On the road to radicalization under the leadership of Anwar Ibrahim

I meant to have this entry last week, but I am really reluctant to do so. What happens in my country now really disappoints me, even though I am already expecting such development.

Conflict between Israel and Palestine began around 3 weeks ago with Palestinians attacking Israel with 5,000 missiles and paragliding into Israel territory, killing and kidnapping civilians. The Muslim world kept silent abou8t the killing, some even celebrating the attack as Heroic.

When Israel retaliated with continuous bombing of Gaza where Hamas hid, this time without prior warning, killing Palestinians in the process, the Muslim world have an uproar about cruelty of the Israel military.

My country, not wanting to lose out in how humane they are, participated in their protest against USA and Israel. 

The prime minister of my country, Anwar Ibrahim, led the call to support Hamas and their Palestinian plight, making speech in parliament denouncing Israel action. 

Syed Saddiq from Bersatu, who is also the member of parliament for Muar made continuous claims onto how Israel has for years kept the Palestinians captive for years to justify Hamas' attack on Israel.  

My favorite politician Khairy Jamaluddin, participated in protest on Israel action at the US embassy (There is no diplomatic ties between Malaysia and Israel).

Their action was so prominent that Hamas called them up thanking them for their support of the cause.

Such hypocrisy from the Malay politicians in my country!

Do they really bother with the cause of Hamas, which is to eliminate all Jews from the surface of the earth? 

No, Malaysia is half a globe away from middle east. They can yell all they want and it really have little effect on the outcome of Israel-Palestine conflict. If Malaysia is truly fighting for the cause of Palestine, how about raise a motion in United Nation to stop the conflict.

These people are simply scoring cheap political points from the voters, primarily the Muslim majority, many of whom are ignorant followers of the faith. 

If they are such staunch supporter of equality and humanity, how about addressing the racial problem at home, where the Malay Politicians constantly demonstrating their fight for Malays by suppressing the rights of Chinese? How many times have I heard them call the Chinese to go back to China? I am a third generation Chinese here and I am born in Malaysia, I identify myself first and forth most a Malaysian. 

These people disregard the welfare of the country, the people and only focus on their hold on to power by playing the race card. The staunch support to Palestinian is simply a projection of incompetence within the government to improve people's lives. the largest race is given the most benefits and give outs yet remain as the most incompetence while arrogant to be the master of land. I wonder if they even have shame within.

I have predicted during the last election that Anwar is not one who can be trusted, he is incompetent in leading the country. It seems to me that I am right in my opinion. He constantly uses smoke and mirrors to distract the people over the fault of his leadership, constantly instigating fight with the opposition while sweeping the problems of the country under the rug.

My last update on the situation of Malaysia was Occult always lead to eventual collapse in June 2023. I was negative of the future of the country at the time. I estimated that MYR will continue to be weaken and KLSE may continue to slide downward.

So what is happening now?

Fig 1. MYR weekly chart

MYR closed at 4.7838 after the high of 4.7905. This surpassed 4.6884 that I estimated previously. Event after my previous post leads to another resistance of 4.8044. In addition, there is another resistance between 4.7826 to 4.9605.

The moving averages are supporting the continuation of MYR, gaps between the moving averages are widening. In addition, what seemingly looks like a 5-wave movement fails the criteria, with the "4th wave" violating the peak of 1st. There is a potential of a correction. However, there is still no sign of reversal as yet. It is worthwhile to monitor the counter. 

As spoken before, it may not be good enough to just look at MYR, mainly because USD is relatively unstable now, considering an incompetent president with a corrupt political arena focus on woke ideology. America at this moment is inching towards Communism and dictatorship. Unless there is enough determination to reverse the situation, we will see the downfall of a powerful empire.

It may be good to check out SGDMYR as well, which is more relevant.

Fig 2. SGDMYR weekly chart

The trend of SGDMYR is similar to that of MYR, It surpassed the resistance level of 3.49750 with a high of 3.5026 only to close at 3.4937. However, it broke through the previous high of 3.4938. Again, the moving average pattern support a continuation behavior. 

Where will it be heading from here on? The closest resistance I see is between 3.52316 to 3.5680. This follows by 3.63150.

The issue I see is that there is a decrease in momentum in its deterioration. It is possible that we might be seeing a correction soon. However, that will require a clear reversal signal.

The currency is indeed weakening, how is the market performing then?

