Water water everywhere, not a drop to drink

This phrase somehow is realted to my situation right now.

I did my home work, I managed to estimate the turning of the market and I am able to know that market turned on Wednesday. Yet, I can't buy a single share right now. Why? Because I am flying off to Vietnam by Monday, I am on Business trip for a week! There is almost no way I can track the performance of any counter that I entered. The up-trend should not last long if my estimation of this up trend is correct, it might just be over a week long. Sadly I have to choose to abstain from this counter wave because I can't be in control during the week.

Another thing is bugging me right now. The indices from Asia markets have not been up-dated for the past few days. The last set of data was on 26th May 2010 and the system simple did not have anythign after that. Some time I really don't know what my service provider is doing, I am really considering changing service provider once the term ends next May.


Fig 1 DJIA Weekly Chart

Base on the weekly chart, Dow seems to be supported by the outer arc, and also the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 10,120. Further to that, divergence is noted on RSI indicating that it is reversing up.

My take is at the moment is that it will be contained in a congestion band with resistance at 10,495, best scenario is 10,827. Having the 21-week moving average at 10,505, it might be difficult for Dow to pass this level.


Fig 2 DJIA Daily Chart

The Daily Chart is in sync with the weekly chart at the moment, both indicators are reversing up, my only concern is that RSI itself is shoot up FAST and it will reach its peak in no time at all.

I am not sure if I have type this in before, 21-day moving average has already crossed the 89-day moving average. It is an indication of trend reversal! The 21-day moving average is resisting the Dow at 10,438 while 89-day moving average at 10572. The Dow is also at the apex on Gann Grid line, creating an uncertainty on its direction.

I beleive short term wise, it should be up but it is a down trend on long.

The suicide cases at Foxconn

I am not putting up any charts today. Instead I am putting an entry on the suicide cases at Foxconn in China. To date there are 14 cases of suicides and it is serious enough to affect even the CEO to fly to Shen Zhen for damage control.

The culprit it seems is the strategy of the management to force the workers for over time. I believe on hiring, the workers are required to work an 8 hour shift. If this is so, Foxconn should be having a 3 shift system. Yet, from what I heard, there were only 2 12 hours shifts!

This is strange but as my understanding of the manufacturing rule goes, for 12 hours shift, the workers are required to work an alternate 3-day and 4-day shift. This means that Foxconn needs 4 batches of worker.

I believe Foxconn is trying a cost saving on the workers. By hiring only 2 batches of workers, they can get the workers to agree on a 6-day week, then by forcing them on compulsory 3 hours overtime a way, that completes the coverage of the workers requirement, plus cost saving on one batch of hiring.

The problem is such work load drain out the workers. They can work but not for long. Further to that, my understanding that the management themselves are not really workers friendly. They do not treat workers with respect, instead, they assume workers are naturally lazy and need to be whipped to work. This is a typical mentality of a slave driver.

Sure there are facilities for recreation and unwinding, the problem is that no time is given to the workers to use such facilities.

The saest part of it all is that the top managment sees a pay rise as the solution to the suicides. I was discussing with my colleague and both of us acknowldge that money was not the problem, in fact the take home pay is around RMB2,300, quite a good earning for the workers. The president himself still have no idea that it is their system that is the problem, suicide is only the symptom.

The workers lack the self worth, their life were like being sold to the company and no longer belong to them. Their freedom is taken away by the contract that they needed to sign every month which forces them to perform the grooling long hours work. That foxconn is having is a sweat shop.

It seems like the very few who jump found a way out for themselves. If even their lives cannot be controlled, at least they can still control their death.

What Foxconn workers need is not a pay rise, it is a total overhaul of their ways of operation.

As my understanding goes. Foxconn is not alone in the sweat shop condition. It is merely one of the many Multi-National Companies (MNC) EMS which operates this way in China. My friend told me that Flextronics is worse, and I wonder about Solectron which also relocated itself in China.

AUD vs SGD is coming down...er...going up

So is the title a little confusing? If you look at the chart, it is not.



AUD has completed a double top formation and it has broken through the neckline at 122.674. Not only that it is more than 70% of its objective downward. The full objective (minimum) is 115.323.

Both indicators on weekly basis are at the bottom, turning up. Although in general, it still has to go down a little more, it is going up, first, back to the neckline, standard procedure.

The support is seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement @ 115.070. Seems like it is not too far off at the mement.

On a side note, I always find it strange that Australia has a strong economy. I find that the things there are damn expensive, the pay are high and they are very particular about margins (difference between cost and price) it must be above 12%. Singapore will take anything with a 3% margin.

USD is moving up

My boss came to me today asked about the schedule for my trip, I told him that it would be Monday. He raised concern that I would only have today and tomorrow to prepare for the everything since Friday is a holiday. I don't know, it seems that he may not know me well enough. I always prepare in advance which makes me look a little like very eng eng cheng cheng most of the time.

Chapter 2 of Sunzi Art Of War clearly highlight the importance of preparation. Many have ignored such advice.

Well, he really needs to understand me a little more.


Fig 1 USD versus SGD Weekly Chart

The chart looks like a bottom formation and USD has broken ranks with the head and shoulders objective, it over penetrated the neckline and now doing what seems like either a reverse head and shoulders or double bottom. Either way, its good news, the difference is timing. Double Bottom is more immediate while reverse head and shoulders would mean another few months to wait.

Both formation have the objective of 14,833. The pattern would be confirm with crossing of neckline of14,240. I would at the moment not comment on the negative end which would be a rectangle continuation if the reversal patterns failed.

