UniFiber.....*yawn*

It was a few years ago when I first encounter Unifiber. To be more exact, it was 2005 and I was at my Brokerage office after some bank works. If I recall correctly, the closing bell has been sounded. I was sitting at the monitor at the broker office looking at stock movements.

Right next to me was a man whom I guess was a day trader. We started chatting and he showed me this counter. He was entering the orders for the next day. After I regain my data and a new version of Metastock, I took interest in monitoring this stock myself.


Fig 1 Unifiber Weekly chart

At first glance, Unifiber is doing a flag or penant after its spectacular move. The rate at which the stock rise was so aggressive that many seems to have been trapped when it consolidate. The flag stretched and descended for a whole 5 weeks.

At the end of the 5th week, it seemed that the stock is ready to rock again with continuously rising volume each week. Yet after some initial kick start, the counter stalled.

I was monitoring the counter for the last 2 weeks. This counter is no short of buyers. At the same time, it also has a lot of sellers. Everyday you would easily see buyers matching sellers in quantity of 10s of millions units.

It is frustrating to watch as 100s of millions of stocks change hands everyday and yet neither side was depleted. It come to the extend that this stock is very boring because even with its sheer volume of transaction, it has not moved an inch still. Until the last few days, it was even driven to its support level between 0.065 to 0.070. This trend kept going on and on and on. That is until today.

Strange enough the stock was terribly quiet the whole morning and for the first time, buyers out number seller 4 to 1. Majority of trades are done with buyer crossing to sellers. This reminds me of Creative I saw a few weeks ago. Less people are willing to sell this chip!

Looking at the chart, it is at a crucial point where it is at risk of breaking down. With the correction around the corner, the market sentiments might cause this stock to move south, even though there are very little space to maneuver (there are only SGD0.07 left with this stock).

On weekly basis, the indicators still support the chip, as well as the 21 days MA. On the flip side, the 89 days MA is pressing down together with the Gann resistance. The support level for this stock is 0.065 while resistance at 0.10. The flag objective is o.13.

STI Limits

After the "shocking" plunge because of SSEC (not like the news report about profit taking) , it seems that STI is recovering and regaining the lost 43 points from yesterday. seems like the correction is not coming as many has expected. In fact many on forum was silenced after the roller coaster ride yesterday. In addtion, I read the Evening News Paper today with experts coming out to say that the Bull market is long from over.



So one might question, when exactly will the correction be coming?

Fig 1 STI Weekly chart

Fig 1 show the STI weekly chart, base on candle stick pattern, it is creating the possibility of the three white soldiers. This means a continuation, that is if tomorrow's maintain relatively stagnant. If tomorrow STI make a full correction to alevel close to 2,542, then the three white soldiers failed and would likely indicate a reversal.

While saying that, base on a swing move pattern, STI is likely to reach at least 2,731. A resistance is visible at 2,751 and the index would be meeting a resistive Gann line. There is a high chance that that would be the point where STI would correct.

On a side note, the revelation from the "experts" today worries me, because there is a high chance that experts might get it wrong. Well, not that they are wrong, the bull is still there. It is just that their appearance most likely cause the market to go the other way....earlier.

SSEC and !@@$##%#$T$%Y%^&%^&

While writing about SSEC last night, I attached the chart up-dated till 27th July 2009.Due to some issue with the hmtl stuffs, the chart was not shown. So @#@$%$#!@!#%#....... and here is the chart that was supposed to be there.



Fig 1 SSEC weekly chart supposed to show on previous article

So right after I mentioned of a correction pending, the market today was in shock with SSEC dropping a distance of 280 point. Markets all over the world panic and everyone selling in the morning. Surprisingly SSEC recovered with only 62 down from its top by the end of the day.



Fig 2 SSEC Daily

Many people are talking about the collapse of China market and some went back to the article I read on CNA last night. Some even reference back to 1920s and 1980s crash on Wall Street. Yes, these crashes will happen, but at a bottom formation?

