GBP s looking good.....

I was checking on the charts in the afternoon at the end of my trading session. Yes, I am not trading 8 hours straight asa not all timing is good for trade, there are time when the market is so silent that I would end up wasting time waiting for a signal.

I nosed around the charts and came across GBPEUR. 

I made an entry on the situation in Britain titled Is Britain's economy in trouble? 11th October 2022. While the monthly chart indicated a continuation downward, the weekly chart showed some promising signs up-ward.

Fig 1. GBPEUR weekly chart

When I looked at the chart today, GBPEUR went up further and is testing the mving averages which is now stuck together. 

there is some momentum in GBPEUR but I am not sure if it is enough to break. At the moment it is just a gut feeling that it might break the resistance and continue upward. 

There are still some concerns though, the bars bodies are overlapping and it kind of indicating a counterwave behavior. Still there is a need for it to have a final outburst before reversing. 

At the moment, it is violating the previous low and if successful, will be an early indication of a reversal.

Anyway, no measurement today, I have to see if it will break the resistance this or next week.

So Truss did something right by cancelling the tax cancellation, and the new prime minister Rishi Sunak seems to the market quite some positive impression.

 

Meta ..... there should be a moment of self awareness

The first time I came across meta was under the term meta model expressed in NLP meant for probing of the mind. It was model after Virginia Satir who is a great family therapist and is a great tool in getting into the mind of people. I ever used the questioning technique to make people cry. Well, don't judge me for that, it was therapeutic. 

Then Mark Zuckerberg renamed his company Meta, I guess he wanted it to have a more holistic approach. Definitely not a good idea as the market perceived it as an attempt to distract people from the ill performance of the company. 

On a serious note, Facebook (previous name of Meta) started appearing woke after Trump was elected president. Mark Zuckerberg event went to the extent of sponsoring part of the last election hopefully to influence the outcome. 

Really not a good move especially when it involves a business entity. When the company started to be driven by political ideology, it loses its priority as a profit focus company. Because it takes side in the political arena, its business decision tends to be bias. Such is the case of Facebook or Meta when they started censoring opposing views claiming extremism, it started losing membership which is the greatest asset of its business. So get woke, go broke like every other business ventures.

There is quite some talk on Meta this week, primarily its stock price, claiming that it has dropped 28% within the week, and that was after Meta complaint that men are difficult to handle. I have decided to take a look.

Fig 1. Meta Weekly Chart

I am not showing the complete chart here as it goes all the way bac to 2012. It went the lowest of 17.55 on Sept 2012 in that chart. as of this Friday, it went to a low of 96.38 and closed at 99.20, a far cry from its peak at 384.33. The present value is a mere 25.8% of its highest point.

I assume it's listing in 2012, it took 9 years for this counter to grow from a mere USD17.55 to USD384. It only took 1 year for it to drop all the way to 99.20. I can't imagine if a person short this counter at its peak and ride it all the way down, he must have made quite a lump sum.

Mark on the other hand, should be panicking, he needs to answer his shareholders whose share are getting close to toilet paper value. Meta really needs to change its captain to do a turn around as the previous strategy is no longer effective. May be the company needs to start checking in with its members to see how it can improve itself, rather than riding on the Mark's latest ventures, which is a virtual reality concept adapted from Second Life many years ago. 

Back to the chart, the way I look at it, Meta seems to be on a 5 wave down. Now some may ask how is this possible, should down trend be on a 3-wave pattern? Yes and no. It really depends whether it is doing an A wave. While its plunge is rather serious and close to 100% retracement, it is highly possible to be in A wave. 

By using the 3rd and 4th wave of the A wave, I can estimate 2 support levels, 133 which it has surpassed, and the next level is 69.97.

But considering the aggressiveness of its descent, we might not see a B wave. It is possible that Meta is going under. At this point of time, the descent is too steep, meaning strong momentum in the direction, the 89-week moving average just crossed the 144-week in golden cross indicating more down slide even though there is very little space for maneuver. This is further supported b the alignment of all moving averages.

