Is USD in trouble?

 After some thought, I have decided not to push myself in updating this blog. It is becoming a routine and kind of feeling like work, and it is an uphill task to do this on a weekend.

Nevertheless, I will just have input at a slower pace. There is no point in forcing a conclusion to the trend direction when the derivative of my last entry is still in progress. Instead, I will update my blog if there is some interesting happenings, like the USD this round.

News on youtube.com (again on those focus on the moment) that people panicking due to weakening USD. The question is: is this true?

I won't go into all currency pairs, only SGD for the time being.

Fig 1. USDSGD weekly chart

My last update on this counter was Happy birthday Singapore....and what happened to you?, I have noted a continual down trend for the pair, meaning SGD to strenghten against USD.

It actually did and reached the 100% projection objective before reversing upward, crossing the 55-week moving average before going back down. So what is SGD doing?

The bars overlap each other, giving me that it remains in the congestion phase. while the bars turned green these 2 weeks, it seems weak due to short body on both bars. I suspect it will continue downward when it touches the moving average zone.

In this direction, I am seeing 2levels of support, the 61.8% of a more recent projection at 1.31428, coincidentally also the Bollinger band envelop and 61.8% retracement line (not shown).  

Crossing this level, the next level of support will be a major 61.8% projection support of 1.28653, which coincide with the more recent 100% projection.

Should USDSGD manage to resist its fall at present point, which I think is less likely due to the resistive moving average zone, I will see next level of resistances between 1.38921 to 1.42633, which is its 61.8% and 100% projection respectively.