HSI, SSEC, Nikkei225 and STI and patellar Tendinitise

I woke up at 5:30AM this morning with cruciating pain on my knee cap. I was already having this mild pain the last few day, it was discomforting but not to the extend of immobilization. It was different this morning, more likely the result of constant kneeling during yoga session last night. I could not afford to bend my knee without inflicting jaw biting pain.

First thing I did was to create an ice pack to relief the pain, I recall the doctor recomendation of ice pack was the best way to reduce inflamation, and I did just that.It help to some extend and I still needed to endure the pain every time I move my joints even by a 5 degree angle.

I finally saw the doctor by 9:30AM. I was expecting some outcome like artritise or uric acid as the cause of my pain. But Patellar Tendinitise really came as a surprise to me. It seems that I have a mild injury on the muscle attached to my knee cap ( the triangular muscle right below the knee cap ), and the kneelings done last night was the catalyst for the inflamation. He told me that the problem will last for about 2 weeks. There is a quick way of injection which will allow the inflamation to subside in a few days time or the long way of taking medication ( mainly pain killers ). I chose the long way.


Fig 1 HSI Weekly Chart

So much for the Patellar Tendinitise, let's look at HSI. I have earlier created a narrow channel which HSI would be moving for a counter wave. Well, it is likely to have completed the d wave and now fulfilling the e. This also coincide with the downward movement of both Stochastic and RSI.

If e wave is true, its objective would be around 18,280 before it reverses with C wave of target 30,1265 base on a swing move. It seems like HSI is not really in that bad of a shape afterall, that is if my judgement is right.


Fig 2 SSEC Weekly Chart

I have in my earlier entry identified the symmatrical triangle on SSEC and that it is in progress of fulfilling its destination of 2,043. It is still half way there, pausing at the moment.

However, the indicators are again turning south, what's more, there is a small divergence on RSI. This also coincide with the chart reaching the apex of the Gann grid line, crossing from positive to negative gradient. SSEC is going to continue its journey.

For the moment I am having another thought. The short pause of SSEC created a possible scenary of a swing move, this would lead the index further south to 1,818. Seems like China is not really doing well.


Fig 3 Nikkei 225

Nikkei 225 shows quite a clear picture. A 5 wave (abcde) pattern forming an up-ward wedge, broke downward and heading for 8,359. It paused briefly (a few months) probably due to political uncertainty then. I am sparing a thought of using the swing move measurement again. If apply to Nikkei 225, its next target should be 7,701.

So far things aren't that bad even with 7,701. Its previous low was 7,000 in end 2008. In addition, both RSI and Stochastic is bottoming, of course it may be possible that these 2 could stay for a longer period of time, but they are not giving much leeway for new lows.


Fig 4 STI Weekly Chart

If I am so negative about the above 3 indices, what do I make out of STI?

The interesting thing is that the indicators (Stohastic and RSI) as bottoming and turning (RSI). However, I feel that this is more as a correction than reversal. For one the indicators movements are more aggreesive than the chart itself.

So far I have seen no clear pattern for measurement, so base on its resistance, STI may reach 2,947. In addition, its 21 weeks moving average is supporting at 2,894.

So far, STI seems to be out of phase with the other 3 markets which are exhibiting more negativity. However, it is unlikely to diverge from the rest of the world, it would eventually have to follow.

Cosco proceeding to C wave downward

Fig 1 Cosco Corp Weekly Chart

I am using the weekly chart to get a BIGGER picture on Cosco.

Looking at the indicators, they are actually 1/2 way down, so Cosco itself should be heading south, not only that, I suspect it might accelerate.

The wave count sort of indicated an abcde completion of a B wave. C wave to follow, this coincide with the indication from the indicators.

There are 2 support levels base on the moving averages. The 21 weeks moving average is supporting at 1.505 while 55 weeks moving average at 1.433.

DJIA likely in C wave downward

I originally wanted to write about DJIA in my last blog,but it was inappropriete. I have decided to start a new entry for this.


