Cost of living is going to creep up again.....

It is a short week this week because of Good Friday. Even so, Not all the market would be closed. Japan for instance, won't close for Good Friday, would it? I would at least go for Nikkei trade in the morning, or so I thought.

I woke up at 5:45AM, did my morning routine and by 7:15AM, I was at my work desk, have my laptop and PC turned on and I was ready.

As it turned out, Nikkei IS CLOSED on Good Friday! Anyway, no plan for Good Friday, we ended going for lunch then grocery shopping before heading home, ending the day with dinner at my mother-in-law's home. Quite an unhappening day.

On a sidetrack, I checked on the internet over news on JB crossing. Without surprised, both entry to JB from Singapore were jammed, and it is difficult to say which one was worse. I could only gauge from the queue over the second link which was close to reaching the exit from Singapore custom that it would be at least 5 hours wait before reaching the Malaysia CIQ. 

I really wonder, "why many Singaporeans are so hard up on heading to Malaysia on every opportunity?"

Definitely, Currency exchange has something to do with the urge, Afterall, Kiasuism is an identity of Singaporeans. With inflation creeping up and cost of living over the roof in Singapore (led by government initiatives), heading to a country with your money is multiplied 3.5 times or more is definitely a great draw, even when you may need to wait 5 hours for it, one way. 

Otherwise, is there possibility that Singapore economy is not doing well to the extent that Singaporeans shorten their distances for oversea trips, road trip instead of flying to a faraway place. Certainly, the crossings were not that jam pack 10 years ago and a trip to Malaysia was not high on Singaporeans agenda.

It all come down to affordability, and speaking of affordability, I think driving may be less affordable in the near future, why? Crude oil and USD are creeping up.

It was not long ago that I did my updates on SGD (Now that SGD reached its 55-week moving average, what is next?) dated 2nd March 2024 and Crude Oil (It is Crude Oil's turn after SGD) a week later on 10th March 2024.

I estimated that SGD might reverse at 55-week moving average while Crude Oil has limit in it climb.

Fig 1. SGD weekly chart

While SGD went down as expected the week after my last update, it reversed before reaching my predicted target. It broke through the 55-week moving average and stayed above the level by the end of this week.

This led to new development in SGD with an upward possibility. Using Projection, I can see that SGD is now reaching its 61.8% projection resistance. Furthermore, there seems to be momentum to head higher. 

I may see mild congestion at this point before it goes higher to 1.36376. This level also coincides with its 78.1% retracement level.

Nevertheless, its higher degree moving averages for the moment still maintain tendency of downtrend. 

What of crude oil?

Fig 2. Crude Oil weekly chart

Crude oil is still attempting to climb upward, at the same time, it is facing resistance by its Bollinger band at 82.81, and at this point of time, Bollinger envelop is not relenting its position. The envelop also close to its 61.8% retracement @ 84.13.

It is also interesting noting that the volume of trade is reducing as it climbs higher. This is sign of divergence in crude oil.

For the moment, the reading from the previous entry still stand.

My family Clear bright festival, and is Dow Jones' ascension without end?

I have skipped my up-date last week, again. 

I went back to Malaysia for an event, the clear bright festival. It is a Chinese tradition which the livings visit and attend to the grave of the past. It is a way we remember that our existence is the result of the effort of our ancestors. Without them, we will not be here today. We should be grateful for what their work.

Nope, it is not exactly time for clear bright festival, it is not yet due till early April. It is the anniversary of my father's passing and we have decided to conduct the ceremony early. Furthermore, it is not required that we must conduct the ceremony on the very day. Traditionally, there is an allowance of plus and minus 2 weeks to carry through this process.

I still remember that my cousins and I all look forward for this event, why?

It is not about prayer for our ancestors, neither was it for cleaning the graves. That was the role of the adult. Our role was to eat the offerings after each prayer. The amount of food is abundance, including soft buns, duck eggs, apples, oranges, roast pork and pastries. 

It was picnic for us, not only we feast, we also took the opportunity to connect with each other utilizing this rare opportunity when all the cousins gather at the same spot.

Under normal circumstances, an average family will only have the graves of the grandparents and /or deceased parents. My family is more complicated. My grandmother passed away even before my birth. Her grave was very simple with just a tomb stone and a heap of soil topped with grass patch.

My grandfather passed away when I was 4, but he is not buried together with my grandmother, because he remarried. So we have at least 2 graves that we need to attend to.

My second grandmother past away in 1999. As a place was allocated for her when my family picked the grave for my grandfather.

My family is unique, because there is yet another grave that we have to attend to. For years, the younger generation has no idea whose grave was it. It was much later that we get to know that this is the grave of my second grandmother's first husband. He passed away without heir, as a result the off springs of my family took up the task of tending to his grave as well. 

As we took over the role from our parents, it was then that we realized how taxing it is to take care of the graves, including cutting the grass, loosening the soil, burn the incense for our ancestors' grave, as well as other graves nearby to say "hello".

We started our process by 6 in the morning preparing the food, drive our way to the temple of the first cemetery, visit the first grave, drive to the second cemetery and attend to the second and third grave. 