Probably Elon Musk can start considering adding Meta to his collection. Wait till it drop further and may be buy at a lower price than Twitter.

Let's do a Nikkei 225 up-date

It is an uneventful eek this week....Well not very uneventful. something did happen on Hang Seng on Monday after the closing of the 20th People General Assembly on Sunday.  ALL CHINA RELATED MARKET FELL HARD! However, it is still in he direction of my prediction in The HSI monthly chart, After thought of HKD and China indices and Contradiction, contradiction...... So not much to talk about for the time being.

I have also done an up-date on Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJIA) last week with Is Dow Jones reversing again?. DJIA reached the 55-week moving average this week, moreover, it crossed and stayed above the level, and the bar is longer than the previous week, seems like the momentum is getting stronger. I guess 

Guess I will only have one counter to up-date then, Nikkei 225.

 Fig 1. Nikkei weekly Chart

To be honest, I am a little reluctant to discuss about Nikkei 225 here. It is still in a potentially counterwave. While it has moved up this week, it failed in testing Nikkei heading lower is high. 

Where will it go? 

I am not sure if I have given an update on this, using projection measurement, its next level of support lies between 23,108 to 25,444.

Duing its last few lows, it was supported by 144-week moving average and managed to stay above the retracement support at 25,292. Considering the present setup, it is possible the next round of downslide will break this leveland head for the retracement between 21,874 and 23,567.

Matching the result of both measurements, I think the 23,108 to 23567 is highly likely. 

What about the other way? I would consider the Bollinger envelop at 29,062 to be the resistance.

Is Dow Jones reversing again?

 I have been actively posting new entries lately and now including a mid-week article. But the mid-week article stopped this week.

This is not because of my laziness. 

I was doing a revision of the charts on Wednesday when I realized that there was close to nothing that I can up-date on. Most of the counters are movements in development that was already included in my previous up-dates. If I am to type in anything at all, I am going to repeat myself.

I have decided that there would be no entry during the week and waited out for the weekend. Plus, there is a more important event to focus on: My son's GCE 'O' level written examination starts this week! I have to cater to his convenience.

Even till the end of the week, I am still not seeing much big deviation in the market. I have addressed currencies in my entry last week, with focus on SGD. 

Even with "Hoo Ha" on the 20th General Meeting of CCP, it did not make much difference on Hang Seng. The meeting is already with foregone conclusion from the start, Xi is going to get his third term, and I foresee it as bad omen for China, Hog Kong and Taiwan but good for other countries in Asia Pacific region. Xi is going to flush Hong Kong down the drain and create a mess in Taiwan affair.

So is there anything interesting?

Fig 1. Dow jones Weekly Chart

Dow Jones has been supported by its Bollinger band the last 2 weeks and  shot up this week with a firm bar barely touching the 144-week moving average from below. Has Dow Jones actually reached its objective?

Using porjection measurement, apparently it fell short of reaching the 100% mark and recoiled back to cross the 61.8% support turned resistance at 30,672. It maintained above this mark at the end of the week.

I suspect that it will continue its present trend till it reach the 55-week moving average presently at 32,430. In general, the counter is still bullish on the long run as the moving averages are in sequence supporting an up-trend.

Fig 2. Dow Jones Daily Chart

The counter looks more interesting on daily chart, with a long bar crossing the 55-days moving average after a mild congestion forming a flag. This allows me to measure using projection for a resistance at 32,159, above where 144-day moving average is presently.

Coincidentally, this is also the rough objective of a small double bottom of the counter. 

By then it will be testing the 61.8% retracement line.

I am just not sure if it leads to reversal of other counters.