STI - The Reversal

I am going on a trip again. No, not tomorrow but next Monday. I am heading for Vietnam for 2 seminars. My vendor wants to have a road show to push for the brand to be inprinted to every person in Vietnam. The trip will take about a week, 2 1/2 days in Hanoi, 2 1/2 days in Ho Chih Minh City. It such a pity because it is time for counter wave and I should be close to the market.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

STI has again out performed itself. It has broken the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement support at 2,667 and closed below it. At the same time, it has completed the 5th wave, at least this is what I think. The indicators are also showing divergence, as long as tomorrow end closing up.

I think the 4th of 3rd wave is in order by now as STI is now supported by the positive gradient of the Gann Grid lines. It should be climbing for quite a while. Even though it closed lower than 8th Feb 2010 (2,665), it is still possible with a head and shoulders with negative gradient neckline. Then again, I can consider the breaking of trend line and we have a double top. Measurement of objecitve should not be deferring too much, though.

The 4th wave might be a period of congestion, if I base on the length of the left shoulder, it will take around 3 months to finish. But not likely to follow the same height at 2,947. This is due to the 2 moving averages of 21 and 89 days.

Specking of moving averages, both 21 and 89 days have completed a golden cross 2 days ago, I have missed this earlier. It is now confirm that a reversal has resulted. We are in a ber market.

The Head and Shoulder on CapLand

Now let's hope that I am referring to the right counter because my data base only tells me it is Capita. I believe this chart is Capital Land, or Capland for short.


Fig 1 Capland Daily Chart

I started off with using Weekly Chart but I found the chart looks very quantised at weekly level.The daily level looks much better.

Looking at the chart, I see a head and shoulder with objective of 2.785. It might however head back to the neckline at 3.83 first.

The indicators seems to be heading up with potential divergence, but I won't bet on it.

What kind of job that you want to do?

During an interview in the past, I was asked what career I am looking for in a job? This is a very interesting question because different age group view it differently. In fact I feel that it applies more toward those young green horns who have just entered the market.

It is more important to them because they have more than 20 years ahead of them and one wrong step and you are in deep trouble for long time to come.

When I started my career path, I wanted to be an Engineer because this has been my life long ambition since the age of 4. At 7 I was inspired by Thomas Edison and by 14 I heard of Leonardo Da Vinci. These 2 have been my idols.

While this is my ambition, reality has never been kind to the path I take. I love the job of an engineer because it is dealing with machines. When I first came out, I told myself that I do not want to deal with people. Machines listen, people don't.

But what do you know? I ended up handling 4 technicians, which later on increased to 15. Then during secondment to China, I took care of a head count of 40 operators. When I switched line to marketing, I have to face client ( apparently they are also people ). Even now, I head a department of Engineers with me the least knowledge in technical term.

Still I don't like managing people because like the cause of third rule, history repeats itself because human never learn.

Technical analysis is very different, it is dealing with human but the code is written in the charts. The trick is to properly reading the chart to get the right pointers. I am standing in the middle of a crowd and yet away from it when I look into a chart.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

My last words last night was "what should I be buying?"

I scanned through my target list last night to see which counter would be good for a short term gain and I was quite dumb founded when I realised at the end nothing that I am certain would be a good deal. Well, Fuyu was a good one with target till 0.12 but I was already expecting it would have moved up by this morning.

The STI was like what I expected climbed all the way up and at one point reached a peak of 2,748, a total of 47 points coverage. It however retreated until the day closed at a mere 22 points gain.

The pattern failed to conform to a morning star formation. Worse, I have a shaky feeling that the worst is not over. The wave since 13th May till now seems to be incompleted with the present upward movement to be the 4th wave and there is a fifth coming.

The fact that STI is still clinching on to the negative gradient of the Gann Grid is not helping neither and I feel there some more room to go on the down side. Although both RSI and Stochastic has shown a reversal at from the bottom, there has been no divergence, which I see as an important indication of reversal.

The most important point now is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement support at 2,667. If STI breaks this line and stay down, most likely we can kiss the right shoulder good bye because STI is now having a double top. It is like one forumer posted, 80% of the counters have shown signs of BEAR.

I look like a Roast Pig today

for the last 2 days, I have been volunteering at my temple Buddhas's Light for a Vesak Day event at Punggol. We were having a food fair. Normally one will think that most food fairs consist of inferior and inadequate servings. You will be surprise about the food that were presented at this fair.

The price of the food for patrons are a little more expensive than outside food, but this is the third year the temple organises this event and the food are considered best sellers and they are not stingy with their servings.

Yesterday I had a bowl of Kuey Chap and abascus, with that I was fulled. Today, I have Hakka Lui Char and Spring Roll and again I cannot take any more after that. In fact, there are patrons who went back to the stalls and complained that the servings were too big untill they could not try the food from the other stalls.

I help to prepare the food in the morning and because I are part of the logistic team, I helped take care of the traffic crossing. It is not as easy as one think because this is a management of people and people normally don't listen to warnings, I have fathers who simple cross the road with his kids in arm against on coming traffic even when warnings for him to stop. Somone were so scared of the sun that they ran across the street ignoring the on coming HUGE trucks.

I have my share of hardship, I was the traffic warden for 5 hours on the first day and 5 on secondl. The first day was quite good to me because of the cloudy day and it rained in the morning. The second was less of a mercy, I stood under the scorching sun! It continued to burn as I guide people crossing the street. By 3:00PM, my face and hands were all red, I am in fact well done. But then, its a fun experience.


Fig 1 DJIA Weekly Chart

Since its last dip, I have not been noticing Dow for 2 weeks. It was to my surprise that Dow went all the way down close to its previous dip! At the moment, it is supported by the 89 weeks moving average at 10,125 and 9,895. But it is resisted by 10,495. There are about 370 points in between.

The RSI is reaching the bottom but the Stochastic is still on the way down. If only base on RSI, I would suspect that it is about time for Dow to rebound. The point 9,895 is crucial because this is where Dow confirms the top formation. If it breaks now, then we would have what's like a double top formation.