Looking at the chart, this is far from remote resemblance of a market crash. The most I can say is a correction. I following the Gann Gridlines and Fan lines. Seems like SSEC is stopped by multiple support.

So my best bet? If my wave count is correct, This should be a minor wave and and 4th wave is 0.618 of wave 2.So the correction value is around 231, which the index has already fulfilled.

Worst case scenario would be this being the 4th wave and we should be having a drop of around 500 point from 3439 leading to 2939.

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite

I was involved in an Internet Forum today and someone posted an article about Shanghai Stock Market going to crash as claimed by an econophysicist (really have no idea what the hell it meant). The article showed a 60Deg ascenssion of the SSEC and the author predicted a bubble burst estimated between 17th to 27th July 2009.

I was curious about how accurate the author is in predicting the China market so I opened the SSEC chart to take a look.


Fig 1 SSEC Weekly

I nearly laughed off my chair when I saw the chart. To begin with SSEC has just come all the way down from its top. It is at the very bottom of the sea. Since its bottom out, it has only retraced back to 38.2% from its top.

Of course base on Fibonacci retracement, it is one of the ideal place for a correction. However, the situation is far from qualifying for a bubble. In fact the author might have been late for more than a year reporting a bubble on SSEC. He should have reported it by Oct 2007.

Looking at the chart, if my wave count is correct, the counter wave is completed. I am not too sure since the C waves that I consider is a little small. If the case is true, then SSEC is on a new wave. There is a chance that SSEC is on completing wave 3 and ready with 4th.

The strange thing about the chart is that I do not see the formation o bottom yet. While SSEC might not yet have a bubble, it is still not out of the woods yet. My guess is that there is a loooooong way to go, 2 years may be. I would think that the chart would come down with a second major wave to create a double bottom.

DJIA - Reverse Head and Shoulder?

It is Saturday evening and I am in my bed writing this. My son did not have his afternoon nap and I am to ensure that he sleeps early tonight while my wife play with my daughter. The weather is acting very strange lately, from rain to sudden warm.


Fig 1. DJIA Weekly

I am reading my chart at the moment and took a look at DJIA. Seems like this guy intend to move up. So my wave count is correct afterall?

What I am seeing now is a reverse Head and Shoulder and the index crossed the neckline. So I guess it is going for a minimum objective of 11,483 with this set up. However, looking at the set up with very small shoulders. It is minor wave which may break down. But no matter what it will go some way if not all the way. Incidentally, the minimum objective is also a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Let's get into the Fortune telling business. looking at the bar, I would predict one more bar of the same length next week. Making it a 3 white soldiers on Candle sticks. This will give confirmation of an up trend.

MYR

I recall over a month or two ago that I was talking to my father and I mentioned about the weakening of the Malaysian Ringgit. To be honest, my father has very little idea of how much I know about the financial market. To him I was trained an Engineer and he does not put too much attention to me taking about things like stock market. He has his own opinion on how such market should be played. Certainly he has absolutely no knowledge how I would derrive the numbers.

Since young I have been ollowing my father when there is no one to take care of me at home. We used to have maids but I was such a difficult child that the maids all left because of me. (Well, actually whenever the maids left, it was always ater an arguement with my mother. I was only the excuse). I used to feel guilty about the matter most of the time.

My father was trained to be very good with his memory. He can memorize phone numbers by heart, all you need is to tell him the person and phone number and 90% of the time he would remember even after 2 months. He is also great in calculation. He can talk to me about business, come up with the numbers and calculte the revenues, profit. I can never compete with him when it come to numbers.

Yet he was terrible with the stock market, most of the time he entered at the top and hold when the market comes down. My guess is that he has never a chance in meeting any teacher in this field, otherwise, I would have been a rich kid with silver spoon.


Fig 1 MYR SGD Weekly chart

As I said, I told him that MYR is going to be very weak. At the time, the formation of a rectangle was already matured and it is consolidating at the resistance. The measurement was SGD39.83! If in a longer term, the rectangle makes up a part of a swing move, the hole is going to be deeper at SGD39.04.