Monetary intervention on SGD and a case for the currency

 The Singapore monetary authority intervened on the SGD exchange rate right after my post on the currency last week. My understanding is that it will tighten its monetary control not through interest rate rise but through a tighter exchange rate by "re-centring the mid-point of its exchange rate-based policy band up to prevailing levels but kept the slope and width of the band unchanged" ( quote from Singapore tightens policy, keeps door open for more moves on hot inflation | Reuters ).

To be honest, I am not sure what that means except that it is interfering on its exchange rate. The effect was a plunge upon the news release on Friday. However, the currency seemed to lose some of its gain by the end of the day.

Before moving on, I need to bring up an issue with https://finance.yahoo.com.

Fig 1. SGD weekly chart shown in past week

Fig 2. Present week's SGD weekly chart 

At the time I was doing my last entry on SGD, I did not take note that the chart was in fact not up-dated. This led me to conclude a high chance further SGD weakening. Reassessing the chart this week however, the closing of last week did not surpass the open of the previous week. My conclusion would have been more conservative.

So whose fault is it? It would be me, I did not do my due diligence to verify the data.

Anyway, let's move on.

Looking at the bar development, it seems that the news influence from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) did not cause significant changes. While there was fluctuation, it nevertheless stayed within the band, suggesting to me that SGD would not appreciate significantly in the coming week. 

My feel is that it will retrace back towards its 8-week moving average (1.4185) before heading upward. Worst case scenario would be its 55-week moving average support presently at 1.3812.

To be frank, Singapore is a rare country in the world with capacity to maintain the stability of its currency, considering its caution spending behavior leading to sizeable reserve. It is viable to gauge how other currencies perform against this counter.

Fig 3. SGDJPY Weekly Chart

I went on a business trip in Japan in 1999. The exchange rate at the time was around ¥60 per SGD. Technically, JPY was double of SGD. My wife went for a tour in Japan with her friend 2 to 3 years ago. While JPY depreciated against SGD at the time, it was still around ¥80+ per SGD. 

The chart today, however, SGD is technically at par with JPY. With JPY104 per SGD. Considering the set up on this chart, there are still some up-side for SGD, the next level of resistance will be at ¥107.

Fig 4. SGDAUD Weekly Chart

The first time I encountered AUD was in 1982, Asian Currency Unit (ACU) was a hot investment at the time when the interest rate of AUD deposit for instance was around 15% per Anum. The exchange rate at the time as around AUD1.00 to SGD1.45.

 Even when I went on business trip in mid 2000s, the exchange rate at the time fluctuated between SGD1.10 to SGD1.20.

The chart today shows a closing of this week, SGD1 will get AUD1.1094. It has presently past the 50% retracement and indicators maintain continue strengthening of SGD against AUD.  The next level of resistance is close at AUD1.1337 to 1.1841.

Fig 5. SGDNZD Weekly Chart

New Zealand is like a little brother of Australia. In fact, they have very close relationship and Immigration and Custom are more relax for citizens of both countries.

Like AUD, it used to be much stronger than SGD, while not as strong, it was at least SGD1.20 per NZD during the 1980s. It is now NZD1.255 per SGD.

The SGDNZD chart does show a strong appreciation of SGD against NZD. It has already surpassed the 61.8% projection of 1.2012. The next resistance level is NZD1.315.

There is a contradiction with NZD. It has just reached the previous high of NZD1.2570 and retesting its resistance level. As a result, a shooting star was formed. While in contradiction with the strong moving averages support on for an up-trend. I suspect there might be a correction coming for SGDNZD. Its performance in the coming week would be important.

However, should it surpass this resistance level, NZD1.320 will be a high possibility.

Fig 6. SGDEUR Weekly Chart

SGDEUR is interesting, the pair appreciates after a long congestion, making it a little tricky in conducting measurements. The ascension is with momentum and presently congesting at its 61.8% projection level.

Using the projection measurement, the next level of resistance will be 0.7361, very close to its present closing of 0.7208. If I consider the "double bottom" formation, on the other hand, I see resistance at 0.73702.