By the time we finish, it is 11 in the morning. By then, the sun is close to midday, and it is very warm and humid, we will be drench in our own sweat. In addition, we lack sufficient drinking water, leading to an absolute dehydration. It is really not an enjoyable experience when we are adult.

Enough of my clear bright festival. 

I have not been on Dow Jones for quite a while. Part of the reason was my prediction made during the new year in my entry Year End Review of Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng. I estimated Dow Jones should see resistance between 37,481 and 39,127 on minor move while 40,295 to 47,454 in major move. 

Dow crossed 39,000 3 weeks ago and is close to reaching the 40,000 mark that I estimated last week before retreating this week. It caused a minor stir on youtube.com. By minor I means a little news, mainly about it breaking new height.

What will happen next?

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

While Dow Jones has reached new height, it seems to lack momentum heading upward. Nevertheless, it managed to stay afloat above 8-week moving average. At the same time, there are a few level resistances. Most obviously, its descending Bollinger envelop at 40,746. 

In addition, it is meeting 2 projection resistances. While it stayed above 39,123 but resisted by 39,500. 

There is another projection resistance above these 2, which is its major projection resistance line at 40,354. I suspect it will retreat when reach this level. However, I cannot determine if it will be a reversal or correct at this point. I will assume the higher possibility of correction based on my experience on 61.8% projection line. it may retreat to its 55-week moving average before heading higher.

At this point of time, there is not yet divergence observed from MACD. Even when divergence is observed, there should still be one more leg up before reversal.

Other than this, I am not seeing other indication on the weekly chart. Is there other hint from Dow Jones chart?  

Let's look at the daily chart.

Fig 2. Dow Jones daily chart

It is also noticeable from this chart that there is a reduction in its momentum. However, there is a surge in momentum this week to push it to new height, with exception on Friday, which sees an over 400 points drop.

Is there anything that need to be worried about? 

Let's take a look at its candle sticks. The 3 days consecutive surge created the three white soldiers this crossing the Bollinger envelop. This followed by a retreat back within the Bollinger band.

While it is a little stretched out, I estimate that this is a potential up-side Tasuki gap, indicating possibility of continuation thereafter. 

There chance of uptrend is high even on the daily chart as a result.

I have drawn a projection on the chart postmortem. The reason for this week's reversal is due to its 61.8% projection resistance. With my belief that 61.8% projection normally result in correction.

Regardless correction or continuation after this week, the next resistance zone will be between 40,623 to 41,210.

It is Crude Oil's turn after SGD

I normally conduct a read on Crude Oil when I work on SGD. I did not last week, why?

I was lazy and I wanted to rest on a weekend. Furthermore, crude oil did not seem to be going anywhere. At least not yet. I was thinking to myself, " Let's take it easy."

While USD truly weakens against SGD this week, I am still pumping gas for my car at the same price. It only means that the oil price has not been down, or down but not that much.

Let's do a read on crude oil this week then.

Fig 1. Crude Oil weekly chart

In my last update on this counter, I estimated that it will tend to move up with resistance from its 55-week moving average.

It is there right now. The interesting part is that its gradient while moving upward is very gradual, indicating a weaker momentum as compared to its down trend. 

Is it going down already? 

It has not shown me indication of reversal, I believe that it is not ready. There may still be some distance to go before it decides to head downward. 

Where do I see the resistance? We should see resistance zone between 87.11 to 99.10. I consider its 87.11 to be more crucial as it also coincides with the Bollinger envelop (86.05) presently. 

At the same time, support level is also attained through its major move with support zone between 28.17 to 53.71.

However, this is subjective considering a potential reversal at the Bollinger envelop, which will provide a new support zone if it turns true.

Now that SGD reached its 55-week moving average, what is next?

I did an entry titled My cost of petrol went up, but not because of oil..... dated 6th Jan 2024. I estimated at the time that SGD likely to move towards 55-week moving average before continuation downward.

Well, it touched the 55-week moving average 2 weeks ago.

While I want to give an update on SGD then, I hesitated. 

A shooting star was formed but the body was green. I needed more of its movement before I can be clear of its direction. 

I thought of doing it last weekend. Unfortunately, it coincided with universities' open house. My daughter has just completed her polytechnic course and we have to consider the options available for our next step. This used up my 2 days of the weekend.

Nevertheless, it is still not late to include the update today.

Fig 1. SGD weekly chart

Using the set up between 29th Jan 2023 to 9th Jul 2023, I noted that SGD reached its counterwave objective by 1st Oct 2023, justifying its reversal.

It also allows the prediction of a new direction downward (stronger SGD with weaker USD) with support at between 1.23086 to 1.2865. 

SGD is presently clamp between its 8 and 55-week moving averages after its retreat from its 55-week moving average. 

Assuming the possibility that it indeed reverses at this point, breaking the 8-week moving average will allow USD to slip downward with support level between 1.29113 to 1.3147. Level 1.3147 will be crucial as it also meeting the Bollinger band (presently at 1.3133). It may correct at this point.