deposit of MYR100 thousand or owner would face jail if accident occur.

It however did not stop him from venturing forward. When one opportunity closed, he opened another one. He started a company cutting chipboards and pasting 2 boards together. A value-added service for safety door manufacturing. 

I came in to help him on this new venture as I have just finished my GCE 'A' level and was waiting for the posting result on the tertiary study. During this time, I learned to drive a forklift, and it also enable me to get closer to him. 

While he was a good in business venture, he was a terrible leader. He lacked trust in people, leading to loyalty issue. He needed at least 4 workers daily for the process but he was unable to retain the workers for a long time.

In addition, there were financial squabble on his customer's end as one of the partners saw red on the "profit" he was making and decided to open one himself. causing him his business.

It was the end of his business venture. His eyes failing him, my mother was not supportive of him in continuing this venture and we as his son were in the final stage of our education. There was no one to help him.

He was forced to retired.

Certainly, life has not been good to my father, it has never give him the chance to succeed. Yet, my father was not one who would give up easily. Even after his retirement, he has made it a point to be up-to-date on current affairs, he involved himself in properties and managed to gain a terrace house as well as a factory unit. 

My father loved my mother very much. He was very clear on her needs and wants. He a very loyal husband who would never be unfaithful. It can be seen with the effort he put in to help my mother reach the pinnacle of her life. It was unfortunate that my mother is a narcissist. Not only did she not appreciate his support, she was constantly critical of his weakness, which was his lack of sight. Her words on him were very hurtful. It is a wonder to me that his loyalty has never waded all these years. 

He also ventured into the stock market, which unfortunately got himself burnt numerous times, each time buying at the peak and held on to it al the way down. I believe there is still one or 2 stocks in his account now with close to zero values.

Later on in life, sickness caught up with him, he has hypertension, arteries blockage and undergone the 'balloon' surgery. Later, he was diagnosed with prostate cancer. But his determination to live on amazed me. 

Last year, the prostate condition was so bad that it blocked the bladder from releasing the urine, causing it to swell and pressed onto the kidney. His kidney was damaged as a result. A tube was shafted through his penis along his urinary track into his bladder to enable him to pass urine. This tube needed to be changed once every 3 months and he needed to go through the same ordeal over and over again.

I accompanied him to the hospital and it pains me to see him suffer each and every time, I did not voice this out but it is like a knife stabbed into my heart knowing the level of suffering he was going through. However, he was willing to go through this suffering simply because my mother asked him what would happen to her if he leave. He was always apologetic to causing so much trouble to me.

I love my father a lot and I care about him. What troubles me is seeing his sufferings and I cannot do anything except for accompanying him to the doctors. Waiting with him means nothing to me. I am his son and this is my duty.

On the morning of 11th March 2023, I woke up at 6 in the morning, completing my morning chores, sitting at my dining table drinking my coffee. I received a call from my youngest brother. It was strange to me as he never call at this kind of hour.

He told me that father has just past away, I was speechless, I did not know how to react. I did not expected this because it would only be a few days more that my family and I will be travelling back to Kuala Lumpur to see him.

My father has left this world, while I am sad that he departed, and I regretted that I did not call back that last few days, I am glad that his suffering has ceased. He lived a life the odds stacked against him and he stayed strong facing each and every obstacles, he made many sacrifices so that the family survives and ensure that my brothers and I grow up to be useful to the society. I wish that he will be going to a better place in his next life, which enables him to achieve his goals.

3/05/2023

Currencies March 2023 update

It was February 4th that I did an update on currencies titled Is USD on free fall? USD was seemingly at on a free fall the time. However, I also ignored the fact that the currency pairs were all in process of crossing the moving average belt, making it tougher for the counters to cross through.

In fact, the moving average belt seems to reverse the trend for USD.

Fig SGD weekly chart

In my last update, it was noted that SGD was close to its 100% projection support. Reversal happened since then. The upthrust of SGD is as strong as its downslide earlier, with similar steepness in the opposite direction.

Are we seeing USD strengthening against SGD? 

It might still be too early to tell. At the end of this week, its ascension is blocked by the 21-week moving average, producing a hang man candle stick. While so, the pattern does not look spectacular.

Another interesting thing on the chart is the MACD which has just crossed from the bottom. It is possible to be an indication of reversal. 

My suspicion is that it might go into a correction after this.

Fig 2. JPY weekly chart

Similarity is observed on JPY, except that JPY has broken through and stayed above the moving averages. There is a higher chance that USD will continue to strengthen against JPY from here on.

JPY is presently resisted by its 38.2% retracement line at 136.68. If broken, the next level is its 61.8% retracement at 142.58.

A point to note is the crossing of MACD, a similar situation to SGD.
  
Fig 3. EUR weekly chart

EUR is weaker than JPY, going against USD. It is presently stopped by its 21-week moving average. Nevertheless, it is presently on borderline support of 55-week moving average. 

Like both JPY and SGD, its MACD has also crossed from the bottom. It is more likely that the direction is still up for the time being.

Using retracement, the likely resistance level lies between 0.9611 to 0.9944.
Fig 4. GBP weekly chart


GBP is more interesting here. It seems to be in a rectangle formation. Unlike EUR, it did not break to a lower low, and reversed on reaching the previous low. As such there are 2 possibilities. 

If it breaks the upper boundary, then we are seeing an objective of 0.8848. If breaking the lower boundary on the other hand, the objective will be 0.7623.




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