It is possible that SGDEUR may be reaching its limit for this round considering the close proximity of both resistances. But with strong support from moving averages, we might be seeing a correction instead of reversal.

Fig 7. SGDGBP Weekly Chart

Surprisingly, SGDGBP is the best performing chart this week even after the fiasco from prime minister Truss introducing tax cut by increasing nation's debt.

A reversal pattern was formed by 25th September 2022 and congested with small bars followed on the subsequent 2 weeks. 

Does it really indicate a reversal? Possible but I am not firm on this due to strong moving averages support. What I will do is to set an order on the low of the small bars in case there is a break-out from the congestion.

But bear in mind that it is highly possible that the pair is entering a congestion corrective phase, with possibility of huge fluctuation. Every moving average it goes in contact with will likely cause a rebound. 

Alternatively, it may continue to climb higher, but with the "reversal bar, it will at least be slowed down, climbing with a gentler gradient.

I have been thinking go of what to do as the ascension of USD is concerning. Is there a currency that I can park my fund on? But going through this exercise, it seems that SGD is stable enough as a safe haven to me.

Is it time to buy gold?

 I came across this person, Jim Rickards on an advertisement on youtube.com. He was very negative on USD and cautioned the viewers about the danger on digital currency where government will have complete control on the population leading to totalitarianism even in democratically elected countries. 

He pointed to the Canadian government stamping the trucker protest by freezing their bank accounts as an example and noted that with digital currency governments won't even need to go through the commercial banks. They can track all transactions through the central bank itself.

I did not go further in the advertisement. I believe he is pointing towards holding of assets as means of loophole to the digital currency. One of which is gold that he is quite positive of.

This reminds me of another proponent to gold, Robert Kiyosaki. He is also negative on the paper dollar as he believes that it does not contain value, which is why he prefers to hold asset, and gold is his preferred choice.

Here are some videos on them.

Considering our present situation where USD is rising while inflation is going through the roof. Is buying gold the right strategy?

I have an earlier article on gold The inflationary indicator, Gold, that was on the 10th of July 2022. At the time, gold was heading to the neckline with the projection of the zig zag. I also noted the possibility of a double top formation which at the time was incomplete. If neckline is broken, then we should be seeing a much lower value for gold in the future.

Fig 1. Gold Weekly Chart

Well, it has broken the neckline and is retesting its resistance. Moreover, Gold has now broken through all the moving averages, while testing the neckline, it is also retesting the 144-week moving average. 

with the double top formation, the next level of support based on expansion measurement is between 1,289 to 1,436.

It is to me really not the right time to buy gold, better to sell and wait for it to drop lower.

On a side note, as gold is an inflationary indicator, and it is coming down, does it not mean that we are having deflation? Then why are things still getting more expensive?

 

I believe the issue is USD. depreciation of gold is a result of appreciation of USD, it is therefore the inflation in US that is in control, the strengthening of USD only leads to it exporting its inflation to other countries. this includes the increase in borrowing cost due to higher interest, exchange losses due to stronger USD.

USD is really in a dangerous position right now. Should there be one day when other countries are reaching their tolerance limit, they may forego USD in favor of other forms of exchanges. Already, Saudi Arabia has already agreed with China to trade oil in CNY, and China-Russia trade not through USD.

By then we might really see the collapse of the USD. 

Is Britain's economy in trouble?

 

There are multiple videos on Youtube.com recently indicating UK economy is in trouble and about to collapse.

UK has not been stable since their exit from the European Union. Liz Truss is the third prime minister in line after Terresa May and Boris Johnson. Strategically, I did not see a very specific direction set for the country since the break-up, with only a single policy unchanged, that is follow the US lead, not only that be US poster boy.

" How do you know?" You might ask. That is a good question.

There are 4 elements in in marketing call the 4 Ps: place, promotion, prices and personal selling. A seasoned marketeer will make use of any of the 3Ps for their strategy and Price is the last choice on their list. when you move to price strategy, you are out of option.

when the first thing Truss promised for her premiership is to cut tax, it is already clear that there is nothing she can offer to the people, and the only thing to do is to cut price, and in this context cut tax.

