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Web thoughts-denzuko1.blogspot.com

My Charting Blog

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is or me to record my thoughts on the market. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts that I read and readers should not take it as absolute.

4/25/2015

USD AUD Weekly Saucer

AUD is one of the first currency that I experienced with. My father was actually trying to invest into AUD in the 80s through Asian Currency Unit (ACU). It did not work out well then as my father did not know the working of FOREX.
 
Fig 1 USD AUD Weekly Chart

It took me some time to analyse this counter. The original consideration that this may be a head and shoulder does not really go well for me as I see that the head is to big an the 2 shoulders are much too small.

It then strikes me that it is more logical to consider this as a saucer formation. Unfortunately at the moment I have forgotten how to measure this, but I remember that the move would be quite spectacular as it is like to be a shoot up since the counter has been mundane for quite some time (2010 - 2013) at the bottom.

I attempted to check out the web and noted that someone actually called I another name, tea cup and handle, I would still prefer saucer or even frying pan.

Regardless, the only way is up for this counter, though on short term it would be a retracement.

SGD EUR Weekly Wedge Formation

This is just for the record.
Fig 1 SGD EUR Weekly Chart

 
After its spectacular plunge since December 2014, the deterioration of the SGD EUR seems to be losing steam. In fact it is now a potential wedge and if breaking out now will lead to a retracement to SGD1.55. This I remember is very similar to a 5th wave ending.
 
The short term movement however, I believe it has not completed its downward movement as there is one more leg to go. I am also seeing a potential flag formation which will leads to SGD1.40. IF the break out is t this point, then the wedge objective will be at SGD1.50.
 
Nevertheless, the indicators are inching up with divergence on the third round.
 
This chart is definitely interested to look at.
 
On the hind side, my company is of European origin. With it our account are based on EUR. Therefore in European context, Singapore is definitely a much more expensive operation and it may lead to potential downsizing. Although I must say, Singapore is still much cheaper than China and Taiwan since they are more or less pegged to USD. Especially when China's cost of living has now sky rocketed making it a no no for investment. Plus the deterioration of the Chinese government, I am not surprise that China's mess will be worsening.
 
The one thing tat I can hope now is that when China fall out of grace, business will again return to Asean.

4/21/2015

SGD EUR at minimum objective

I am heading to Munich for business trip by 4th May 2015. I think it is time to evaluate EUR.

Fig 1 SGD EUR Weekly Chart

If I consider a zigzag movement base on c of C and D, it would have just met the minimum objective. The only problem is that it already violated the Fibonacci projection that I have placed. and should move towards SGD1.34. So if it is retracing, the most it would do is SGD1.51. which happens to be the support turn resistance level.

I would say that there is a high tendency for EUR to strengthen in the short run, since the counter is also supported by the centre line of the trend envelop.

The indicators are in conflict, on one side we have stochastic while at bottom with no divergence. The RSI on the other hand, is diverging up.

It is rather confusing for me as no clear indication on short run, though long run will still be a down trend with EUR further weakening.

USD retracing against EUD

I have typed about USD vs EUR earlier and that it will head for EUR 1.06 due to a multi-year double bottom. I took a further look and would need to revise the prediction.

No, I am not changing my mind, we are still seeing a much weaker Euro. The only thing different is the pattern.

Fig 1 USD EUR Weekly Chart

We can still consider a double bottom reversal, but it might be better to consider a ascending triangle reversal. This would be more appropriate. The measurement is definitely much lower compare to a double bottom, and minimum objective is lower at EUR 1.04. However, this is STILL a minimum objective and may still head for EUR1.05.

But what we have in the short run, we would be seeing a retracement of USD, I assume it aims to go back to the trend line of EUR 0.845 before heading forward. At present the indicators are moving downward, so this notion is supported.


4/18/2015

Very interesting GP Batteries

This is one counter that I am very interested at the moment, but unfortunately I am tied down by other commitments and no chance of touching it, so I am going to comment on this counter.


Fig 1 GP Batteries weekly

This is the chart of GP Batteries. At first glance you can see a HUGE wedge formation and the counter already has a break out from here, and yes, I am HUGE fan of wedge. The measurement of this wedge is SGD1.52.