Fig 1 DJIA Daily Chart

As I read on the Dow, both the Stochastic and RSI are heading south but at the same time is at the bottom of the scale. This is normally the extreme end indicating over sold situation. However, it is also possible that the indicators will STAY for a while. Now even if the indicators rebound, it is possible that gains from indicators does not reflect that of the Dow itself. The indicators can move all the way up but Dow move marginally.

If I look at the pattern itself. Dow is presently following a very steep negative gradient of the Gann Grid line, it is likely to be travelling at great momentum downward.

Further to that, it is possible that Dow has completed a 3-wave B and now fulfilling C. If I consider Dow on a Swing move, its objective is 9,211. Its support is between 9,614 to 9,895. Resistance wise, 10,495.

A disaster due to incompetence

The big news during the last few days has to be the hostage situation in Philippine where a group of Hong Kong tourists were involved. In the end, 9 hostages died and the gunman was killed. It is sad but surely such situation, one can't rule out a certain death and sacrifices, can we?



However, looking at the way the Philippines police, or their SWAT team work in video above, it made my blood boils. The elite team in Philippine police force turn out to be a bunch of over weight clowns, creating blunders after blunders in the rescue attempt. In all the hostages were actually unecessary victims.

Worse still, the Filippino's behaviours on the aftermath really makes me think if they are barbarions in a civilized world, such lack of empathy to the victims and the embarassment of their own incompetence. The crime scene became a local tourist attraction where police, nurses and students pose for photography, the President was no where to be found during the crisis and refuse to be involve, he smirk at crime scene and even dare to claim that he was outrage.

To rub salt to the wounds, the morgue allowed the reporters to enter the premises and even open up the coffins so that the photographer can have a feeding frenzy on the deads. Is this their way of treating the deads?

This is appalling! If I am from Hong Kong the first thing is to make sure they understand the seriousness of their behaviour. Hong Kong should send all the maids back to Philippine. I know it is pitiful to the maids, but if they want to blame, it would be their fellow countryman.

Wheelock head and shoulders in the making

I was reading the forum today when I came across this article of which a Food Blogger went to a restaurant, gave his 3 friends a treat, then told the restaurant he did not want to pay for the SGD400+ meal because he was a Food Blogger.

His photos are now posted on the few blogs I visited and he is notably a young chap with hormone inbalance. Seriously what in his right mind think that being a blogger on food entitles him to free lunch? Exactly what value does his blog (I remember it is ladyironchef.sg or something, kind of sissy name for a male, don't you think? )would bring to the restaurant? How much publicity would he give for that lunch? I am not even sure if anyone is reading his blog, I for one sure ain't.

Well, for one thing, his blog is now overwelmed and people are flocking there and due to that, the blog is now down. So may be he has his wish come true after all, he is now notorious.


Fig 1 Wheelock Daily Chart

I was going through the charts today and stopped at Wheelock. Base on the pattern that I saw, I can't help but to find that it is very like a head and shoulders in the making, don't you think so?

If this is true, Wheelock is going down soon. At the moment, I won't want to do any measurement yet. may be after it crosses the neckline.

My senior engineers

I have this lady Engineer who came from India. She is here because her son is here working and studying as an Engineer at the same time. My engineer is really good at her work, she is meticulous in her design, mildly slow but ensure product is safe for release. She even took part in design of a rocket while in her home land. I have great appreciation for her talent, and I felt that her skill set qualifies her to be a senior Engineer, I pushed for her promotion.

However, her talent does not come without trouble. She is a difficult person to work with, she has very strong pride and she is ambitious. She is insatiable in being managed and she as greed in power. She disregard the unspoken rules and practise of the company and lacks the understanding of human relationship. Her nassicistic tendency lead her to think others should behave the way she think they should. She is stubborn and refuse to listen to the opinion of others. She has not even think if her action cause irritation to others and eventually sabotage her in return.

