YongNam Holdings Ltd

For today's exercise, I picked Yong Nam Holdings which was one of Friday's most active counter.

The chart seems to show the multi-year counter wave pattern. The pattern is quite a common sight. The chart also shown a completion of the B pattern of the counter wave and heading south. I don't know, it look as if I am quite a passive person.

The interesting part about this chart is that it has been dorment for quite a while since 2003 till 2007. The up-ward thrust subsequently equals the dorment period in length.

Lippo Maple Tree Indo Retail Trust

This evening I opened the land profile and chose to look at Lippo Maple Tree Indo Retail Trust (again it is a long name).

The reason I put this analysis up is because this counter show a different indication of a reversal.

This chart is relatively young beginning 2007, the poor chap was listed in the midst of a down trend and it took this counter years and even now has not yet reaching the price at first day of trade.

I have joined 2 bottoms to form the support trendline and what do you know?! There was already a false break in 2012. This shows 2 things:

1) The trend is weak and indication of potential reversal;
2) The trend line is prudent, if this line is broken, this will be a strong support turn resistance;

This trendline is confirmed broken recently on the week of 23rd of August 2013. It was tested since last week and for both week, the counter was stopped by the trendline.

The question is: What reversal pattern is there to prove the case? The arguement is weak, which is a reversal triangle.To date the formation is not yet complete as far as I am concern.

This is a BIG counter wave -- Capitamall Trust

I have decided to write about Capitamall Trust because firstly it is not in my profile. It is also because I have been looking at my profile over and over again, every single night and practically not much changes as I am glancing at weekly chart. I also need to practice my charting with different charts.

When I opened Capitamall Trust, first question came into my mind, " how is it that the bottom looks so strange?" On a second glance, it dawn on me with a few facts:

1)  The movement from 2010 till 2013 is in fact a top formation;
2)  This chart never did recover from the shot down in 2008;
3)  This chart is completing B wave and going down with a C;

Now how did I come to such conclusion? First of all, it does not comes with a possibility of any bottom formation at all, if there is, it happened during second 1/2 of 2008 till mid of 2009.  The pattern after that is more suitable as a top formation such as a double top or head and shoulders.

While the down trend from 2007 till 2009 consist of an abc pattern, it nevetheless can be consider as a major A.This makes the behavior from 2009 till 2013 more logical, since it is also an abc wave pattern. C will then have to be a 5-wave pattern.

As for the never did recover part, need I say more? It has never gone back to its previous glory even when STI is close to meeting the previous peak. In fact, putting a Gann Grid retracement, it barely touched 61.8% retracement line before receeding down ward.

From the looks of it, C is quite steep, I think the move may be swift.

Hang Seng about to come down



 Is there such a thing as a multi-year triangle? IT seems to be for Hang Seng Index.

Hang Seng first came down with an A wave between 2007-2008. It then retraced with what seem to be a B wave. But as it confined itself in a triangle formation, I would have to put this a an 'a' of B wave and as it is a triangle, it should likely be a 'a,b,c,d,e' wave pattern. The interesting part of it is, 'e' wave is completed.

So is C coming? Presently Hang Seng is stopped by its upper envelop and this week (with 2 days passed), it is negative. It is possible of a reversal week this week and we should be seeing a down trend continuation after many years. With measurement of a triangle, the objective is around 9,500.

Nikkei broke out

My last input on Nikkei mentioned of positive signs for the index. Today I saw break out.

I saw the last round the making of a triangle. But at the time it has not yet decided where it would be going.

It is different today. Nikkei broke out of the envelop and moved northward! So good news to Japan. In fact the moved started last week and this week is only a continuation.

An additional note on this is that a counter wave is more or less completed if it is only a simple ABC wave.

The objective of this index is 17,655.

STI stopped at its track

I think in my last post on STI last week, I mentioned of resistances to block its progress.

It seems that the resistance is prudence. The diagram shows that STI actually tried to break through the resistance but retracted at the end of the week.