At the time, I did not anticipate what was going to happen. It was not until a ew days ago that I browsed through the Forex to be shocked by the gap down! I thought to myself, my god! (Note: I am not a believer of god) what's going to happen in Malaysia. If the currency is so weak, its economy is going to be VERY BAD.

In a way, it is quite true. Many countries at this moment are trying to save the economy, with exception from Malaysia. The Government is in a situation which it has no expectation of existence. Ever since the election, it has been doing much to fight off the opposition advances until a level of obsession. Little focus in fact was given to the growth of the economy.

The people at the same time continued to demand change because now they suddenly realise that they have the power to do so. One customer whom I visit commented, " if they don't change, we change them". This has never cross the mind of Malaysians in the past, because it was believe that the Government is unmovable.

Yet the effect now create a situation where everyone is focus on political combat and noone guarding the rice bowl.

So I told myself that I shouldn't be surprise at all. The chart has already forecasted what's going to happen, it is simply speeding up.

I was having some exchange my my friend today about STI and the Fibonacci retracement came up. I mentioned that I did a brief wave count and this should be a fifth wave that STI is having. I was asked if this is so, what might be the level under Fibonacci.


Fig 1 STI Daily chart

So here is my wave count, although I am a little sceptical about how accurate it is. It will have to do. Base on the theory, 5th wave is to be around 0.68 of 1st to 3rd waves. So the 5th wave should reach 2,869.65.

a

Gann on Fuyu Manuacturing

I have made a new friend recently ( almos a year ) from the internet. I find this friend interesting because she has very similar interest as I and her spread is very wide. While I am more onto the learning of the Chinese Mystics,she is onto the Hindus. We have a few exchanges of culture,ranging from energy harnessing, astrology to technical analysis. I am indeed very impressed by her knowledge. As a respect to her, her nick will not be revealed for her privacy (even on the net), I will just provide with an alias Citrine.

One thing that Citrine has taught me was the use of Gann tools. I was originally not into Gann as I was already working hard using Fibonacci and Eliot waves. the problem with the techniques is that it lacks the timing...well, Fibonacci does have a time frame prediction but the time frame expand as the chart proceed further from the origin.

It took me some time to have a mild grip on Gann, with help from Citrine. In fact I find Gann application to be interesting. Gann Gridlines for instance, gives a more periodic time frame to the chart, it also gives a equi-divide on the amplitude. So it becomes easier to predict the next move. Remaining uncertainties are covered by Gann Fan.

I have a little difficulties at first due to my in-familiarity to the Gann parameters but through a little bit of hard work, I manage to grasp a little more of the basic.



Fig 1 Fuyu Manufacturing Weekly

Fig 1 shows the Fuyu Mfg weekly chart which I have applied the Gann Gridlines and the Gann Fan. It shows that Fuyu at a cross road on the negative gredient of the Gann Grid. The grid line as I see acts as the resistance of the stock. However, if Fuyu is strong enough, it will break through and move up-ward. In this case, I tends to follow the later this round.

I was monitoring Fuyu for 2 days and noted that there has not been any successful trade, a huge disagreement between the buyers and sellers because a huge gap between the 2 prices. One interesting thing is that sellers do not agree to sell. Evidence of this is that the price trending towards the seller. The good thing is that we should see a break upward this week, the bad is that you have to take higher risk by moving towards the seller.

The low for Fuyu is 0.04 so I guess this is the support line, while the next level of resistance is 0.11. Base on the pattern it is attempting, Fuyu is likely to create a saucer base. I guess it may take some time for this stock
to climb. But short term wise we might just see 0.15. I will put a stop loss at 0.065 should I make a purchase.

Error of judgement

I was monitoring the STI during the recent days and noted that the correction that I certain would be here in fact did not arrive. I looked through my last entry and noted that the 1,962 destination was base on the assumption that the head and shoulder completion. In fact base on the previous set up, the STI would have broken the neckline and by right should be heading south now.