Personally, cutting tax is the worst thing one can do. It means lesser capital to run programs in the country including infrastructure maintenance, national security such as military, law and order and safety, as well as nation building such as education, training, business support and health.

I still recall my time in UK during the 90s, when I stayed in one of the poorest cities of England, Bradford. Its wool industry has just collapsed, and the city council was with little fund to run the city. The place was very gloomy and run down with little option of growth. It was a sorry sight.  

I went back with my wife in 2001, I wanted to show her the university that I was proud of. The city it seemed has taken a turn to the worse. At one point, my tears rolled out of my eyes, not able to accept the state which Bradford has reached.

Anyway, enough of divergence. Truss strategy to finance her policy turned out to be issuance of bonds, which means increasing the country's debt! When this did not settle well with the market, they further claim that they can also print more money to support the country's need. they are definitely the biggest fan of the US.

So how is UK doing economically?

 We first look at its currency since it was much affected by Truss political gimmick. However, I will not compare it to USD as USD is rising against all other currencies. I have to compare it against a more related currency, I will use EUR.

Fig 1. GBPEUR Monthly Chart

From the monthly chart, it does not look good on GBP. We can see frfom the chart that it dropped from a high of EUR1.50 in 2007to a low of close to parity in 2009. Although it managed to strengthen till 2015, its decision to leave EU again caused it to fall till 2017 when it started to congest till this year.

At present it is resisted by a series of moving averages, tested and retreated from the 144-month moving average. However, its behavior thus far resembles that of a counterwave with bars overlap.

We can derive 2 zig zag patterns from its movement. Using the movement between 2007 till 2015, I will expect support level at between 1.1237 to 0.9274. This is evidence from its repeat congestion for years between 1.10 to 1.20.

In addition, another zig zag is visible. The support level from this is even lower at between 0.97865 to 0.8302.

The support levels is not looking good for GBP as it is going to be weaker still comparing against EUR.

Let's get closer then as the short-term target may be more important.

Fig 2. GBPEUR Weekly Chart
With a closer look, there are another 2 zig zag, the most recent one has already been reached. So let's focus on the larger picture. Measuring with this set up, the support level found to be between 1.12289 to 1.06360.

However, it may seem that the 1.12289 support is strong as a potential reversal (inside the circle) on this pair, breaking the fall and pulling it back into the Bollinger band. We might see a damp in its descend in the short run before it makes another leap up-ward. 

So it is a good thing for Truss to U-turn on her tax cut policy.

What about the economy then? I will look into the FTSE.

Fig 3. FTSE Weekly Chart

The thing with FTSE is that while it is at the top at the moment, it fails to achieve a new high against the previous peak in 2018. In fact, its momentum starts to taper off and presently testing the neckline at 6,788. If it breaks this line, we are likely to see an objective of 5,889.

If based on the zig zag measurement on the other hand, it will not be easy for FTSE, support level is between 5,964 and 4,898.

However, for these levels to be realized, the neckline has to be crossed. For the time being, I believe it is highly possible since it has already broken through the moving averages, return to test and resisted.

Well, UK is still not at its worst presently, but the future is gloomier as it seems.

In interesting view on USD and crude oil

 This is a very interesting video on USD and what might break USA.

For years, USA has been reckless in their treatment of USD. They continued to seek the easy way out disregard the wellbeing of others.

Maybe it is time that they do a self-reflection and watch Spiderman.

"With great power comes great responsibility".

It is not meant to be...

I did an entry in the middle of the week Interesting development in SGD...and I missed the entry point on SGDMYR, I was excited about the possibility of SGD reversal. It would mean a probable relaxing of inflation in the country.

However, I cautioned to suspend my judgement as the week is yet to complete and I promised to follow up on this currency.

