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Web thoughts-denzuko1.blogspot.com

My Charting Blog

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is or me to record my thoughts on the market. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts that I read and readers should not take it as absolute.

1/26/2011

Breakaway candlestick

I have started my Qi Gong routine again as a way to counter the hypertension issue. It has been some time since I did this. due to time constraint, I focus on the big and small heavenly circle with the whole body "massaging" (done by myself). I am not too sure of the result yet.

One more thing I noticed is that the blood pressure on my left and right hand is different! The right hand's pressure is about 10 steps higher than my left, so which should I trust?


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Speaking of STI, my update last night was a flag with downward pressure. It seems that STI is not yet ready to go down. The up-ward movement today formed a Breakaway pattern under candle stick. The only short fall of this pattern is that you need confirmation. So we need STI to go higher tomorrow.

The move is supported by the up-thrust of the indicators, both RSI and Stochastic are heading north, most likely this time, they don't want to show divergence.

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1/25/2011

Continuation

I am referring to my cough. It seems that after more than 1 week, 4 rounds of doctor (inclusive of one Chinese sensei), I am still coughing. I just wonder how I can get rid of my cough. I am still coughing every now and then, although it is not as serious as earlier times, it is still irritating.

As for the blood pressure, I did some read up on the issue. The one very reason why one cannot stop the medication is because no one knows if the normalization of the blood pressure is due to the drug taken or body healing. Therefore there is a tendency that the blood pressure will shoot up if medication is stopped and as a result danger of stroke.

I have talked to a colleague today, I estimated that he is a likely candidate of hypertension because of his obessity, of which I am correct. He mentioned that he did made a stop for the medication for about 1/2 year once. But there is a strange feeling (which I did not verify) and a sense of danger on his health caused him to start taking the medicine again.

So if I am to stop the medication, the first step is to find ways to really reduce the hypertension, take the remedy with the drug simultaneously and then slowly substitute the drug with the remedy. It will take a while for this to happen and I have put my plan into action only after CNY.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

It has been a while since I last read a chart (since last week), there were some lost data between 1st of Jan to 12th Jan 2011. I am not sure what happened during that period and I am hoping that it is a flat instead of protruding up, it will make quite a difference in terms of wave count.

So far, I see that both RSI and Stochastic is at the bottom and they are about to turn. But if I base on the theory, strictly speaking, I still need divergence for confirmation.

The pattern it is developing on the other hand, looks very like a downward flag, and this would mean a continuation to 3,146. Basing on wave count, this would be a "c" wave.The objective coincide with the present position of the 89 days moving average.

Just a spare thought on the issue. If base on my original estimate of wave count, we should be in a major C by now. If this is true, what's happening now is only the tip of the iceberg, there are more downside to come.

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1/20/2011

Its been hell of a week

I am referring to myself. I was sick for a whole week, started last Wednesday, I guess I mentioned part of it in my last blog. Continual coughing, fever striking at 2pm every day. Even when the fever is gone now, the cough is still with me.

But that is not as bad as what I have to decide on. For quite a while now my blood pressure was on borderline. When I visited the doctor on Sunday for the fever and the cough, he insisted on measuring my blood pressure and it went sky rocketed to 164! It was to him a dangerous level and I could get stroke or heart attack anytime. I was prescribed with medication.

Still it took me 3 days to decide to take the first pill, it is to me a very hard decision. I have been hoping for the last few days that a miracle would happen, it could be the sickness, medication that caused it to go high. Or some miracle that it will come back down to normal. It happened before, but it did not this time.

Taking the pill is like taking life term, once you take it, it is close to impossible to stop taking. You have to follow it faithfully everyday without fail.

The few days also let me looked at my own life, what I have achieved, what I have not. There are too much at stake now, my kids are still too young to care for themselves and I am still stuck with this present job,half of my goals are not even half way done! At times, I feel like a failure.

Probably taking the pill is a wake up call to me, I am running short of time and I really need to shape up.

Tonight, I am not up-loading any charts. For one thing, I need STI data to stabilize, there is a week long of missing data on the chart and this makes the indicators mildly unreliable. Probably next week.

1/13/2011

Under the weather..

I have not been well the last fes days. I am still not well now. I suspect that I am catching a cold. The strange part of my cold is that it kept coming back at night only. One thing for sure, I am also coughing right now and the medicine I take makes me drowsy. I just wonder if it also has an effect on my reading.


Fig 1 Cosco Daily Chart

I don't have chart for indices, the service provider is screwing up again, the last up-date on STI was 3/1/2011. The only charts I have now are stock and Forex. Even so, there is nothing much to look at.

Cosco for example has been climbing up. The only trouble with this climb is that it created divergence on Stochastic and RSI. I believe the market is coming down again.

Using Fibonacci projection, the resistance is at 2.36 while support 2.17.

If I consider Elliot wave, this stratch of wave seems to completed a 5 wave pattern. So it might be time to come down.

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1/06/2011

...and I thought the worst is over....

No, it is not the market I am referring to. Its my daughter's education. I thought that the most important part is to get my daughter into a good school. well, I was wrong, because my nightmare just started.

WE have just received a stack of message from the school board and the alumni. We are to meet the teachers on 22nd Jan 2011 (Saturday) and being encouraged to enroll our kids into enrichment class for Mandarin and English (for Saturday) and the greatest part is that its going to take the whole afternoon! Seems like there is no way we are going to rest on Saturday. The lucky part is that my daughter loves attending classes, I don't know why but I find her being very happy going to classes. I doubt my son be the same, he is the type who loves to be free.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

What I see on STI chart today is something called the separating lines (Candle Stick). This is a bullish continuation pattern and will need confirmation (higher highs tomorrow). What's more, today mark the crossing of the double bottom neckline, seems like it is going to be bullish for quite a while still.

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1/04/2011

A Transition in life

I have not up-date my blog for a while, this is because there is a small transition in my life. Well, the passing of 2010 means I am one year older, but this is not the transition I have.

My daughter is entering Primary 1!

Today is the official day my daughter starts her primary 1 life. It is a transition not only for her, but also for me and my wife. Things will be different from now on. No more chance of taking a vacation during low season.

The transition however, makes me feel older. I am also come to realisation that its probably time to make some changes in my life.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

STI did not break the neckline, it took the my few days absence to climb higher. What resulted is a double bottom which measures a minimum objective of 3,320. The indicators are at the top with no diviation of reversing yet. It is probable that STI would reach this level.

It is also interesting to note that the move now seems to take the 5th wave of the direction. So am I seeing an extended 5th?

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