Fig 2 DJIA Daily Chart

On Daily basis, it seems very like a right shoulder is formed, the only trouble is the right shoulder is very small as compared to the left. I Nevertheless, I feel that we should ignore apossibility of a right shoulder and instead say that the head formation is completed with now making the right shoulder.

The indicators are at bottom at the moment but with no divergence. It is also supported by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 10,126.

I wanted to have a little more entry tonight be with the condition of my roasting, I need a good rest. Anyway, looking forward to tomorrow's rebound, what should I be buying?

A surprise from STI

STI gave the traders a surprise this morning, well, it is more of a shock and surprise. It opened with a gap down of 58 points, and at one point went all the way down by 77 points to 2,676!

As I did my entry last night, I recall 2 support level that I have mentioned, 2,751 and 2,667. I was really expecting STI to hold on for a while before further drop but it seems that STI cannot wait at all.


Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

Looking at the weekly chart, the plunge fall short of reaching the 23.6% fibonacci retracement line. At the same time, it can be seen that STI is supported by the 89 weeks moving average.

Both the indicators are reaching the bottom. However, they have yet to show sign of reversing.


Fig 2 STI Daily Chart

On daily basis, both indicators are also at the bottom with no sign of reversal yet, but they are bottomed. What interest me is that the gap down while shocking seems to be trying to create a morning star. This however needs to be confirmed, but my take is that Monday is an up day.

On a side note, STI stopped shortly above the 23.6% retracement line of 2,667. I believe this is the second point for the neckline formation, and in head and shoulders, the neckline is inclining. So now B wave would result in the right shoulder.

STI breaking the outer Fibonacci arc

On my last entry which I played with the Fibonacci arc, I mentioned that STI would be following the negative Gann gradient to reach the outer arc. I was expecting that the outer arc might some how hold the STI fall.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Well, I am at least partially right, STI followed the negative gradient all the way down. What I missed is that STI broke through the outer arc and went further than 2,800, it stopped at 2,753 today. So now what?

In the first place, both RSI and Stochastic are in the second bottom, RSI is also exhibiting a potential divergence indicating STI would be reversing. So the next likely thing I would suspect is that STI clinching on to the outer arc, moving upwards.

Nevertheless, I consider this downward movement a 5-wave pattern and I suspect it has already completed its move, we should be entering B wave by now.

The support levels that I see for now is 2,751. But STI is likely to hit the 21.6% Fibonacci retracement line at 2,667. Coincidentally that would be the neckline of another potential head and shoulders.

My guess is for STI next is a counter wave B which likely to retrace back to 2,950 region.

Wing Tai is crossing over

While typing the title, I suddenly feel like I am the Ghost Whisperer. I am not really sure what's my previous entry was on Wing Tai. I assume it was about a potential head and shoulder formation.


Fig 1 Wing Tai Daily Chart

So what did I mean by crossing over. It is all about the neckline, Wing Tai has just crossed the neckline today which could mean the maturity of the formation and that now it is going to head for its objective @ 1.186. However, to be sure that it is a true crossing, it must see the light...okay, it is not the show. What I mean is that it must remain below the neckline for the next few days, otherwise it would be a false break and the whole set up has to be re-caliberated.

At present the indicators are heading south meaning that the momentum downward is quite strong, chances are Wing Tai is going to break. If I use the rules of Elliott wave. We should be at a C wave and the formation is a zig zag pattern. Using the length of A wave as reference, Wing Tai should have an objective of at least 1.43. Therefore it is still in progress of completion.

Talk of the town today -- the Euro

I am still not very well but I am back at work today. It has been grulling 8 hours until the time to knock off. the whole day I have been in process of writing up the speech to the presentation that I have created. It is not for me but to the presenter, I actually created a presentation for someone else to present.

Anyway, things have not been quiet nor mundane at the stock market, STI for instance dropped more than 2% to below 2,800 level, beyond my expected level. But then, this entry is not about STI. EUD is the talk of the town today.


Fig 1 EUD Monthly Chart

As it went, Germany introduced measure to curb naked shot, ending up causing panic over all markets, including the devaluation of EUD.

Base on my last entry on EUD, I was expecting about SGD175 level to be the objective of the fall, this was base on its 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line. Certainly dropping to a level of 170 is a little out of my expectation. However, 175 was just a reference created from Fibonacci calculation and it is not as strong as support line.

While saying so, I was expecting EUD to at least rebound towards the neckline before continuing down to its objective created by the double top formation. So it seems to me now EUD is in process of the C wave.

The objective of the double top is 162.436 while there is a support at 165 region. I gather that there should at least have a short pause by the time EUD reaches 165.

Anyway, the indicators are both at over sold region and they have remained there since they reached the bottom, monthly and weekly. By right a rebound should be at the corner and since I am using a monthly chart, the rebound should not be an event of just a few days.

HSI could be in trouble soon....

I have some errant to run tonight, and as a result, I started reading my charts at late hours. So tonight my entry should be relatively short.


Fig 1 HSI Daily Chart
As I look through HSI daily chart, I did not consider its 229 points rise today. Instead I looked at the pattern that it is forming. The thing that come into my mind is: "Double Top" or head and shoulders, depending on how you see it.

It is now getting very close to the neckline at 19,423. It is also clinching on to the negative gradient of the Gann Grid.

One thing that I supposed it to happen is a rebound when it reaches 19,423, but it would not hold and eventually break the neckline. The objective for the Double Top is 15,675.

Both indicators are below 50% and moving down at the moment, indicating an increase of momentum downward.

On wave count, I see a completion of A with a 3-wave a, zig zag b and a 5-wave c, it followed by a zig zag B. I will consider the present situation in HSI is either on 4th or 5th wave of C, which also contained an extended 3rd wave.

The chance of going further down is much higher than up. So breaking the neckline is quite certain. HSI needs a miracle to thurn the tides around.