Next, you will see between December 2013 to June 2014 as the lowest point of the chart. What is so interesting about this you ask? There are 2 gaps at the front and back. It indicates the bottom of this wave.

But wait, there is more! If you zoom the whole thing out. You will even fid a BIGGER wedge stretchin from 1997 to 2015....and it just broke out. The measurement this time is SGD4.35!

Fig 2 GP Batteries Weekly full range

The set back is that its most recent move created a small reverse wedge indicating a reversal downward. This is so far supported by the RSI and stochastic. But overall you will still find the indicators are trending up. So we might see a short term pull back before making further advancement.

I guess after multi-year slump in Singapore, it finally reversing, and this is after LKY's passing. IS this then an indication of the market celebrating a new dawn?

4/15/2015

Villianz

I went through the most active stocks today and Villianz happens to be one mark out in red. So I too a look.
Fig 1 Villianz Weekly Chart
 
Base on the chart I got a feeling that it is in process of a bottom formation, and it is multi-years. At the same time, it is possible that this counter may be stuck within the range from 0.03 to 0.22.
 
At the moment, it is inching p an in the short term, it broke the trend resistant line, but the moving averages are showing signs of down trend.
 
Fig 2 Villianz Daily Chart
 
On a daily basis however, the moving average is poised  for a golden cross up-ward. IT is also supported by both RSI and Stochastic which is also inching up-ward. I believe that is an indication of up trend, but no promises.
 
 

 

4/09/2015

Time to go Hong Kong....

....that is before it further strengthens.


Fig 1 SGD HKD Weekly Chart

I am not sure if I have written on HKD recently. Well, it is pegged to USD so there is nothing much to read from that angle, and it is much closer to my concern when come to SGD exchange rate.

The SGD HKD chart is interesting, there is definitely a top formation, you can consider both double top as well as a triangle. The triangle objective has been met at HKD5.67,the double top on the other hand points to HKD5.28.

Base on double top theory, there is also a tendency for the counter to retrace to it s neck line wich in this case fixed at HKD5.89. So mot likely it is retrace back to this level before proceeding downward to its objective.

So if anyone wants to travel to Hon Kong, wait for it to reach HKD5.89.

History repeating itself with HTL International?


I was looking through some of the old counters which I tracked a few years ago.
 
I came across this HTL counter and it actually look interesting, but not really because it is going up.
Fig 1 HTL International Weekly Chart

I first looked at this counter some time in early 2000s. It basically did a saucer nd poised to go up at that time. Unfortunately I did not pursue this counter other wise I would have been much richer.

The reason I am writing about this counter is because it seems to be repeating itself. The pattern from 2010 till now is very similar to the period of 1993 to 1998.

Can I safely assume that it is going to be bottom soon? The only problem for this counter is that it would be a long wait. Assuming that it is at its bottom, there is another 4 years to wait before the pattern complete and it starts trending up.

So I would consider this to be more of a long term investment counter.

4/06/2015

Japanee Yen Overview


I do not know how prudent is pattern formation in charting and how much would one counter honour the completion of this pattern.

Fig 1 JPY SGD Weekly chart

I was looking at JPY SGD weekly chart and I started to wonder as o how far back data there is?

Well, I got my answer, and it does not look good.

Looking at the chart, I can 't help but to wonder, " is there a possibility a top formation can stretched for more than 10 years? This formation started since 1986 till 2014. It recently broke through the neck line of a HUGE double top.

So does it mean JPY is going down to the time prior to 1986 and 100yen below SGD 1.00? If that is the can, is there something wrong with Japan now?

USD retreating against SGD

My last up-date mentioned USD will be retreating to SGD1.32 before pressing up again. So true to its form, it is presently retreating and as of today, landing at SGD1.349.


Fig 1 SGD USD weekly chart

On a weekly basis, the indicators are turning downwards and headed for below 50% mark. I gather that SGD1.32 is fast reaching. To be exact, the neckline support is SGD1.315. There is however, a tendency that this level is not going to be reached as the 34 weeks moving average is supporting at SGD1.323.

Anyway, looking forward to it.