Crude oil revisit

 Things are not going smoothly this week. 

It started with this flu virus ( tested not covid-19 ) going around my family and it is my  turn getting it this week, began with itchy throat, cough and now runny nose. 

Second, I was meant to use my demo trade to test out a system, but order loaded onto my live trade instead, ending with quite a bit of losses. Good thing that I have always practice stop loss and minimized the losses.

For a chang this week, I have decided to revisit crude oil as it recently cost an increase in my cost of living. The last time I did an entry crude oil decided to play a trick on me, going the other way. well, if it is read wrongly, it is my own fault.

Fig. 1 Crude oil weekly chart

To start with, I am using the chart available on https://finance.yahoo.com since the platform I uses does not have chart stretching more than 3 months (due to its commodity nature). As such there are some tools not available to me. Nevertheless, the tools on yahoo.com would be sufficient for the time being for me to conduct a rough read of its development. So what is happening?

Well, the war ( or military exercise as described by Russia ) has been going on for more than 2 months now and Russia is seriously going no where.

While crude oil is again climbing up after its retreat, it's momentum has declined. The weekly fluctuation has indeed reduced evidence from the bar spread, giving me a feeling Do these mean a tendency of reversal?

While I am seeing signs of weakness in crude oil, the 3 moving averages are still supporting an uptrend. What I can assume is the possibility of correction. The looks of the decline provides a possibility of crude oil in a zig zag B wave after an A wave decline. As such, we should see a C wave downwards. So where can the support level of C wave be?

My bet at this point is the 55-week moving average. Furthermore, it is possible to use Fibonacci projection  to provide a more accurate measurement, which unfortunately not available on this platform. Using the present position of 55-week moving average however, we can estimate the value to be USD85.00.

However, I have not witnessed a reversal bar on crude oil yet, so I should not be assuming a reversal yet, even though it is already at the previous high. patience, patience.

Nikkei is still my bet

 My interest last week indicated that Nikkei seems to be the counter out of the three with indication of reversal. So one week has past, what are the developments this week? 

Fig 1 Hang Seng, Dow Jones and Nikkei weekly chart

Dow Jones is supported by its 144-week moving average. On top of that, it is reaching its 100% projection support. There is a tendency for this counter to pause in its descend. However, what do I think its trend? 

There are some conflicting indication for my system. On one hand, I am seeing a steep decline the last few weeks, meaning that there is momentum on the down slide. 

One the other hand, the higher levels moving averages are still aligned for up-trend. It is possible that we are not yet seeing a reversal for Dow Jones, but more of a correction.

What about Hang Seng, the moving averages are maintaining their alignment of down slide even though it is the second week that Hang Seng turned green. It is presently resisted by its 8-week moving average. 

While the decline is more gentle after the last up-surge, never-the-less, we won't see a  so call "V" shape recovery. We should see some congestions for Hang Seng before reversal is possible, or in other words, it needs time for bottom forming. 

My feel is that its first climb should reverse after touching 55-week moving average.

I am still bullish for Nikkei, it was supported by 144-week moving average last week. However, it failed to climb this week. So what am I expecting for this counter?

To start with, just like that of Dow Jones, the higher levels moving averages are still strong on up-slide, even though the lower levels are crossing downwards. 

I feel that while there are signs of reversal, such as a more gradual descend and moving average support. The 2 weeks drop since 27th March 2022, is quite significant before its congestion. It is still showing signs that it is not ready to go up yet and there is still one more leg down. I might see some support between 24,713 to 25,373. 

Nikkei, Dow and Hang Seng

 When I re-initiated my entries to this blog end of last year, I told myself that I would make it a point to type in one article per week.

Yet there are a lapse last week. No, it was not because I was lazy or procrastinating. I reviewed through those counters that I monitored, I noted that there was little or no change needed to highlight at all. After long consideration, I have decided that there would be no entry last week.

So is there anything worth noting after one week of rest? Let's go to the 3 counters more crucial to my tradings.

Fig 1 Dow Jones, Hang Seng and Nikkei weekly chart

I have placed the 3 charts side by side for an easier comparison. After all, charting is very visual. So what am I seeing when comparing these 3 charts?

Well, to start with, all 3 counters are sliding downward. This is a no brainer.

Let's talk about Hang Seng first. Hang Seng actually managed to climb this week after a gap down, a surge of close to 868 points, with 795 points happened on Friday. Having said that, there is thus far no indication on its candle, neither are the moving averages showing sign of reversing. 

In my analysis of Hang Seng dated November 9th 2021, the support level was between 15,000 to 18,500, it touched on 18,500 by March 13th 2022 before re-bounce upward. It is now retesting 18,500 after retreating from its 8-week moving average resistance. This is also in coincidence with the 61.8% projection support. 

My take on Hang Seng is that the gradient of moving averages are still firm on down trend. The 8-week moving average will continue to resist Hang Seng's climb until a clearer cancel indication.

If it decides to climb, the next resistance level should be 21,954 and 23,677.

Let's move on to Dow Jones, it  managed to salvage some of its fall on Friday with a climb of 583 points closing at 32,200.While the higher level moving averages  maintain a bullish tendency, the candles thus far indicates otherwise. 

While Dow Jones is supported by the 144-week moving average this week, I feel that it has not yet completed its descend. If this is that case, the next support level is between 29,511 to 30,786.

Of the 3, Nikkei is the most interesting. Why? The support level is strong in Nikkei, Thee fall initiated in the beginning of this week was almost fully recovered.  Further more, the candles of the down trend overlap each other with a descend of lower gradient. 

I am seeing a higher chance of Nikkei to reverse itself heading up-ward. the resistance will be between 28,117  to 29,680.

Re-visiting USDSGD

 There are 2 public holidays happening in the coming week. We first have labour day follows by Hari Raya Puasa within the same week. We are in fact having a very long weekend this week. 

Unfortunately, my son is in the midst of his mid year examination, we therefore having more than staycation for this extra long weekend, we are having stayhome-cation....

Anyway, I am a little tired with sticking too Dow Jones, Hang Seng and Nikkei on this blog. So during the week, I was thinking much about what to write for the weekend. Finally, I have decided on USDSGD.

I have briefly mentioned SGD in my entry on strengthening of USD. I feel that it concerns me since I live in Singapore, and I am experiencing some inflation in recent weeks.  So how is SGD doing at this point of time?

Fig1. USDSGD weekly chart

In my last entry, I mentioned that the rise of USD against SGD was more gradual than some other counters. It seems that there is an escalation recently started on the week of 14th April 2022. So how does it look based on its technical setup?

Let's start from the bottom, we can see a double bottom November 2020 to July 2021, measuring using this setup, the minimum objective is 1.3911, which USDSGD is close to reaching this week. Does it mean that USDSGD has reached its peak?

Using Fibonacci projection with the bottom setup, USDSGD protruded past its 161% resistance level, while it retreated, the 161% projection resistance turned support preventing its descend. At this point, the few moving averages are aligned to support a continue climb of USD against SGD.  So is it going to continue its climb?

The thing is that the body of the bar this week overlaps and stayed within the bbody of last week's. It is difficult to say if it will continue its journey, considering the projection based on the more recent set up indicated the counter reached and reversed at its 127% resistance level. 

It is probable that the counter might congest with support at the various moving averages before it continue to move on.

If it is to climb further, there are resistance between 1.397and 1.40. These might be the more probable points which USDSGD might reverse.