Fig 1. SGD weekly Chart

Apparently, it was not meant to be, mostly likely due to the news on OPEC. 

SGD completely retraced itself forming a hammer. While the body indicate a lower closing, its closing remained above the previous open. additionally, it floated above the 78.6% retracement resistance at the end of the week.  

It maintained a strong indication of an ascension the coming week.

We may end with a much weaker SGD against USD, with resistance between 1.4540 to 1.4752. 

Crude oil reversing up...with power.....

It was quite a long time since my last up-date on crude oil in August 2022 titled Is crude oil creeping up again? I was in opinion at the time that it was congesting, while the support level mentioned in Crude oil up-date 16/7/2022 stated at 86.11.

After months of tranquility on crude oil, we finally received a very bad news on this commodity. OPEC+ has decided to cut production by 2 million barrel a day beginning 1st November 2022! This after the meeting among the 13 nations of OPEC together with the 10 allies of Russia.

It is definitely not good a news for the consumers, it indicates a rise in oil prices especially upon winter arrival, which the northern nations need the fuel most.

It also raised accusation of the west that OPEC is siding with Russia, which was refuted by OPEC itself.

As a result of this decision, the oil price shot up overnight. 

Fig 1. Crude Oil Weekly Chart

Crude oil reached the support that I estimated and went further to a low of 76.25 last week. It also coincides with the support of 144-week moving average. A reversal at this point could mean the completion wave, which I believe is a 3-wave counter wave due to the nature of its move.

The ascension this week is strong with a bar of long body that penetrated both 89-week and 55-week moving averages. This is significant, as I deem 55-week moving average to be a significant support-resistance level. It will then be possible that crude oil comes with a mild retreat to retest the 55-week moving average support before continues on its journey upward.

Where will it be heading?

Using more immediate projection set up (in blue), I am seeing resistance at between 129.98 and 143.73. This will mean a new record for oil, at its worst, it may reach 161.20 (127% projection).

By then the cost of oil will be so unbearable for many countries.  I resist to think what might happen next. At the back of my mind was Desert Storm. Let's hope that we won't go that far. 

Interesting development in SGD...and I missed the entry point on SGDMYR

 This is the fifth day of my quarantine for Covid-19. I would have been very happy if I am working under a firm, Covid-19 patients are still getting 7 days MC and this would be a good opportunity to take a good rest from work even when you are healed on the 4th day. Unfortunately, I am working for myself and I can't deceive myself. sigh.....

Anyway,I was on CNY during the weekend with a simple entry China intervention of CNY . However, as the week coming close to the end, it seems like the confirmation has not really arrived.

Fig 1. CNY weekly chart

I mentioned during the weekend that its movement is important this week as it will confirm or deny the reversal formation of the shooting star. It is Thursday and CNY barely moved. 

Is it possible that the Chinese government saw a retraction of CNY descend last week and thought that the worst was over and therefore no action needed? Or maybe they are the work on Friday people deciding to monitor the whole week before taking action? Or is there a different fraction of people who are selling CNY while China selling USD, thereby neutralizing the effect?

Nevertheless, if CNY maintain this pattern till the end of this week, it is likelihood that reversal is still not in sight yet. 

Anyway, while glancing through the currency sector, I did a check on SGD yesterday. I recall my last entry on SGD was 1st May 2022, titled Re-visiting USDSGD, I can't believe that it was that long. I estimated the resistance at 1.40, it broke through with its peak at 1.449. While I looked through SGD yesterday, I found something interesting.

Fig 2. SGD weekly chart

Apparently, SGD also did a shooting star last week, except that its body was green that may still indicate a continuation.

Beginning of this week, it opened higher, but receded and even broke the low of last week's low. 

This created a very different scenario; SGD formed an Engulfed pattern. Even though it has still to reach the end of the week and required another week of movement for confirmation, I am seeing potential reversal here for SGD.