It did not happened. Instead STI broke the resistance line and headed North. Thus I have to re-examine where I went wrong on the chart reading.



Fig 1 STI Daily chart

As I moved my observation from weekly to a daily chart (fig 1), I have realized that STI has completed a Triangle and broken up-wards with a minimum objective of 2,503! I have made 2 errors here:

1) I have concentrated my reading on weekly chart alone. The advantage of doing so was reducing the noises. However, at the same time, it reduces the smaller details;

2) I was so certain of the head and shoulder completion (on daily chart) that it blinded me. Thus I was notable to see the triangle till it is too late.

Good thing that I am not seeing the same thing in my other charts yet. Rather, the whole set up made me doubt myself, "How can STI go down when the stocks are moving up?" So here is the answer for me now. So base on the latest set up, if I retreat to the weekly chart, a more probable set up would be a flag with objective 2,731.

AUD Vs SGD

I recall the first time I encounter AUD is some time in 1980s. My father deposited some money in something that is called Asian Currency Unit (ACU). At that time, AUD was very strong against SGD then, I remember it was AUD 1 to SGD1.50. Things changed since then and 20 plus years in a long way. We have seen ups and downs between the AUD and SGD over the years, and you can't make it clearer than the charts.



Fig 1 AUD vs SGD Weekly chart

One look at the chart and one would notice a double top formation. The formation already completed and AUD when down, crossed the neck line and now hovering with neckline as support.

The interesting thing about this is that it broke upwards and refused to retreat. In fact it is making attempt to create a penant formation so that AUD could gain new high. This would in efect cause the earlier Double Top formation obsolete.

At present moment, unfortunately, that it is fast losing its momentum. Both RSI and Stochastics are on decline, meaning that AUD is weakening. Considering a swing move, the measurement indicates AUD1 to SGD0.78. Its main support is still the neckline approximate at 113.8. Resistance 118.18.

My take is that there are more chance of down than up for the time being. The set up simply would not allow AUD to be up.

Tiong Woon -- Penant

I have been playing with Tiong Woon before I stopped for 2 years. As I sent through Tiong Woon chart again today, it seems like I have missed a huge part o its moved.



Fig 1 Tiong Woon Weekly Chart

Base on the chart, Tiong Woon has retreated from its peak to as low as SGD0.14, it has regained some ground since and now resting at 0.385. The more I see this chart, the more interest it is to me. It has in fact creating a penant, which is similar to a flag. So the flag fly half pole meaning that it is only half way to its final objective.

Base on the measurement, it should be heading towards SGD0.638. Good thing is that the weekly Moving Averages are both SUPPORTING the price, bad thing is that the cross is not very golden, so there is some risk involve. I would have to put in a stop loss at 0.365

HTL - History repeats iteself?

Many years ago, I chance upon HTL when it was completing its saucer pan formation. The move then was very interesting especially when the stock has been at bottom formation for many years (9 years). Its outburst was fantastic with a steep climb to the top.


Fig. 1 HTL weekly since 1995

I lost interest in HTL for a while since I already reached its top and retreated back to its bottom, plus, of course the birth of my son.

In recent weeks since the re-launch of my hobby, I took a look at HTL again.
HTL is again at its bottom working on a new bottom formation. The interesting part is that it is exactly the same formation during its last bottom, but the time frame is much shorter (less than 2 years).



Fig 2 Recent HTL chart pattern.

It is now creating the handle for its saucer pan. The theory of saucer pan is that the vertical moves would be the same length as its horizontal move. The prophecy of the pattern was fulfilled during the last ramp. IF this theory applies to all saucer pan, I gather that the move this time round won't be that spectacular. Nevertheless, it will still go somewhere, just might not be as great as it previously was. So History does repeat itself.

Aztech

Fig 1 Aztech weekly chart

This is an old company that I worked or between 1993 till 1998. It started off as a computer manufacturer who then moved into Multimedia and competed with Creative. the company was listed in 1994 with a starting price of SGD0.80. It was the first share that I have bought, I did not really make any money out of it, my first time. I left this company in the end of 1998 when they finally shut down their Singapore manuacturing site. I have not looked back since.