Fig 3. KLSE weekly chart

In my previous entry on KLSE, I was already negative on KLSE. Since then, it reversed and retested 55-week moving average and seemingly having difficulty going higher.

Nevertheless, this creates a possibility of a breakthrough, with potential resistance between 1,471 to 1,508.

Did the Israel-Hamas war any effect on the world?

My first impression on the Israel-Palestinian conflict was in the 80s when I was attending my General Paper class. Even at the end of the session, I still had little idea what it was about, except for continuous conflict with Palestine Liberation Army (PLA) conducting terrorism against Israel. The part of the session include a discussion on the justification for terrorism.

I am reluctant to go through the whole chain of event leading to spiraling conflicts between the 2 races, I will just attach this video that I believe is relevant to the subject.

Video: From Palestine to Israel

Many years has passed with the level of terrorism on the decline, Hamas replaced the PLA in leading the Palestinian to fight against Israel. They managed to secure the governance of Gaza strip with manifesto of eliminating Israel from surface of the earth.

They practically brain washing the population of Gaza to fight against Israel, focusing their resource into training militias to prepare for programs disrupting Israel.

Last week, Hamas conducted a major attack on Israel, launching over 5,000 rockets into Israel territory and incursion into settlements as well as a concert event, killing and capturing hostages in hope to leverage in later negotiation with Israel.

Their incursion led to a short lived worldwide Muslim celebration of the mishap experience of Israel with call for Jihad. They highlight the suffering of the Palestinians while critical of Israel's treatment. It is only after the revelation of level of cruelty Hamas exhibited that all these celebrations were silenced.

As expected, Israel retaliated with even more aggressive counter strike on Gaza, vowing to eliminate Hamas from earth. Gaza was bombed continuously with few leaders of Hamas being assassinated. The residents of Gaza were told to leave their cities and they were pushed to move south towards Egypt border, which is closed.

Hamas on the other hand threaten to kill the hostages should Israel attach. It is to me a cowardice act.

I do not support Hamas, neither do I side with Israel. They were at each other's neck for years. The present generation of Palestinians and Israel are in fact tasting the fruits of their processors, and what they are doing will only deepen the hatred against each other in coming generations. 

I think of all who harm the Palestinians, Hamas is the worst. Their action does nothing to help improve the lives of Palestinians in Gaza who chose Hamas to lead them. Instead of channeling the resources to improve the lives of Gaza, they spent the money on militia trainings, building missiles and paragliders. 

Have they even projected the effect their attack on Israel? It is not going to cause much damage to Israel, it will just be like a mosquito trying to suck some blood, causing very little damage while causing much annoyance. Palestinians would have turned out having much brighter future should all these resources are spent on educating their future generations and improving their economy.

I am not in Favour of the leadership from Israel neither. I think Netanyahu government is despicable when they continuously instigate hatred between the 2 raced by building settlements in Palestinian land. They systematically marginalized the Palestinians in the process.

It is also noted in this round of conflict that Israel was warned more than once about the potential attacks. Yet it is quite a surprise that they are unprepared at all. Is it complacency or incompetence on Israel part? Or is it something else.

I am in doubt that Israel would be so incompetence, and they are complacence. I suspect the Netanyahu government let it happen to justify their action against Hamas. They will use the victims of the attack as the reason for their counter attacks. It is even possible that Netanyahu is using this to centralize power for himself. 

This is exactly what Hamas is doing at the same time, calling victimhood over the air raids from Israel and calling the Muslim world to initiate Jihad.

Both want a show down.

Will the war between them affect the world? I watched a news article which they interviewed an Israelite economist. He mentioned that Israel's economy does not play much significant to the world, there is no oil, and very little export. Israel is relatively self-sufficient when it comes to military supplies, even though it is also receiving support from its western allies.

However, war by itself is an economical event, it uses up resources and cause price to rise up. With the war in Israel, it may lead to escalation of inflation. To prove the possibility of this, let's look at the inflation indicator, gold.

Fig 1. Gold weekly chart

Gold was in fact on the rise since September 2022, it went into congestion downward by May 2023 and by the end of last week supported by the 144-week moving average at 1,822 closing at 1,831. Hamas attacked on Friday and gold shot up on Monday morning breaking through the moving average resistances.

It was only stopped by the trend resistance, closing at 1,932. If this guy breaks this level by the coming week, the tendency of further uptrend is high.

