Moving on to REITs

in my entry Revisiting developers of Singapore last week, I focused on those who involve in building projects. So it will be good to follow up with those who manage the rental, the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT).

There may be quite a few entities involve in REIT, there are 4 REITs that are more reliable for investment: CaptaLand Ascendas REIT, Frasers Centrepoint Trust, Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust and Keppel DC REIT.  

These REITs mainly involves in property management and rentals. Their focus segment are mainly commercial and industrial properties. Even though they have business oversea, Singapore is still their main base. 

Their business depends on the occupancy rate of the properties under their wings, therefore their business wellbeing will be a good indication the health of Singapore economy, and their share price show traders anticipation of Singapore market in the near future, at least 1/2 year in advance.

So let's see where the REITs are heading and if all of them are aligned. 

For the time being, I see support at its minor 618% projection of SGD2.55. If this is breached, he next support will be at between SGD1.8585 to 2.3109.

Should it decided to break upward, on the other hand, it should reach its first resistance at its 618% projection of SGD3.2769, with its 100% projection resistance at SGD3.8229.

Fig 1. CapitaLand Ascendas Reit weekly chart

CapitaLand last peaked on 17th September 2024, it reachd its bottom by 11th April 2025 and attempted to recover since. It reached a high of SGD2.92 by 20th January 2026 before retreating, it has yet to reach its previous peak of SGD2.99.   

Its climb, however, was not done through a 5-wave pattern. Each low violated the previous high, indicating that this is a counter-wave behavior, meaning that its downward movement is yet to complete. 

Furthermore, divergence is seen on its volume in its latest climb. The potential for further downslide is high.

To be frank, CapitaLand seems to be bottomed out on 21st October, 2022 and in process of bottom formation since. However, it appears that it is not ready for breakout.

Fig 2. Frasers Centrepoint Trust weekly chart

While having a similar pattern as CapitaLand Ascendas, Fraser Centerpoint Trust failed to reach a new high from its climb since 23rd February 2020. Its climb ended by 8th September 2020 and continued to congest since.

IT seemingly reached a bottom by 8th November 2022 at SGD1.90. Its upward climb since resembles that that of counter wave. I suspect it has yet to complete its downward movement. 

For this counter, I will see support at its 61.8% projection of SGD1.9592. If it manages to break through this level, the next support will be its 100% projection of SGD1.6423.

On a lesser chance of an upward breakthrough, its next resistance will be at 61.8% projection of 2.6323.

Fig 3. Keppel DC REIT weekly chart

Keppel DC REIT, like the 2 counters earlier, peaked in 2020. within a year of reversal from its bottom in March 2020 (thanks to Covid-19 lock down). It is not the worst of the 4 in performance, though reaching a high of SGD3.16.

However, it experienced a much steeper decline to bottom at SGD1.74 by 17th October 2022. Since then it spent 2 years in bottom formation creating what seem to be a double bottom by 21st October 2024. Unfortunately, it seems to fail in its outbreak, correcting itself till 7th April 2025. 

It retested the neckline by 16th June 2025 and has since retreated back, even though managed to reach a higher high of SGD2.44 by 15th September 2025.

There is a divergence warning from MACD, indicating potential weakness in its upward move. At the same time, the counter seems to be weak in its momentum, with overlapping bars while climbing higher.

The chance of downward slide is much higher at this point of time, even though the moving average alignment still supports an upward move.  What does it mean to me?

Its MA alignment is very different as compared to other REITs in discussion, while others have their MAs all entangled, there are much larger gaps between the MAs in Keppel DC. It is possible that Keppel DC WILL move higher in in short term, with potential resistance at its Bollinger envelop presently at SGD2.4302. 

This is also supported by the crossing of MACD after reaching its negative domain. 

Its resistance? the most immediate one will be its 61.8% projection of SGD2.3093. Should it manage to break this level and reverse the gradient of Bollinger envelop, its next level of resistance will be its 100% projection of SGD2.6003.

On the down side, I am seeing a 61.8% projection support at SGD1.4747. 