Recently I have received some up-dates on Aztech from an old colleague of mine who still work there. They are still into Electronics but moved most of its operation to China, even major part of R & D. Afterall, Michael Mun is from Hong Kong. They also got involved in Logistics and Constructions. This seems to be a strange diversification considering that they were never in this line. Nevertheless, Michael Mun used to run a Restaurant which Electronics has no link neither. In addition, the son seems to be taking over the management.

As I look at this chart, it is very interesting to me. The stock has gone bottom by 1998 and it has been more than 11 years in bottom formation. The structure creates a potential tripple bottom and the latest low looks like the bottom of the final Bottom. The stock is resting at 0.175 at the moment. Should this structure hold, its objective would reach as high as SGD1.44. Its present support level is 0.082 and I gather that next resistance level is 0.32. However, judging from its past performance, it might take another 1/2 a year to reach its neckline.

STI correction

I have been trying hard to download my data yesterday but it seems like there is some problem with the server and the download continued to fail after even many attempts. Somehow even after so many years the old problem my service provider has still remains.



Fig 1 STI Daily

I was going through the indices today and saw that most of the world indices retreating. STI is no exceptance. In fact, o all the indices, STI seems to have given a clearer picture.

The chart shows that STI has just completed a Double Bottom (DB) formation with a target of 2,470. Base on standard procedure, it cannot reach there in one go and need to take a breather. So The breather is here now, by theory, the chart should retreat back to the neckline at 1,962.

As the pattern goes, it is in process of completing a head and shoulder, presently touching the neckline. Should the STI breaks the neckline, the measurement of minimum objective is 1,962. Looks too much to be a coincidence.

At present the daily RSI supports the notion of a correction and I suppose we have some time to wait before STI completes its present minor trend. Its present trend support at 2,254, then 2,178. Resistance are 2,361 and 2,424.

Nasdaq reversing

ig 1 Nasdaq Weekly

I was browsing through the indices when I came across Nasdaq. Both the weekly chart's indicators Stochastic and RSI are reversing downward with divergence. It seems to me that Nasdaq is heading south at this moment.

The support level is the neckline o the double bottom (DB) at 1,662. I would take this as normal since correction is needed before it moves northward.The final objective o this index would be 2,049 base on its DB measurement.

KLSE

It is difficult for me to be optimistic about the market at the moment. One might think that the market is improving since November fall last year. Many are hailing recovery!! Honestly, would recovery be that easy when we just have a half year of bear after more than 3 good years?


Fig. 1 KLSE Weekly chart

Looking at the KLSE chart, a top formation is completed (Shoulder-Head-Shoulder), it broke and has since retraced to the neckline. It is now hovering between trend resistance and the neck line support. RSI and Stochastic are diverging indicating a continuation towards Singapore.Should it fulfill the SHS prophecy, its target is 675. Present resistance is 1,078.

Malaysia is at the moment very chaotic. The ruling coalition is trying hard to hold on to power while the opposition is struggling to stay together. No one is actually focusing on improving the economical situation. It will not be surprise that the SHS objective be achieved.

Dow Jones Industry Average (DJIA)

With the newly acquired data base, I am able to look at a few World Indices. DJIA in particular interests me. This is because this chart most o the time able to defy chartists' prediction. Not that I want to conquer this index but it worth much study.

During 2001, the chart has shown a lot of indication that it should be heading for 5,000, it did not happened mainly because o the 2 wars that USA engaged in which propel the index to record high. Was it really a wise choice? On technical term it is not, the whole action on risk a lower lower for DJIA should the it fulfill its Technical formation.



Fig. 1 DJIA weekly chart

Fig 1 shows the technical chart o DJIA. It is very clear by end last year that the chart completed a Double Top (DT) formation and even broke its neckline. The measurement sad to say would bring this giant down to it knee at 1,861.