It is after 2 days for this week and we are still not seeing STI breaking this line. If it continues to stagnant this week, we will have an an harami star, a possible indication of reversal.

The penny stocks however are having a field day, most of them regained a lot of ground by the end of today.

Mirach Energy

This is Mirach Energy. I noticed this counter when I check up the most active stocks for today.

Why do I think this counter is interesting?First of all, this is a pretty young counter with its life began in 2004. It went to its high @0.90 by early 2006 and then striaght to the bottom. Since then it has spent years between 2008 till now on bottom formation delivering a double bottom, then it shot up. in fact its first shot has already surpass the minimum objective of the double bottom. It has since retraced back to the neck line and followed by a second shoot up.

So what should we be expecting of this counter? I am looking at a possible penant (flag)which gives the objective of SGD0.75, I won't be surprise that it will shoot up in a few weeks time.There is definite a resistance @0.90.

For now, it should be retracing back down to take a breather.

Is Singapore still in recession 2?

No chart on this entry, just an observation.

I have spent more time catching up with the chart analysis and I noticed 2 phenomena:

1)  There are a very very large herd of penny stocks in the market, in fact, you can easily hit one if you throw a stone;
2)  Many of these stocks, and I mean MANY! Which started life before 1998 have actually been shot down during the period of recession and has never ever recovered.

These 2 observations tell me that in general, Singapore has been in a slump since 1998, more than 10 years! Why has STI instead deviates so much to the extend that it not only recovered, superceded, shot down and then rised up one more time?

I recall that STI has been re-adjusted once and again with removal of the less performing counters and replaced with the higher performing ones, at the same time weightage were adjusted. In fact, you will see that the few performing counters are the blue chips link to the index.

So am I right to say that STI can no longer be a benchmark for the Singapore economy since there have been so much manipulation on this index?

Ever since the recession in 1998, I moved from a production base job to a sales and marketing in the Electronic field, what I saw was a sorry state of the industry and gone was the glory days of the 90s. Many companies, especially the distributors, actually depended on trades with China to survive. There is almost 0 business in the country.

I suspect my industry is not the only one, while running outside the company visiting customers, I also noticed buildings owned by some listed companies. They were all so quiet, as if they are seeing flat line coming.

The more I think about the economical situation in Singapore, the more I can relate to Japan. In fact if one look at Japan's chart, they will likely find Japan is in a recession longer than anyone else. But I think the most important lesson from it is that the people managed to pull through and survived.

If base on the chart, we are in our 15 years of recession. We are surviving this which is somethign worth celebrating.

HMI -- Spur of the moment

I was going through my homework for today and came across a counter called HMI. This counter has one of the strong percentage gain and went into the top 10 list. So it got me interested.

 

I opened up the chart for HMI and to my surprise this is a very volatile counter. It is not just the wave as a whole, even on daily basis it contain huge fluctuation. Certainly if I am into this counter, it will give me heart attack.

I first looked at what it did today which turns out to be a very strong push up-ward. Then I move to its past movements and noted that it is definitely not the first time this counter having this kind of spike.

Minus away the movement before 2003 which I would consider time needed for it to stabilize before it starts a life on its own. I think this counter is on the 3 counter wave and likely completing B, it should be going down with C.

The other view however, shows a double bottom in progress and it is completing the second bottom. Its neckline and resistance @ 0.20. This is not so likely for me as I found that the up-ward movement does not come with a 5-wave pattern. The minor counter waves overlap each other.

STI performing miracle



STI seems to have put up a great performance today. This is the second week which we see a gap up from its previous location. So is STI defying its trend?

 

 

My guess is that it is not. What my chart shows a multiple restriction given to this index. First it attempts to cross the moving average which is presently a resistance. Then there is the Gann fan and Gann grid. The last 2 times it tried penetrating failed.I will still say that it is coming back down.





Golden Agri double top.

I was going through the active list of today's counter and noticed Golden Agri. I have seen this counter before but because of the problem with my previous data set, I was not able to read the chart. So I guess, "what the hell, just consider a night reading material."

