Hyflux anyone?

After a long rest, I have decided a separate strategy. My last strategy caused me to get into too much details and focus on everyday changes. This time round, I find it is much better to look from higher time frame, and everything would seems to slow down. I think this would be better for my character.

So there I was glancing through stocks after stocks for my leisure, and I came across Hyflux. I am sure it is quite a prominant figure in the market, even my wife know the lady CEO's name, must be something and company should not be that bad neither.



Fig 1. Hyflux weekly chart

I was in for a shock when I have a first look at the stock. What's in front of me is a double top which has broken through the neck line, went down and rebounded back to the neck area. Base on the theory of Double Top (DT) it is quite high time for it to proceed south. Measurement of DT yield SGD0.215, down from the present point of 2.08. So is it shrinking to 1/10 of its present size? It is a possibility since it is now half its original full size.

The interesting part are the Stochastic and RSI indicators, they are trending higher highs and peaking for the present moment, for Daily, Weekly and monthly chart. Both indicators are turning back south, I guess this would mean the price would follow suit.

An interesting point to note is the rebounding back to the trend line, it penetrated and broke up-wards. I have been kaypoing with some Forex stuffs (since my data supplier bundled it in for me). I found that many currencies when compared with SGD rebounded from a low and broke through the neck lines of their top formation. May be there are still hope that the top formation would break down(Opp! not supposed to "hope". Bad, bad boy).

For the time being, I have my doubt and would stay far from this stock, I might still be wrong though.

Creative....

It has been about 2 years plus since I last blogged about stock market. I have been busy with my new born, the boy is now close to 3 and he is so cute! Yet, he is not speaking.....

Anyway, I recall the last time I blogged about stocks, one of the charts I put up was Creative. I was wondering if my SGD5.00 for Creative would come true. Seems like it did after a year or so. I have just restarted my charting, coming out of retirement. Re-installed my data base, got myself a Version 10.1 Metastock (real one, not pirated). So one of the first stock would again be my favourite, Creative.

I am (partially pleasantly) surprise at Creative's performance. It went further than I thought. I thought that SGD5.00 will hold, apparently not. It is as far south as SGd3 plus. So what is the exact price in Singapore context for Creative?

I have this formula that I like to use. Creative is having 50 units per lot, thus, the price per lot would be 3.79 X 50 = 189.50. In Singapore context, 1 lot is 1,000 units, therefore price per Singapore context, Creative is 189.50/1,000 = SGD0.1895 per unit, in another word a penny stock.


Fig 1. Creative

Fig 1 shows the latest Creative monthly chart. I like to use Monthly charts because it gives a general direction in the long run. Creative is really at the bottom. However, it did something interesting while moving south, a wedge was formed if you trace all the way till 2005. And during the last few months, an ascending triangle! Seems like Creative is poising to move up again! The target for the wedge is aiming at SGD9.89 while triangle is SGd5.80.

The monthly indicators are also showing signs of reversal on the monthly chart. So I am quite optimistic that Creative will see some light, well may be not its formal glory but it is going somewhere.