Where are the resistance should this happen?

 The more immediate resistance will be the Bollinger envelop at 1,985. Should this be broken, it will head for 2,105 to 2,184.

Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng Up-date 1st Oct 2023

It is 3 weeks since my last entry. For some reason, I was very reluctant to type anything. Not that I was lazy, the charts looked to me were so uninteresting, they all seem to at a crossroad and gave me a sense of uncertainty. I ended up moving away from charting for 2 weeks. 

I guess the timing was right, since my family was preparing a trip to Bangkok, Thailand, and we flew there last weekend. 

I remember my first trip to Bangkok was 1998, I went there for a job interview, I was surprised and impressed at how advance Bangkok was at the time. They have a flourishing economy and a strong industry. The people were resilient with ability to bite through hardship in life.

I was more surprised when Thailand viewed Singapore as their competitor. They were at one point competing against Singapore to be the hub for regional flight, it was only their language limitation that they lost.

They are also a constant threat to the Singapore seaport. There were a few occasions with consideration of building a canal joining the India ocean with Pacific Ocean, in effect cutting Singapore lifeline. Eventually, it was Thailand who rejected the proposal, considering the effect it will have on Singapore and that Thailand will be physically divided due to the canal, so Singapore rally owe Thailand big time on this.  

Bangkok did not disappoint me this round neither. It has fully recovered from the Covid-19 lockdown: The airport was buzzing with incoming flights and tourist; It has a huge collection of crowded mega malls and a very diverse range of local merchandise for different customer demand. 

Probably the only weakness for Thailand is literacy and its language barrier. I recalled the time I went for customer visits. The engineers I have met were very strong technically but could only communicate in Thai and could not handle English. If they improve on this aspect, I won't be surprised when they surpass Singapore.

Enough of the trip, let's go back to charting.

Since my entry on Dow Jones, Nikkei and Hang Seng Update 6th Aug 2023, time seems to fly very quickly and more than a month has past, it would seem appropriate for another entry on these 3 indices, after all, it has been a while.

Let's start with Nikkei  225.

Fig 1. Nikkei weekly chart

Since the last up-date, Nikkei completed a 3-wave pattern hitting the support zone. Although rebounded, it did not seem to go on a continuation and failed to break the previous high. 

It is now at the 61.8% projection support of 31,916 and possibly hit the 100% projection support of 30,868. I will consider another level here, the 55-week moving average of 30,125,

However, I believe this is a correction as it is reversed from a major 61.8% projection and should continue upward after that, with a possible target of 39,232. 

Fig 2. Dow Jones weekly chart

I did not start my analysis with Dow Jones this round, because on top of the Fibonacci measurements, I sense something interesting about Dow Jones. It may not be anything be I still believe it is worth noting on.

While Dow Jones rebounded upward after its correction, the uptrend some what seems lacking in momentum. I feel that Dow Jones is in progress of a top formation. A top formation in general requires a round 3 years to complete. It may be possible a down-turn confirmation by next year should this be true.

For the time being, Dow Jones just reached the 55-week moving average. We may see a "reversal on the coming week due to this support. However, the MACD is showing a divergence, we should be seeing a tendency of continuation downward.

In this direction, we should see a support zone between 27,216 to 30,446. Should Dow break the lower limit of the support, we should see a confirmation of top formation.

Should it be on a continuation upward, the next level of support will be at 38,105.

Fig 3. Hang Seng weekly chart

Hang Seng is very interesting, while I was negative on Hang Seng. It's down trend seems more like a counter wave, especially when the angle of down trend is gentle. It is possible that it will eventually result in a continuation upward.

For the time being, there are still more indication of down trend with support between 15,758 to 17,514. 

On a sideline, it is note that the Hong Kong government has finally started doing something. They announced the night market project.

It met with negative comments from many who are critical of the Hong Kong government. After all, many consider Hong Kong government as a puppet of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and have single handedly destroyed the city.

However, unlike the previous chief secretary who was an idiotic blind follower of the CCP. This new administration is making an attempt to improve the situation that Hong Kong is in.

The only problem here is: After under the "influence" of CCP for so long, the administration lacks the competence to drive the city. Furthermore, the tightening grip on its people and the purge on opposition leads to an outflow of its talents. 

Nevertheless, its attempt to improve on Hong Kong economy is a positive move.