The looks on Goldne Agri is not good, a double top with objective @ around 0.27. It will be a drop of close to 50% from now. Worse, the pattern is confirmed as the counter already crossed the neckline.

Further more, it is in the middle of a counter wave. So there are more evidence to for a down trend.

FTSE a tripple top?

I have a brief glance at FTSE index today. It is very strange.

My data only went as far as 1984. I can only estimate base on as far as I can go back.

I assume that 1984 is the 1st wave. There is a small 2nd wave and followed by a multi-year 3rd wave from 1987 till 2000. IT is possible that the 1st and 2nd wave could have happened even earlier.

The thing I am uncertain about is the 4th and 5th wave. The chart does seem to show a 5th wave break down. This is because the 5th wave is lower than the 4th. I am also tempted to place the 4th wave as the A wave, but the 5th wave make it impossible to be B as B are normally a 3 wave pattern, this is a 5-wave pattern. If I consider this as part of B, then the a wave is too huge compare to the A wave.

So the A is most likely is true because it is a 5-wave down follow by a 3-wave B. Of course for the time being it is still not yet confirm.There is a resistance at 6950 mark (1st top).

If the tripple top is true, FTSE is going to be driven to the negative zone--> bankruptcy. Let's hope that if the formation does happen, the counter won't go all the way to fulfill the measurement.

China has been in a slump since 2008

Don't believe me? Just look at the chart below. This is Shanghai Composite index. Ever since 2008, it has never been able to climb back to its former glory. In fact it has been spending years on bottom formation.

 

So where did all these rumours come from? We see many Chinese tourists coming to our countries spending loads of money like they are worthless piece of paper. I ever witness on a plane that a few Chinese tourists was looking at the duty free catalogue and decided on the spot to buy a few thousand dollars watch.

 

While it may seem that Chinese are everywhere, we must understand that these are but less than 1% of the population, there are still a 99% of the population not making it.

 

A colleague of mine for instance stayed in Shen Zhen. While he works as a Sales Manager in the company, he cannot afford to buy a house of his own. The price is at such rediculous level that no one with a working salary can afford. This is only in Shen Zhen area, which is one of the 2 most expensive cosmopolitan in China, the other is Shanghai.

 

If you go further into remote part of China, you will see even worst situation. I went to Guang Zhou about 2 or 3 times. On the surface it is filled with richness, skyscrappers and nightlives (minimum spending in a Karaoke is RMB 2000/-, I checked). Yet behind all these building in the back lanes, you can immediately find poverty.

 

Many are still not doing well in China. It is only the Government's effort to show case a country climbing up to international level that makes it look rich. Theyc continue to invest and build buildings and cities to put in more firewood for burning. If you check on youtube.com, you will even find an article about Chian Ghost city.

 

This reminds me of its similarity with Japan. Japan at one point was trying to fund the economy by initiating endless numbers of project. such as building a bridge that go no where. China is doing the same now. 

Will Singapore be announcing recession by 2015?

I am looking at the STI chart and noted that it is a double top in the making. Base on the duration of its first top which takes around 2 years to form, I gather that the second top will take similar amount of time.

By the time it it crosses its neckline, it will be 2015. Gosh! it will be the same experience all over again, job insecurity, no business and no way to clear inventory. I don't know if I can take another round of beating.

 

1985 is the first recession I met, I was worry about the continuation of my student life then, 1998 is where manufacturing moved out of Singapore, leading to massive retrenchment everywhere. I was lucky to change my career path at that point of time. 2001-2003 gave me the worst feeling so far led to my own depression. 2008-2009 I learned to position myself strategically to ensure my own job security. Now come 2015, the competition in my new company is even more serious when it comes to skill set and capability. This is a group of elite in Electronic field and highly technical. I am competing with them using my marketing and strategic management skill. Again it is all about positioning.

 

Anyway, better start preparing for 2015 to come.

Japan is seeing the light at the end of the tunnel

I can't believe I am saying this. After so many years of stagnation and slump in their market, it seems that Japan is finally coming out of the deep recession.