As always, DJIA intends to again defy nature by breaking the neck line when it is supposed to touches and then continue its journey to Mexico.It has since then hover above its 23% retracement mark. Yet this time the pattern looks letargic and began to taper off. Both weekly Stochasitc and RSI has also shown divergence on their up-cycle, indicating that this Giant is about to U-turn.

At the same time, I did a wave count on the down trend and it came out very interesting. What I did not see is a first wave, instead the wave pattern indicated an A wave since it is only a Zig Zag pattern (abc), it then retraced with another abc upward to complete a B wave and followed by a 5 waves down to complete a C.

I have also just learned another term in Technical Analysis, traders remorse. This is when traders doubt the value of the index or stock price when it breaks the support/resistance level. There will be a retracement and then retest the support/resistance. DJIA is doing just that at this time.

It took 10 years or DJIA to climb to where it is, it took another 10 year or this chart to complete its top formation, it will 10 another 10 years for it to fall ( base on the theory that chart uses 2/3 o the time to climb and 1/3 o the time to fall). Yet it is possible that DJIA will not fulfill its obligation for its DT formation. The wave count seems to support this theory. DJIA has not complete its full movement.

So why did DJIA rebounded at that particular point? After I saved this picture, I added a trend line joining the 1987 and 1990 lows and extended this trend line. The point at which DJIA rebounded recently was where the chart violated the trend line, there was a false break and the trend line supported. However, this already indicate weakness in DJIA. There may yet be one more high for DJIA (or a right shoulder)

For the moment, 7,225 would be the support line for DJIA, while resistance at 9,729 and 11,750. Monthly RSI and Stochastic still support an up-trend. We might still see DJIA survive through for a while. The risk is that the longer it holds, the worse the inal outcome.

Hertz....

I was very pissed last week when I received a letter on the charge on me by Hertz over a "perceived damage" caused by accident during my trip to Australia last month. It made me so angry that I rant it out on my the other blog http://holistic-denzuko1.blogspot.com. I now have to go through the whole trouble to appeal as if I am the guilty party.

Because I am really mad at what they are doing, I took a look at their chart today. I don't have the historical data so I used the service of my broker firm.

Fig 1 Hertz Weekly Chart

To be honest, I am very surprise by 2 things, firstly it was only listed in USA since end 2006. It has been on a down hill since then until end of last year when it bottomed out, done a Double Bottom(DB), broken the neck line and hover above it.

I have to admit, the set up looks good. it is presently at USD8.44 and with the DB target at USD10, there are some way to go. In fact I am looking at a Reverse Should-Head-Shoulder formation in progress. On completion, the movement can reach USD18.40.

On the hind side, Should it retrace,USD6.64 would be the support level. I am likely to put my stop loss at this level.

The USD SGD relationship

I have started to watch the Forex ever since I started thinking about time deposit in foreign currencies. The irst was AUD, which I thought about before my family went or the tour. It has just started to rise at that time but we did not manage to catch the wave, and I did not have my data ready. I was depending on charts on some web-site which only have some basic tools or charting. Even then, the chart was showing AUD heading or SGD1.20 (before May 2009).

It is a little too late to enter this currency now and I started looking at other currencies. I am a little surprise that when most o them compared to SGD, they all seems to be heading south!


Fig 1 USD SGD Relationship

Just using USD SGD chart or instance, The USD has already reached the 50% retracement and is retreating from its latest high. At the moment it is taking a breather and probably creating a flag before heading further South (may be winter is coming to USA soon).



I have only used Stochastic for USD and I have placed in an experimental (for me) Gann Grid. Base on the stochastic, it is on the way up but is reversing, somehow indicating a possible drop. The chart has also reached a Gann Grid and thus a reaction is expected.



My estimate is that USD is going for a swing move to head for SGD1.37. If I am wrong and it still think North is better, it would rebounce to the 38.2% retracement mark of SGD1.54, ending the high for the formation o right shoulder of the Shoulder-Head-Shoulder formation. Then we should be looking at SGD1.25 per USD. May be it would be a good time to plan or a USA trip?