Now as I am in the process of working on the reform of my team, it makes me worry because I am sending my seniors out to meet customers, create awareness and bring back design opportunities. I have witness a field application Engineer in the past, he has high opinion of himself and much less to the lesser mortal. He even dare to call his customer stupid up front. Eventually he was forced to resign. This Senior Engineer of mine has a similar traits and I am in serious doubt that she actually qualifies to meet customers.

Seriously, I am having second thought about my push to promote her. Could the promotion have pushed her ego further? I do not want to think that I might eventually regret my decision.


Fig 1 HSI Weekly Chart

Looking at the HSI weekly chart, it is quite interesting because it is working within a band indicated by the 2 red lines. I have marked an alphabet on each counter wave and I would expect one more "e" to come. All the counterwave are of 3 wave patterns therefore a high likeihood for this to realize.

An alternate count would be the present pull back is a 4th wave of the "d", there will be a fifth which will break the envelop resistance. On both account, this will entitle HSI to short further north because the pattern change from a double-tripple top to a swing move, HSI might climb another 10,000 points as a result.

I met a person at China Town ...

After a customer visit yesterday, it was rather late to head back to the office.So I decided to head into town and fetch my wife.

On reaching town area, I ended up too early and there was 1/2 an hour to spend. The next thing I did was to went to China Town. There was this newspaper stand at China town manned by an old lady, I guess she was about 70 or so. While buying the newspaper, I struck out a conversation with her ( that happened to be one of my special skills ). I was surprise that she did not own the newspaper stand, in fact, she was employed.

Further chat with her revealed that she has been working in NTUC, resigned 3 times and was requested to go back. She admitted that as age caught up with her, it became more difficult to work fast. She decided to leave NTUC some time after her fourth return.

She also mentioned of a manager there who was very particular about cleaniness, unfortunately the work location was where all the grossaries, meats and fishes were process, one hell of a dirty surrounding. Yet he insisted on keeping the place clean, so after some goods were dragged across the place every time, she has to clean and mop.

She also mentioned about her present job. I asked her why does it not belong to her. She said that her employer was the one who went sourcing for the books, magazines and newspapers, it would be quite impossible if she is to do it. The employer,I guess, also hire drivers to deliver the goods to each marked spots of his territory.

Her pay was SGD18 per day, no CPF, no benefit of a standard employee. Every morning, she has to make her way from Yishun all the way down to China Town paying retiree fare of about SGD1.60 both ways. Breakfast of about SGD2.00, lunch of SGD3.50. All these come up to SGD7.10. Her take home amount is about SGD10.90. Assuming around SGD100 for utility bills per month, a further SGD3.30 is deducted, leaving SGD7.60.

Assuming she works 7 days per week, per month's saving is about SGD228. Minus misc including hair cuts, doctors visit, that practically leave her with almost nothing! She is practically living off back to back.

I asked her is her son help out with her cost of living, she responded that it is already difficult for him to support his own family, let alone helping her. Neither was there any help from the government.

I admire her because of her will to live on, she would continue to sit there under an umbrella in front of the MRT entrance everyday selling the papers. There is probably no probability of a pay rise and should and problem falls on her, there is almost no chance that anyone can support her.

We talked for about 15 minutes and she was enthuastic to tell me her life story, it would seem to me that it has been a long time since someone listened to her hardship. I can't help but wonder, she is just one of the many newspaper seller around Singapore and these people are living on the edge of poverty everyday. Yet, there is actually no set up on Government part to ensure the welfare of all these people. Well, probably there are but have the Government made known to the public on where they can find help?

As far as I know, the Government is willing to throw SGD400Mil for a gamble on Singapore's fame, yet how much has been allocated to support the less fortunate? Is glory worth so much more than to ensure the happiness of the people?

As far as I know, Butan was a country where the king there decided that his people's happiness would be the most important, that is why even though the lifestye is quite backward and there is a great potential for tourism, the king and the government there simply refuse to oen up and allow influx of tourist to retain their way of living.


Fig 1 STI Weekly Chart

As I come back to my chart, I recall during my restart that my focus should be on higher time frame. It might have been blurred through time and I ended up looking a each new bar everyday. May be it is because I pushed myself on writing blog entries. I really need to take a step back from what I am doing now.