Okay, this is a little scary

I just wrote an entry on SSEC last week (I think it was the start of my vacation) and I drew a projection line for its objective. The index was moving up last week ( base on Thursday's data).


Fig 1 SSEC Daily Chart

When I open the SSEC file today, I am in a little bit of surprise. SSEC fell back from its upward movement and landed on my projection line!

Of course I am quite happy with this because it is like the market is listening to me! However, I have to get over such Euphoria because the line happens to be close tot he support trendline of the downward movement and that it is coming down to meet its objective and not adhering to my command, I only happen to get it right this time.

The use of Fibonacci Arc on reversal

I haven't done any entry the last few days. For one, I was on holiday, while I went through the charts, I did not see much change needed to my earlier entries. Thirdly, I fell sick, again!

This time I am not alone, my wife were with me together. Season for mangosteen and rambutan just started and we happened to munch a little too much of them. Both of us came down with sor throat and fever the next day. Can you imagine to go on tour and need to stay and rest in the hotel? Well, I guess this is what it means by "together, through thick and thin".

Even after we reached home yesterday, the sickness followed, we went to the doctor and were given MC, I am still recovering as I type this entry. It is strange that medicine is supposed to make you feel better but in the process it is making you feeling worse.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Anyway, I did not get a chance to look at STI yesterday and did not realise that it fell with a gap down again. The fall in the end was not that great, a mere 22 point. The interesting part is a Fibonacci arc that I have put in place using the 5th wave measurement.

I was look at STI on Saturday ( I was not yet sick then ) and I was wondering when it would go to the next level? Apparently it just did yesterday. My guess now is that it will clinch back to the arc for a while before it goes further down. It is fast reaching the Gann Grid ressitance with negative gradient at 2,853, which I think would result in another fall following the gradient. Most likely STI is to hit 2,800 following this gradient.

The thing with the whole move is that it looks more like a 5 waves movement at this point of time, Which means to me that this is the beginning of the bear move, there will still be a B and C after this which is A. Rather to say that we are going to have a second dip, we are likely to be in the second dip now.

MYR Shot up

My last entry on MYR noted a penant in the making and I mentioned that it is likely to make its move this week. Well, it did!


Fig 1 MYR vs SGD Weekly Chart

In fact, MYR Shot up on 13th May 2010 with a gap. This is 2 days after I change some of our money to this currency!

Okay, it is not that bad, because it shot up only by SGD0.01. I donno, if I change MYR1,000, I am paying SGD10 more. Changing MYR 10,000 would mean SGD100 more. If convert to stock market, this is a penny stock!

Anyway, with MYR moving up on it's penant, it also become apparent of a double bottom formation resulting in objective of SGD44.9158 per MYR100. It should stop some where round there and retrace back to around 42.50, forming the right shoulder of the reverse head and shoulder, if this is what it wants to do.

A reveiew on SSEC chart

It is 10:00PM at night and I am now in Shangri-la Golden Sand resort. My wife and children are in bed right behind me while I am keying this entry at the work desk in the hotel room. One good thing about hotels and resorts in Malaysia is that they all come with free internet access and WIFI service. This is one service which hotels and resorts in other country requires a price to pay.

While one may think, " Wow! Good life you have there!" Its not actually as good as you might think. If you search the hotel location on Google maps, you will realise that it is way out of the town area. A taxi ride one way will need MYR30 per direction and it takes almost 30-40 minutes to reach even the outskirt of the town.

It is also highly humid here and it is a rainy day today. We were walking out for dinner and it is as if we are soaked in water when we came back to the hotel. It is not because the rain was heavy, the moisture on our body simply refused to leave.

The place isn't that great in the day because all shops are closed. It is only in the evening time the street side market started to open, which ended up looking like Phuket or Bangkok's night market. However, the ambience is a far cry from that of Thailand. There is not enough space for pedestrians walk and you are on the road from time to time. cars just zoom by and we can't help but to feel insecure most of the time here.

We went for dinner at Eden. It is a well known restaurant in Malaysia. We noted that it is the last night of opening at the Ferringhi's branch because the place is going to be renovated and re-opens only by July. So We thought it might be a good idea to eat at the restaurant on its last day of opening, and boy were we wrong.

The restaurant did not take in any stock, so they run out of fish, prawn, crab and even chicken. We just managed to order a few dishes which was still available, nevertheless, the dinner tasted quite all right, and ambience were satisfactory. We ate right next to the beach, seeing people para-gliding, riding horses, jet-ski, etc. The only problem was the pesy flies disturbing our dishes.

Anyway, I have decided to type something on the shart again. At first I was really finding little to talk about, STI and DJIA are where I expect them to be, nothing much neither on USD. Nikkei just started its way down after the wedge break out. So I took a look at SSEC.


Fig 1 SSEC Weekly Chart

My last entry noted a triangle broke out for SSEC and I was puzzled about having only abcd waves while lacking the e. When I looked at it again it is different this time round.

On weekly basis, because of the removal of some details, the major waves look much clearer. The down trend from OCt 2007-Oct 2008 was no doubt the A wave, the move from Oct 2008 till Aug 2009 was the A of B wave, and from then till now is a B of B wave. The B of B itself is a 3 wave pattern which completed a, b and now doing the c.


Fig 2 SSEC Daily Chart

Looking into the finer details of the Daily Chart, the triangle is not so valid since the lack of the e wave. However, I notice another pattern of a head and shoulders with a smaller left shoulder.The pattern already completed and SSEC broke out of the neckline at 2,973. The objective of this head and shoulder is 2,419.

Of course it won't head there in a single move, it still has to go back and connect back with the neck line before going further down. Already it is meeting the Gann Grid support (+ve gradient) and the indicators on both Daily and Weekly basis are at the bottom. So this index is poising to move north. I think it is likely to follow the positive gradient of the Gann Grid and would need to question its position again by 2,924 (Gann Grid Apex).