 

I mean after being screwed by USA for so many years, taking up their worthless bonds, the market is turning. This is evident from the Nikkei index. While the chart here shows. a completion of a double bottom, this is nevertheless a small one of a bigger one. In fact the neck line of the bigger double bottom is located at 18,000 mark.

 

The move isn't complete after it fulfilled its double bottom minimum objective. As you can see here it is making a triangle. While this triangle makes it difficult for one to decide its next direction, the signs are good. Worst case, it retreats and touches the neck line before goign forward. The Triangle's objective if it breaks out now would be 17,000, very close to the 18,000 mark.

 

What I hope is that the Nikkei won't rise so quickly as I still plan to visit the country in a year or 2.

Is Singapore still in recession?

I was going through the charts the last few days and it made me wonder, "Is Singapore still in recession?"

While our index is all time high, in fact it is at the top, the charts that I visited do not tell the same story. Most of them have not recovered from the 2008-2009 banging and has been scraping for a living ever since.

Just look at Cosco for instance,  this is a counter at its best of over SGD8 during its glorious days. Ever since 2008, it plunged all the way down and could never climb back up again. It is trading at a record low of SGD0.74 today.

Cosco is not the only one. Many of the stocks did not follow and benefit from the STI climb and have remained sluggish.

The sign in not good, especially when the market is starting to tumble again.

Capital Commercial Trust

This is Capital Commercial Trust. Again I am seeing what's look like a completion of B wave and heading down with a C.

 

It is still supported by its trend line ( can this be qualified as a long term trendline since it started since 2009?). One possibility is that it is going to break this trendline next week and moving further south.

 

There is however another alernative. This would be an a,b,c,d,e wave of B. Joining a line on peak of a and c shows a tapered pattern, and this would be a wedge formation which will requires an additional 2 waves to complete B.

 

I don't know, if this is true, this would be one BIG wedge.

Ascendas ....



 I came across this Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust counter and I am curious, why such a long name? Just put Ascendas REIT and everyone would still know what they are doing.

 

Anyway, here is the chart. Looks like it has completed the B wave, either that it is extending to D & E, which I think is not likely. So it is presently going through the i -- v wave of C wave. I guess that the least it should do is to reach the Gann Grid crossing @2.00. Worst case at the moment is the support level of 1.82. Anyway, the trendline (the red lines) is broken already. To me it is going down.

So could this be the result of the cooling measures from the Singapore Government?

ST Cons Goods vs ST Technology

I am also looking at 2 different indices, below is  ST Cons Goods, I figure it is consumer goods. This counter has taken a heavy beating and is already fulfilling its double top objective. Seems like consumer goods in Singapore has not been doing well at all.

 

There is another index ST Technology (no, not from Singapore Technologies). This seems to be doing the opposite. IT has completed its double top objective. Not only that, it has formed a double bottom mirroring the Double Top. It has presently met its objective and is facing a resistance from the Gann Grid lines. I have also calibrated the Gann Grid to be more precise and surprisingly this is now blocking the advance of ST Technology. I would expect at least the next few weeks that this counter would be moving south.

ST Con Serv ( what is this?)

While going through the new data set from the service provider, I come across some interesting indices. There is this bunch from ST and with short abreviations.

Anyway, very few of them look good. There is this index ST Con Serv for instance, I would interprete as Consumer Service. Looking at the chart, it seems to be at the end of its top formation. It is a head and shoulders. The counter has broken its neck line and I gather that it is going to head south. Base on the measurement, its minimum objective should be around 490. Almost 1/2 of the now 784.

STI Wierd pattern

I actually couldn't figure out what STI is doing.

Is it because I have been away for quite a while and I have not been sharpening my saw?

I was looking at STI and I am pretty sure it is doing a top formation. and the fact that it is lower than the high of 2007, this could actually be count wave of a, b and c. This would be before it is going further down with a C.

I added a Gann Fan and interestingly, it is dropping level by level of the Gann Fan. In fact it has just dropped one lavel last week, so I gather base on the Gann fan that it will not exceed 3,150, this week at least.