Re-visiting DAX and FTSE

I was off for a week last week, going back to my hometown Kuala Lumpur to visit my mother. My brother went for business trip and I volunteered to look after her in his absence.

 I was in fact quite busy throughout the week, from going places to cooking some of her favorite food. It was quite tiring by the time I returned to Singapore. 

Worse still I caught some gastric flue on my trip and the first thing I experienced after reaching home was acid reflux. I first thought it was indigestion due to over consumption of food. But the issue persisted a few days and I am still not yet well till now.

I had not given a thoguht throughout this period as to what to write on ( ironically, every thing is typed out and nothing is written). Nevertheless, I have decided to look at Europe, and by Europe, I am looking at DAX and FTSE.

I originally wanted to tie this page to Colonization, but I found the topic to be to wide and deep and my brain cracked while writing (again, irony). I have discarded the earlier work and decided to 

It has been quite some time since I last looked at FTSE and DAX in my entry Checking on FTSE and DAX - 12th Dec 2023, which was done 12th February 2023. It must have been my fault on the wrong date typed in.

I have estimated at that time that both FTSE and DAX were moving upward with FTSE targeted for 8,060 to 8,278 while DAX between 16,824 to 19,892.

So how far did both go?

Fig 1. DAX weekly chart

DAX managed to climb further from 15,307 to a peak of 16,427 before retreating.  However, it's climb was not without difficulties. I believe there was a plunge right after my entry on February 2023, only supported by its 21-week moving average. 

It bounced further up but seemingly with much resistance, and failed to reach the lower objective of 16,824, which is the 61.8% projection resistance. 

So will it at least reach the 61.8% projection of its major move? 

Based on its more recent developments, it reveals a new level of minor resistances between 16,473 to 16,578. These are both 100% projection resistances from different formations. It would seem that DAX may have a tough time crossing this barrier and it will take lots of momentum to do so.

But it may not have the momentum it needs. There is a divergence on MACD on its recent peak, it does not mean a reversal now, but highly possible reversal on the next downturn. I suspect the 100% project levels will encourage to go down, at least with a major correction to its 55-week moving average.

Fig 2. FTSE weekly chart

I noted a possible reversal by 8,060 for FTSE, it was close, FTSE reversed at 8,046. It managed to find support only at 144-week moving average, twice. It failed to achieve higher high after the first rebound and retested the 144-week moving average the second time. 

So what do I make of FTSE? 

I can't ignore the fact that the reversal was very steep. Even though the rebound was equally steep, it failed to break the previous peak. The second drop was more gradual with bars tends to overlap each other, indicate to me a possible counter wave. 

I believe FTSE is on wave c of B. While its climb this week is strong, it stopped right below the 61.8% projection resistance of 7,689. It may correct before moving further up to reach its 100% projection of 7,961.

There is still no divergence noted on FTSE, but what is the concern? 

A retreating Bollinger going to meet with the 100% projection line. This may create a more prudent resistance when coincide with FTSE. But that will be a story for a later date.

Riot....

 Well, France is presently in riot for weeks now.

Nope, while I may be a little political bias at this moment, I am not talking about the riot in France.

My entry today is about riot Platform Inc. 

I have absolute no idea what this entity is about. It just popped up on the finance.yahoo.com list, as if trying to hint something to me. So I took a look, and it is interesting...and boring at the same time. Why?

Fig 1. Riot Platform Inc weekly chart

When you look at this chart, what do you see? 

I am seeing a round bottom or saucer bottom, with a handle already completed.

The last time I encountered this formation was on one counter during early 2000. It eventually shot upward aggressively.

How to predict the objective for this formation? 

I do not recall a measurement for this formation, the only thing I remember from my teacher was the width of horizontal congestion will result in equal length of vertical surge.

Using this principle, I can estimate possibility of Riot to reach above USD80. 

At the same time, it will also be useful to use the down trend to generate the possible retracements resisting the uptrend.

At present, it has reached the Bollinger envelop of 15.396. To be a little agressive, I will consider 38.2% retracement at 32.68 as the next level of resistance, follow by the 61.8% at 54.26.

What's happening at Anheuser-Busch?

 I was going through the charts this week, I just could not get myself to work on any of the charts. Most of the charts were already updated and I need some patience to wait for them to develop.

At the same time, I am compelled to type an entry every week and I have been contemplating what to write? 

Eventually, the one news relating to my recent entries. The CEO of Anheuser-Busch, Brendan Whitworth went on a    talk show to discuss his company's recent misfortune. The sales continue to dwindle and stock on continuation downslide.

It should be natural for him to use this opportunity to reach out to his customers to persuade them back to drinking his company's beer by acknowledging error in their marketing strategy. Yet nothing of the sort happens and it was so politically correct that it is a waste of time listening to him.

The question is: Does he know what went wrong and what he should be doing to rectify the issue?

I believe he knows what has to be done but he is not doing it.

It got me interested in looking up his profile that I obtained from Linkedin.com.

Fig 1. Brendan Whitworth profile

It is interesting to note that he began his career in the military followed by change to CIA, both emphasizing on discipline, environment is highly organized and with strict adherent to order and command.

He then made a switched to a private sector to Director of Sales in PepsiCo. This is highly unusual since it is a jump from public to private sector, where chaos is the norm. furthermore, he landed in a leadership position of director even though without prior experience in sales. 

How was he going to lead the sales team dealing with multiple chaotic fronts with little knowledge of how this field is like?

He was then jumped to Anheuser-Busch when he got multiple promotion from Global Director of Sales to Global Vice President of Tech Sales, Vice President of North Region, US Chief Sales Officer and finally Zone President of North America. 

The time frame needed for his earlier promotions were in the span of 1 to 2 years. For such promotions, it will normally take multiple years and a person really needs to prove himself with the competence to do so. Rarely have I seen so many vacancies at the top levels, making promotion with such ease.

I suspect he is a pawn placed in the company.

This would explain why even until now he is not doing the right thing, because he IS DOING THE RIGHT THING following the order of the one who places him there, after all, he is trained in his previous job to follow strict order.

He probably has no worry of being removed as he strongly believes that the organization will protect him for DOING THE RIGHT THING.

Anyway, it is just my own guess and it might not be true.