Penang here I come......

I am going on a trip tomorrow, destination? Penang!!!!!

Yah! I know, there is nothing to be too excited about, it is not really exotic, relatively cheap and culture not similar to Singapore. So what for going?

Well, after the heavy spending on Perth last year, we feel that we have lesser fund for this year's trip, and we are not spending a lot of our leaves for tour in the first place. So Penang is a great place for a quick get away. Anyway, I really need a break, work in the office has been how should I say? uneventful and not really motivating. I really need to let go for a while.


Fig 1 HSI Weekly Chart

It has been a while since I last spoken on HSI, neverthess, the forumers have always refer to HSI when come to STI's movement.

The way I see it, HSI is not looking good. A potential double top in the making base on the weekly chart. Its neckline is 19,423. HSI stopped at 20,212 yesterday but it is descending. Although it is on the positive gradient of Gann Grid line, it is also reaching the apex which quite often indicate a change in direction.

The indicators are also descending and they are now below 30% mark. This would be one good sign which means that its descent might be limited. Most likely because it is reaching its neckline support level.


Fig 2 HSI Daily Chart

On daily basis, HSI indicators support a climb, but its rate of increase is higher than that of the climb itself. So I guess what the indicators shown is a counter wave.

While I am looking at a potential double top, I can't help but to notice yet a possibility of a head and shoulder, with left shoulder formed between July till August 2009. Both patterns share the same neck line. If the formations come true, the objective for HSI would be 15,675, a 4,000 points fall fro here.

The only way to confirm otherwise on HSI would be the point when it surpasses 23,099, the peak of its latest move in November last year.

A review on Genting

Eventhough I am not going into Genting again for quite a while, I still look at the chart.


Fig 1 Genting Daily Chart

While I look through Genting, I find it strange. Both indicators on daily basis is either peaking (RSI) or turning down. This in contrast to its price pushing to higher high. I understand that both indicators are for measurement of momentum so it might still be possible, but the gain is quite extraordinary.

Using Fibonacci retracement, it can be seen that today's move is actually stopped by its 38.2% retracement @ 1.02. This also coincide with the previous low on 29th Jan 2010. So it seems that support really can turn into resistance.

There is also another resistance at 1.04. So it might seem that Genting needs to pull back and take a breather before going higher.

I still think that the present "bull" is a B wave and that a C will come. If the double bottom holds on to its objective. Genting might retrace all the way to its 61.8% retracement line at 1.14. But then I have seen such set ups failed before in b wave.

The Experiment with Fibonacci Arc

Okay, now my index data base is having one day delay. This I mean the Asia Pacific ones, which was not the case in the past. But anyway, I am not using the chart to predict tomorrow but a longer term movement.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Today, I am using the Fibonacci Arc to check on STI. The arc formation is base only on the length of the 5th wave (or C wave).Using the arc, it can be seen that STI is reaching its resistance. Mixing this with Gann Grid, STI is also reaching the apex of the grid which indicates a turning point. Bare in mind that the chart only shows until the movement for yesterday. Today is the day inline with the Gann Grid apex.

Using Elliott's wave count for the latest trend, we should be in the 4th of the third wave down. So a fifth wave downward should be expected. This will coincide with the resistance base on both Fibonacci and Gann Grid. Projecting forward, we should see STI moving towards the outer arc following the Gann Grid line, the target should be somewhere at 2,800.

The indicators are at the bottom and inching up, this seems to contradict with the bearish projection as described above. The thing is that no divergence is shown on the indicators and thus the next bear move would produce such effect.

As for alternate count, may be it is my limitation or that I already have a certain pre-supposition in mine, I can't see any at the moment, but it does not mean there is none.

Reflection on Genting trade

Before I start writing anything tonight, I feel it is very important that I reflect on my decision on Genting trade, this is mainly because I made a decision to drop Genting yesterday, a day before it broke out of its neckline and moved up.

Even though I have made no loss on the trade I need to make sure that my trading strategy is being scrutinized.

The decision to enter the trade was a good one base on a flag break out with monthly and weekly indicators at bottom. The support level of 0.91 was used as reference to stop loss which was placed at 0.90, this level was not activated throughout the trade.

The point of entry was 0.935, which was much lower than the original expected point of entry 0.960. It was base on the fact that Genting was supported at 0.920 and rebounce up with diminishing volume in seller.

The problem came when Genting is reaching its resistance which has shown increase in seller volume, double to that of the buyer. When Genting retraced back from 0.97 to 0.96, my judgement was that Genting might be fulfilling the second possibility of a rectangle, with bearish objective.

The part which I see myself making the wrong decision was that I was not willing to lose any money on this trade, this led to me making a rash decision to run when any sign of disturbance. In addition, I already have in mind a mindset of bearish market and that I am trading on counter trend. Further to that, I was insecure due to my database not up-dated and that I was not able to study Genting's move the day prior.

So did I do a good trade? No, I failed in the part of committing to my stop loss strategy which was placed at 0.90. I have exited the trade prematurely, which result in my failure to improve my gain over the trade.

So should I be entering this counter again. Base on my own understanding, I am not to chase after the counter. I have to let go of this counter for a while. As I can see it, with the breaking of 0.975, it is confirmed a double bottom with objective of 1.12. But I would be too emotional to have good judgement should I enter now, especially when it managed to reach 1.02, the higher it goes the further away from its base line and the higher the risk.

Just got my up-dates, partially

Well, I just got my data up-date, but only partially. I wanted to look at the Forex especially on Euro. I understand there was turbulance in that counter. Too bad it was not up-dated, damn it!


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

Anyway, STI is shredding off its gain today. By day end, it has dropped about 22 points. From the chart, I first noticed the indicators are basically at the bottom and therefore STI should be moving up. However, I suspect it is into a B wave after the completion of A, so the up-side might be limited. It is presently resisted by both the 21 and 89 days moving averages at 2,916 and 2,865 respectively.