What does it mean?  Possibly cheaper chicken at the supermarket? What might be more important is a cheaper oil price. Why?

While oil price was dropping the last few weeks, it was because the strengthening of USD, it did not translate to cheaper oil price locally as long as currency of the country I reside depreciates against USD. The depreciation neutralizes the lower oil price.

There is another assumption I can make from this, USD may be weakening or correcting after its mad dash up-ward.

I may not want to estimate its support as yet, since the formation is not completed. I will definitely come back to this counter for a more thorough study.

What of its neighbor, Malaysia?

I took interest in this counter because I wanted to convert some Malaysian Ringgit to SGD, and I wondered when it was a good time to do so?

Fig 3. SGDMYR weekly chart

I did a brief glance during the mid of last week and noted a flag formation broke out and at the time it reached the 21-week moving average support. It has not reached its objective. I figured I can wait.

Well, that WAS a wrong decision.....

It failed to break the moving average and rebounded, then went higher this week. It is presently resisted by the Bollinger band. But looking at the behavior of the bar and the band envelop, I believe that it will go higher. It may congestion outside the envelop next week.

SGD is strengthening.

The sad state of Credit Suisse

 I came across this video on youtube.com describing a simple Math Problem that no one can solve. It is an interesting video and I can't help but to think how similar it looks. The Mathematical problem behaves exactly like a stock market chart. 

The Simplest Math Problem No One Can Solve - Collatz Conjecture

Why do I start my chapter with this video?

While last week's focus was on China Yuan, this week is on the possibility of Credit Suisse going bankrupt. 

Yes, there are news on Credit Suisse claiming that it may be going the way of Lehman while the investment bank seeks to re-assure investors that it can reverse the situation. So I took a look at its chart.

Fig 1. Credit Suisse Monthly Chart

Credit Suisse reached its top in 2007.Ittumbled in 2008, the year that Lehman collapsed. It was on a down trend since and did not manage to turn around. Its present value is a mere 5% of its peak.

The chart looks very similar to that simple mathematical problem that eventually coming to a stop. 

If this is so there is really little chance that Credit Suisse can turn itself around.

Why am I pessimistic about this? I have seen this pattern before, many times.

There are a lot of counters on SGX that reached their peak, then started to fall and eventually reached a flat line. Similar to the end of that simple math problem, that eventually loops 4-2-1.

On its technical set up, I am seeing new low with strong resistance from all the moving averages.

Credit Suisse, established since 1856, may really come to an end.

China intervention of CNY

I have done more regular entries on this blog including additional article during mid week. That was until this week.

First of all, I travelled back to Kuala Lumpur to handle some family issues since last week and only back on Friday. 

Addition to that, most of the counters that I monitored were in the direction I forecasted. So there was no need for additional up-date.

Finally, I am hit with COVID-19 flu! It happened when I was on my way back to Singapore, started with dried and sore throat, followed by body ache and feeling chill and hot. At first, I thought I contracted Dengi or Malaria fever because of that. So lucky me.

Anyway, the ART test was negative until this morning, and very strange that the "test" bar appeared very strong while the control bar too some time to appear.

As a result, self-isolation for 72 hours before my next self-test. I also need to rest more to counter this virus, even though it is not as deadly as the first generation.

So is there anything that I need to up-date since most of the counters are in progress as expected? 

There is much hype about CNY the last week, as if it is dooms day for China with the CNY depreciation. So much so that The People's Bank of China is prepared to intervene. They warned the local banks to stop selling CNY and they are prepared to sell of USD to stabilize CNY.

Fig 1. CNY Weekly Chart

In my last up-date on CNY China warning banks not to short CNY? I have set a resistance level at 7.144. CNY has surpassed this level during the week. However, as a result of its intended intervention, It caused CNY to strengthen and a shooting star is formed. 

It is possible CNY to reverse at this point, but with a correction. The bar this week still requires confirmation by the next week's movement. But it is worth noting.

 Anyway, need my rest now.