STI as I see it should be on continuation downward as far as the weekly chart is concerned. Certainly Stochastic has turned downward while RSI might have slowed down probably indicating a correction (upward) is coming.

Another interesting observation is the 14 weeks RSI which is noticibly having 2 consecutive divergences through the 3 peaks. It is definitely strong indication that a big one is eventually coming.

I have not seen any confirm pattern as far. The chart will really have to break through some thing either up or downward. The support base on 21 weeks Moving Average is 2,898 while resistance 3,043, the previous high.

I haven't done any up-date since...

It has really been a while since my last up-date. Seriously I feel a little bad about this, I made a promise to myself to keep up with my blogging and yet seems to slagging.

At the same time, I find it hard a times to write something about the market. The market itself is just like me, slagging. I recall my last entry that STI is going to fall, and it did eventually. My prediction is about a few days too early.

Life has been relatively hectic recently, I was very busy with event management, right after a Techday in Vietnam, I rushed into presentation and sample preparation for the Board Of Directors (BOD) meeting. My team is supposed to show case the fruits of our hard work to these 12 or so personnel from the main office.

We did quite a lot from the kits, to decoration and the presentation slides. And you know what? They just took less than 10 minutes to go through the whole thing! Anyway, next, it will be another round of Techday, this time in Malaysia. I am not going to travel, instead, I am sending my engineer there. I just wonder if it would be a success or butcher?


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

On daily basis, I can say that STI is at the bottom mainly because the RSI itself is at the bottom and probably working on a divergence. The uncertainty is that it is cutting across the Gann Gridopen field. This normally would indicate a flat result, it would neither be up or down but simply flat.


Fig 2 STI Weekly Chart

While Daily indicators are at the bottom, the weekly ones are at the top. It does signifies a downward pressure. So on a larger time scale, STI is coming down but it is going up in the short term.

Well, nothing much that I can say about this index any more, let's see how it goes.

Is STI reversing?

I am really slacking recently on my chart reading, not to mention taking much effort in up-dating my blog. The reason is that for a short period of time, there is another event happening now which is of much thrill, registration for P1! Yes, my daughter is going into P1 next year and I am registering her into the best school that I can affort.

In fact, I got her into the school which both me and my wife agreed upon, it is a SAP school. So you might wonder why am I still looking at registration result if my daughter is already in?

Well, I got my daughter in through phase 2B about last week. This week is the registration for phase 2C, as my daughter is in K2 right now, I also get to know of some of her friends, and of course parents of her friends. I also get to know their ideal school of choices. It turns out those schools are not easy to get in at all. One of the parents is aiming for Maha Bodhi which by tradition with oversubscription of 120-127% and requires balleting even for less than 1KM. The other parent is looking at Rosyth, which by now is oversuscribed by 282%, chance of getting in is close to 3 to 1. Both staying right opposite the schools.

I worry for these parents, I got to know them even though not in depth. They are also father and mother of a child and they want the best for their kids. I can feel their disappointment should they failed to let their child get the school of choice.

I am a father myself and right before knowing the success of my application, I too feared I might have let my daughter down. I remember my daughter ever asked me, "baba, are going to get me a good school?"

I remember the mother who wanted her child to get into Maha Bodhi told me that her daughter also asked her, "what if I can't get into Maha Bodhi?" Imagine the fear of disappointing the one you love. The stress of making it falls upon the parents whom for certain part need to depend on luck.

So every night, instead of charts, I am looking at the registration result first from Teletext, then http://www.kiasuparents.com/. Seriously, I am pretty worried for the girl who aims for Rosyth, according to the teacher, she is really an intelligent girl, it would be a waste if her application fails.


Fig 1 STI Daily Chart

I have skipped the weekend on charts, and when I am back looking at STI, it went further up, not only that it penetrated the previous high of 3,037 and went as high as 2,039 today.

However, the indicators are giving further warning through confirmation of divergence. I am afraid it is turning as we speak.

The support for STI is 2,947.