My suspicion is that it will touch the resistance of 2,947 for this index. Since it has crossed the long term trendline, I assume a high possibility fo bear.


Fig 2 Genting Daily Chart

Okay, because I am telling myself that I am only writing one entry today, I join the 2. I was actually into Genting recently (end last week). I saw a flag formation broke out and it was about half way there, I believe that time was closed with 0.96. I went in the next day right after DOW plunged 900 points. Genting fell to a low of 0.92. I hessitated and only bought the counter at 0.935, 2 bids up. It went up to 0.945 by Monday. My original calculation estimate it to reach 1.11 if it breaks 0.975. This will make a aouble bottom for Genting.

However, as I continue to observe Genting today, something is not right. It opened higher but met high resistance at 0.97-0.975, retreated down to 0.95 and came back to 0.960. In candlestick, I will call it a star. I am also having a feeling that it is not making a double bottom but a rectangle, resulting in a continuation instead of reversal.
If this is indeed a rectangle, its objective would be 0.69. Presently the Stochastic is reversing, same with RSI. In addition, RSI is having a divergence giving quite strong hint of Genting turning south again. I left the counter at 0.96, so will I be right about Genting, only time will tell.

Bloody service provider!

I have no data up-date today! Really don't know what my service provider is doing! @$%#$%$^%^&#%^*#*#*^&(*&($^%$#@!#$%^&*()&^%$#@

DJIA became the talk of the town with the 900 points free fall

I was just talking about a bad head and shoulder in my last entry on Dow Jones suggesting that it is bearish. I was expecting Dow to go south, but at a gradual pace. So did someone read my entry and got spook to short DJIA components all the way down?

Well, I am kidding and knowing the readership of my blog ( less than 15 with 10% of the count belong to me referring back to my own entries ), I doubt I am that influential. People just read as a reference and I believe they will not act simply because I say which counter is up or down. A good trader or invester will always do his own homework and decide base on his own findings.


Fig 1 DJIA Daily Chart


Fig 2 DJIA Daily Chart inclusive of uptrend trendline

It is still worth while discussing a little about Dow's move on Thursday because this is rather unique. There is no prior warning to the spectacular move at all, it simple fell started at 2:40PM US timing for 1/2 an hour. At the end of the day it covered back about 600 points with around -300 for its daily move. The next day it continued its fall for about 140 points.

While the financial sectors in USA are trying to find a reason for such plunge and checking up to see if it is machine or human error that causes such event. I would still consider the fall as part and parcel of the stcok market, of course from charting aspect.

It is not the first time US experience such plunge without warning, it also happened in the late 80s when Dow fell for a 1,000 points, it was worse then because Dow was only about 2,000 points ( story was told by my teacher ). The effect on the world market then was also more drastic than now, the Singapore market panick and people just threw they stock away, there was no time for anyone to even execute stop loss.

If the move then was acceptable, why the difference now?

If you look at the chart, you will notice a few things:
1) The candle stick was on the negative gradient of the Gann grid Line;
2) The fall stopped at the positive gradient of the Gann grid line;
3) The fall stopped by the support level of 9,895, which coincide with the previous low;
4) The day end was supported at 10,495;
5) Friday shows a continuation of the down trend base on the negative gradient of GannGrid line;
6) The plunge has broken the long term up-trend support (Fig 2);

To me, Dow has not given any abnormality at all. Its crossing the trendline further warn that it is reversing. IF there is one abnormality, it would be that the 5th wave's length does not equal that of 1st which was recorded in my last entry. But then we are dealing with probability and not absolute.

My prediction is that Dow is in process of top formation and is now in progress of its right shoulder. It took 3 months for left shoulder to complete and I figure it will take the same for the right, mirror pattern. If the top formation comes true, then the objective will lead Dow Jones to a minimum of 8,504, it could go lower.

The Euro Dollar up-date

I have left EUD for some time. My last entry on this counter was before its further deterioration. There was a warning from the the 3 black crows to stop me from buying the Euro. Greece event has definitely taken its toll on Euro, it is however quite a wonder that the chart gives advance warning about the incident. So the charts do tell fortune afterall. But just like any other forms of fortune telling, it relies on probability.


Fig 1 EUD Monthly Chart

This time round, I am using a top down approach to look at EUD. I first make use of Elliott's wave strategy to determine its position. It is a little unfortunate that I have 2 sets of count, limited by the complexity of the B wave.

The first set of count considered an ABC wave have been completed followed by an X wave. The present downward movement is actually a new A wave. The reason for this is that the C of the first set of three wave is of equal length as compared to the A of the set. B itself already contains 2 sub-sets of three waves.

The seconde set of count assume that the C and X wave is only part of a huge B wave, making the present wave a C. If I base on this assumption, the C is a little too long compared to A. Nevertheless, the C wave is of 5-wave formation. If this does not fit the profile that well, why an alternate count? The reason is a double top formation which provides an objective of 162.618. This count will allow EUD the possibility of fulfilling the objective with a B wave to retrace back to the neckline at 192.074 before plunging to its final destination.

But no matter what, the next wave is an up trend, the only difference is the up of the set wave count is longer. The question is: when the reversal?

Adding on with the Fibonacci retracement using the Bull 5 waves as reference, EUD is already close to its 61.8% retracement line (175.346). This allows me to assume that it has some way to go before it reverses.


Fig 2 EUD Weekly Chart

Already the indicators RSI and Stochastic are at the bottom of the chart for Monthly, Weekly and Daily Chart ( not shown), so EUD is itching to move up. The only problem is that the candlestick on the weekly chart shows an opening Marubozu candlestick which is bearish in tendency. This will however coincide with the assumption that it is close but not yet reaching the bottom.

If EUD should be climbing up, the resistance levels are at around 184 to 186. Support would be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 175.346.

