Hang Seng on continuation...again....

 Well, I am back in Malaysia again this week to visit my mother. Coincidentally, my cousins from UK happens to be in town as well. It has been a long time, and it is great to see thme again.

One of my cousins even brought along his children, who are 14 and 16 years old. His son into Rugby while daughter interested in music. I still remember the first time I met them, one was only 3 and the other was one. I was 14 at the time, imagine a 14 year-old went into an argument with a 3 year-old.

My last visit to UK was 2001 and that was the last time I saw my cousins. It has been a long time since and it is great to see them again.

Meanwhile, let's talk about Hang Seng.

Fig 1. Hang Seng weekly chart

My last update on Hang Seng was about 3 weeks ago in Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng Update 6th Aug 2023. I was really uncertain about its direction then as it was sending mix signal with a strong upward bar but stopped by 55-week moving average. 

While setting up measurement on the up-side, my feel at the time was further down slide. It is all because of the 55-week moving average resistance, which I have said is a strong energy line. As can be seen from this chart, Hang Seng tested the moving average numerous times and retreated, even though it is within the congestion band.

It seems that my suspicion was right, Hang Seng went on a retreat. At the same time, it is still moving within its channel and in a congestive behavior. 

I suspect it will rebound upward after reaching the lower envelop. It is presently suppport by its retacement of 17,687 and close to reaching its projection support of 17,497. Breaking this level, the next support will be 78.6% retracement at 16,319 and 100% projection of 15,730.

Oil creeping up?

My car was coming low on fuel this morning led to a trip to the gas station.

Imagine my surprise to see that petroleum breached the SGD2.80 mark It has stayed below this level for quite a while.

I was aware some instability in USD against other components and it mildly weakened during the last few weeks, while crude oil was in congestion phase. Has something happened the last week or so?

Fig 1. SGD weekly chart

USD was actually strengthening against SGD the ast few weeks, bouncing back from its bottom of SGD1.31744. While alarming, it movement is still within the boundary of its congestion. 

At the same time, it is touching the 55-week moving average. There is a possibility that it may reverse down in the coming week, either a congestion or into correction.

At this point of time, I am not seeing much indication going higher. On a contrary, the indication is still on a down slide, with USD further weaken against SGD. The larger projection measurement indiactes a 61.8% projection support of 1.2670.

However, if the counter breaks the resistance of 1.357, next point of resistance is 1.370 to 1.384.

Fig 2. Crude oil weekly chart

Coincidentally, Crude oil also rised from its bottom 63.64 and surpassed its 55-week moving average 79.13, and it managed to stay above this resistance turned support.

It is presently stopped by the envelop of the rectangle at 83.53 this week. Should it retest this level and manage to break upward, the next level of resistance is between 92.34 to 94.746.

Should it failed to break through, it may fall back to 63.64.

At this point, I really need to cross my fingers hoping that the 55-week moving average manage to hold back the advance of oil and SGD.

Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng Update 6th Aug 2023

I have skipped last week's update. No, I was not lazy, I was depressed after a week's of losing trades. 

My trading was fine even after my return from Malaysia. Then I suddenly have a sense of anxiety while driving home after my morning routines (send my wife to work, my children to school), things been too great, and it is possible that disaster was around the corner. 

For a week since then, something just went wrong with my trades. The worse was that the moment I made a loss on my trade I somehow was compelled to look into 'the next opportunity' to re-enter the market, leading to more bad trades. 

It reached an extent that I have to stop trading and move away from my desk. I have to sit back and conduct a self -reflection of what went wrong. I remembered a time many years ago when I first decided to take up trading. 

My mum was concerned about my financial status, I happened to complete a good trade then (around USD1,000 profit in an hours of work) to gain her confidence, she praised that she misjudged me and that I was indeed capable.

It was after that incident that suddenly my trades just started failing, and it went on for months and I lost most of my capital. I ended up switching to demo trade to figure out the issue with my trades. It still took another year or so to notice that I was compelled to trade, I must be in the market to re-assure people to live up to my reputation.

Did something happen before my relapse this round. I was in Malaysia the week before. My brother voiced his concern if I am really doing fine with my trading. I was doing fine at the time, I smiled and re-assure him I was doing fine.

I suspect that this was actually the catalyst, and the trigger point was the first losing trade of the week. It seems like I have a need to live up to other people's expectations. This is something that I need to overcome.

Anyway, enough of that. This week round, I am going to do an up-date on Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng. 

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

I can't believe that my last up-date on Dow Jones was in Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng up-date 23rd April 2023 in april 2023. while I was not that positive on Dow then, I estimated a resistance between 35,308 to 37,774.  

Dow Jones reached new high last week at 35,687 before retreating back to a low of 35,029 this week, closing at 35,076.

35,308 happen to be the 61.8% more major projection resistance level.

Is it a reversal? 

I suspect not, the bars are overlapping after a long bar up, indicating a possibility of congestion. There are likely more upside.

There are also signs of weaknesses. First off, the gradient of its uptrend is gentle at around 30o, similar to the previous downtrend, I suspect it is a counter wave of counter wave (wave B). 

Why still more up-side?

While reaching new high, its MACD has still yet to break the previous peak, potentially forming a divergence. The bar of the coming week will be quite significant, it will give indication of the trend for Dow Jones.

Fig 2. Nikkei weekly chart

My last up-date on Nikkei was more recent in Nikkei & JPY divergence dated 25th June 2023. 

I was more positive of Nikkei, at the same time ponder its divergence with JPY.

Nikkei retreated from its 61.8% projection resistance earlier. It retested this resistance this week and made further retreat after that.

While congesting, it seems to me that Nikkei is in process of completing a 3-wave pattern, with objective between 30,652 to 31,271.

If broken, then the next level will be 29,363, its 55-week moving average.

Fig 3. Hang Seng weekly chart

My last up-date for Hang Seng was in Hang Seng continuation on 28th May 2023. To be honest, Hang Seng is the counter I am trading most. It has very strong fluctuations and it is possible to make huge losses. 

At the same time, it is also a very good counter for making fast money. I use 3-minute chart and only for around 30 minutes for Hang Seng.

Primarily, I trades Hang Seng because I do not want to lose my sleep trading Dow Jones which means I have to trade at night. I do not want such excitement before I sleep.

Hang Seng is active and with magnitude as compared to Nikkei. 

All the time I was bearish for Hang Seng, noting the formation of reversal pattern. 

I claimed in my last entry that it was on continuation downward. I am puzzled by its behavior lately. It does not seem to indicate that it is on continuation, but within a congestion channel, and lately it is testing the upper envelop, before retreating, mainly due to its 55-week moving average, which is also very close to its short term 100% projection resistance range. 

Is it going up or down? I am uncertain, Hang Seng to me is at a crossroad, especially when it is congesting. I am still leaning more towards the downside, but with possible short up-side before heading downward.