The thing with MYR

The Malaysian Ringgit was in my radar recently after it shot up touching its trendline resistance. It however did not break the trendline, and it congested. But its recent development interests me. I ponder upon this question on what's the reason for its climb? Politically Malaysia is in a mess, the 1Malaysia is a total flop and the people is more divided than ever.

So what attracts people, especially Singaporeans to invest in Malaysia? Since there are people dumping SGD for MR.


Fig 1 MR Weekly Chart
The MR has been trading in a tight zone every week, however, week on week it is coming down, so it may seem. If I am reading this right, MR is making a penant and this is in fact a bullish sign! The sign will need 5-7 weeks ( since we are using a weekly chart ) to complete, it is almost done by now.

The measurement for a penant proppels MR to SGD44.43 per MYR100.

What's more, the 21-week moving average has done a golden cross with 89-week moving average which gives more positive signs to MR against SGD.

The only weakness is that both indicators has turned from the top and are coming down. But this is also a standard signature for a penant or flag pattern.

Presently, the penant stopped at 42.776, coincidentally, this is the exact location (well, not really exact, its 42,770) of the previous high in April 2009. Meaning that the point is supported. MR is likely to reverse next week.

An additional point on this chart. If I consider 42,770 to be the neckline to a double bottom, its minimum objective would push MR to 44,916! The penant that I have seen would then be the pull back to its neckline before further climb.

Okay, amidst such euphoria on MR,I also need to look at alternate reading. Prior to the down turn, MR was also in a rectangle formation between Mar 2005 till May 2008. The objective of this pattern is 39,835, which MR has not yet fulfill. But the recent moves has already cause MR to break its envelop from below, rendering the rectangle a failure. The possibility for its fulfillment is much lesser. Unless of course the neckline is broken, signifying a down trend continuation.

USD rises

It is certainly rare to see USD rising with such momentum nowadays. Until recent weeks USD has been forecasted by many to continue on its bear move. Even for me, I would still consider USD to be in the bear.

In my earlier entry, I mentioned of a head and shoulder formation which would result in a further drop of USD to SGD1.3569. But that would also requires a retracement to the neckline before moving further south.

The USD was doing this the last 3 days, but I was really surprise by its momentum. In fact using the daily chart, the 3 days move resemble a 3 white soldiers candlestick. This is a very bullish pattern, the last I saw this was in Tiong Woon, which eventually led to a position much higher than my expectation. So is USD deserting its head and shoulder pattern?


Fig 1 USD Weekly chart
I suspect so, for one thing, it has already penetrated the neckline from below. This is not common for a head and shoulder formation.More over, it pushing through the previous lows in the area.

If USD is moving up, the next resistance it is going to meet is around SGD1.4158 to SGD1.4240. This is the approximate location for the previous high. I suspect it might pull back from there before gaining further ground. This is mainly because the daily indicators are at the peak although both weekly and monthly are below 50% range. Anyway, it is also getting very close to the negative gradient of the Gann Grid line, so there is a good chance of this retracement.

Wing Tai in decision zone

I have not been writing on Wing Tai's development for a while. The last time I wrote about it was when it has moved up. after looking at it again today, I have decided to write something on this counter.


Fig 1 Wing Tai Daily Chart
I see 2 possible patterns in formation for Wing Tai. The first is a potential head and shoulder if confirmed will lead to objective of 1.18. The other one is a symmetrical triangle, which have the same measurement since the first point of envelop formation coincide with the "head" of the head and shoulder.

My hunch is that Wing Tai will not go down just yet. For one thing, the triangle is not complete. the is still an "e" wave to go, I suspect it will hit 1.88 before retreating and thus breaking the lower envelop.

There is an alternate possibility, if Wing Tai breaks the upper envelop, this is likely to mean Wing Tai going to climb higher. That will lead to an objective of 2.38.

At present moment, the RSI is at the bottom, so it will still support the up move of Wing Tai

When to confirm STI bear?

I have been thinking for a while what title to put for STI today. At first I wanted to discuss abour wave count. However, I hessitated because there is not enough information to decided at which point STI is.

If you look at the wave, one possibility is that it has completed a 1st wave down followed by an abc up (2nd wave), then a 1st and 2nd of 3rd and now is in process of 3. If this is the count, the pull back might only retrack the third wave by 38.2% base on Fib numbers. The target up would be around 2,880, and it has not completed the third of third of A wave.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart
Looking at the chart, first thing that comes to my mind is the 89 days moving average which is now resistance at 2,866. I mentioned in my last entry that STI has to visit this movign average before retracing, I was actually in a little bit of surprise when I saw STI just skipped all the way there the next day. It seems to be congesting at this moving average for the time being.

Both the RSI and Stochastic has indicated that STI is in the over sold region, reaction from Stochastic is stronger this time round, it is reversing. I told the lady at the coffe shop this evening that STI should be reversing again tomorrow, it seems like my words might come true.

So the next question is: Has STI reversed?

Answer to this is not as straight forward. Base on wave count, I would personally think that it has reversed with a major counter wave. Further more, it has broken the trendline support (in orange). The uncertainty is that no confirmed pattern or symptom of reversal measurement. There is a possibility that STI is in correction mode, this provided that my wavecount is wrong.

So when will there be a confirmation of trend reversal? When STI crosses 2,667 to create a non-failure swing. It is also possible that STI is in process of top formation, looking at the shape, it could be doing a head and shoulder. With this scenario, STI will hover at 2,667 before rebounding up for a right shoulder.

Head and Shoulder on DJIA

I am not going to show the DJIA weekly chart again (Just used it last week), instead I will use the Daily Chart.


Fig 1 DJIA Daily Chart
Base on the daiy chart, I can see a weak formation of a head and shoulder with objective of 10,653. DJIA has just broken the neck line yesterday and as long as it stays below 10,958, the formation should be prudent.Support is seen at 10,827.

STI broken its long term trendline support!

I have gone through 2 days of MC, plus the dis-ease started Sunday, so it is a total of 3 days. I am still unwell at the moment and I am concern if my health is actually failing.

Although my fever have subsided, I got a feeling that my sickness has not come to an end. If you have been through fever before, you might recall that it always end with a heavy load of cold sweat. This did not happened and I am still feeling that something is twitching to burst out of me (like the monster in Alien, Aliens, Alien 3, Alien resurection...).


Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart
In my last entry on STI, I noted th danger of it breaking the long term trendline support. Well, it did on the weekly chart, at the same time it is still unconfirmed because the week has not completed yet, there ar estill 3 days to go and you won't know if STI crawl its way back on top of the line by the end of the day.

Both the indicators are seen at top reversing down, so probably we shall see at least a few weeks of down trend.


Fig 2 STI Daily chart
Seeing the spectacular move today, I can only say "wow"! after dropping around29 points yesterday, it went down by another 59 points, which only daily basis is quite far to be saved by now. It is presently resisted by its 21 days moving average @ 2,955 and supported by 89 days moving average of 2,867.

STI did a retracement to below its previous high which now turns resistance @2,947. the good thing is that the indicators are at the bottom on daily basis, so there might be some pull back from its down thrust. but probably it needs to meet its 89 days moving average first.

Ezra

I am a little bit under the weather for the last few days. I had a sore throat on Saturday evening after my dinner and I still have no idea what caused it. Then the dis-ease really caught up with me by sunday morning, it was like the whole body was cracking. By evening time, my temperature was at a height of 40DegC.

The doctor gave me 2 days MC so I am now staying home resting. To be honest, my head is still spinning as I type.

Since I have very little to do other than rest,I checked up on the charts.

I came across this counter Ezra on my mid-cap layout. It seems to be a counter which was frequently discussed recently. I have no idea what it does and how people are attracted to this counter. Anyway, I took a look.


Fig 1 Ezra Weekly Chart

The chart is interesting, the counter gapped down from a height of SGD7.00 completing a 3 wave pattern by Oct 2009 with a low of SGD0.325. It has lost 95% of its value.

It then went back up to SGD2.50. hovering between 23.6% and 38.2% of its Fibonacci retracement. From the wave count, I would say that it is in the 4th wave, which could be a rectangle or a double top reversal. Well, since I am writing it today and that I have seen its 1/2 day performance at 2.04. I gather that the Double top seems more appropriete at the moment.

Both RSI and Stochastic are 1/2 way down so there is some more distance to go. Since I am looking at double top, its objective is around SGD1.47.

Weekly deliberation on Cosco

Cosco has risen quite a bit recently, and speculation has resulted from CNA forum on revision of its objective to 2.00 then 2.30.So does Cosco worth that much? If you see me writing it this way, you might be expecting something different by now.


Fig 1 Cosco Weekly Chart
I am looking at Cosco using the higher time frame of weekly chart to see the longer term trend. Sadly the first thing I saw was an advance block pattern with a confirmation.

At the same time, if I consider its double bottom break up measurement, it has already reached its peak, I do not see any other pattern supporting further height.

Further to that, both RSI and Stochastic has peaked and is reversing. Whats more, it is crossing the negative gradient of the Gann Grid.

With such vase number of resistance, I am afraid Cosco has seen its peak for now and is reversing.

Of course there is one more scenario, Cosco might be congesting making a flag for its next move. Still it will have to pull back for a while. Bare in might taht we are still referring to a weekly chart, so things might not move that rapidly as I have mentioned.

Reversal indication on Dow Weekly Chart

I normally wait until Saturday before I read the chart of DJIA. Mainly because the data base on Friday night is not complete since Dow is on the other side of the world.


Fig 1 DJIA Weekly Chart
If I have not waited for the complete Dow data, I would not be seeing the weekly performance which seen this week's movement totally cancelled out last week's progress. A better picture still, Dow has done a 2 days, or in this case 2 weeks reversal. What I lack to confirm this is the volume that goes with the pattern. Under normal circumstances, we should see extremely high volume for these 2 weeks compared to bars prior.

Both Stochastic and RSI are also noted to be reversing with Stochastic having a divergence. Base on historical records, I would trust RSI a little more than Stochastic. Without a divergence we might not be seeing the end of Dow yet.


Fig 2 DJIA Daily Chart
On daily basis, Dow has wiped out its Thursday's move. At the same time, its new height has not surpassed its previous height. Further more, the previous high is stopped at 11,258, the point where 61.8% retracement of Dow.

If Dow continues to progress downward, we would be seeing a completion of a small head and shoulders, 20,964 would be a crucial point. Crossing this point would mean it is going to achieve the head and shoulders objective of 10,668. The support of Dw weekly reversal seems to suggest such possibility.

Dow's support line lies at 10,827 while its 21 weeks support @10276, resistance wise is the 61.8% retracement line of 11,255.

The dilema of buying Euro

In my last entry on EUD, I mentioned my hessitation due to three black crows. Seems like I was right in my reading the last round. Since then I have been checking up on EUD to see if there is a possibility of reversal.


Fig 1 EUD Weekly Chart

As I am reading this chart, I am becoming more skeptical. If base on the swing move, EUD is almost at its destination (178.424). Yes, the indicators are right a the bottom and looking like they are processing a divergence. So this would mean a reversal up, wouldn't it?

The problem is here. Between 2003 till Sept 2008 formed a huge double top. It has broken the neck line before but for some reason, it reversed back up. This time round, it penetrated (sound dirty) the neckline again and went even further south. The objective of this HUGE double top is 162.356.

So should EUD reversel up again, it is likely to be resisted at theneckline of 191.871.

So what to do? Plan a tour to Europe next year, starting with Greece.