 Fig 4. Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust weekly chart

Of the 4 REITs, Parkway Life REIT seems to be the most trusted by investors, with its share managed a high of SGD5.20 by 16th September 2025. 

In contrast to the 3 counters above, Parkway Life REIT managed to sustain its climb since 16th March 2020 reversal, only peaking by3rd January 2022, while the other 2 reversed by 2020. 

It followed with a head and shoulder top reversal, reaching its bottom of SGD3.33 by 23rd October 2023. 

While it seemingly in process of bottom formation, its gentle behavior does not seem to show its readiness to reverse up. Its lows violate its highs, failing the pattern of a 5-wave pattern, similar to the 2 counters analyzed earlier.

Divergence is noted on MACD with lower peak while it managed to new high in its most recent climb since its bottom in 2023.

The possibility of continuation downward is higher than upward reversal.

Its most immediate support is its 61.8% projection of SGD3.2589, breaking this, its next support will be its 100% projection of 2.5198.

Overall, I am seeing a prolonged side way movement of REITs, is it possible that we are seeing a saturation and stagnation in the REIT market, with no new business set up while the existing ones continue to survive? If this is the scenario. 

Probably the REITs option would be to expand their business oversea, which should be more than just the Asean region. 

I would not suggest China at this point of time, I believe China may be entering a stage of stagnation. the difference with China is its dictatorial nature of governance. 

The present batch of leadership under Xi Jing Ping certainly lacks the competence in reversing the economic situation of the country. It made worse when its leader obsession to staying in power. China is heading in the direction of North Korea, introducing policies meddling with the economic direction.

I do not foresee any improvement for China until a change in leadership.

Revisiting developers of Singapore

After analyzing the 3 banks of Signapore last week, I grew curious: What happened to those property developers they used to own?

It was common for banks to own property development entities until the 90s. However, I recalled of a Government's decree to limit the banks' involvement in property development, and that banks should divest from their property subsidiaries.

DBS used to own DBS Land, which later merged with Pidemco Land and created CapitaLand. 

UOL still existing until this day, with Wee family having significant share to. The wee family is also the major share holder of UOB.

 OCBC did not involve directly in property development, it's focus mainly on financial loans and services.

Other than the banks, there are other entities in this market: Wing Tai which I have made an entry titled Is Wing Tai Properties going bankrupt? on 6th Jul 2025. City Development Ltd (CDL) that I have once traded in the 90s, Far East Organization and Fraser Property Ltd.

It is interest to note that Far East Organization is not a public entity while Frasers Property is not listed in Singapore (it was listed on French market).

Nerertheless, I will check on the 3 listed, for old time sake.

 

Fig 1. CapitaLand weekly chart

unlike DBS, CapitaLand is not at a new high. Instead it seems to be at the bottom and has not reached the previous high of SGD3.20. At the same time, it managed to break out from a correction on 5th December 2025, and even breached its 144-week moving average. 

In addition, divergence is observed on MACD when compared the bottom of 15th April 2025 and 3rd of Febuery 2026, indicating the possibility of upward trend. 

The moving averages on the other is in transition with lower time frames crossing the higher ones. This, however, is yet to complete with tendency of reversing. 

It is also important to note that CapitaLand is currently very close to SGD3.0747, its 100% projection resistance. However, I believe that it may cross this level and will face a stronger resistance between SGD3.1724 to SGD 3.3628.

There is only one indication of its downtrend, the double top formation formed between September 2021 to October 2023. However, CapitaLand has yet to reach its first support level of SGD2.1486, needless to say, its double top objective of SGD1.6515.

Fig 2. UOL weekly chart

UOL actually performs better than CapitaLand, reaching a high of SGD10.16. It seems like traders have more confidence in UOL. 

UOL moves with a strong momentum, leading to a steep gradient upward. Its movement since January 2025 is relatively clean, leading to not much technical setup, at least from my stand point.

As such, I have to zoom out until it enables some measurement, stretching all the way back to 2009. Looking at the whole formation, one should expect a top formation follows by reversal downward. However, the right shoulder of the head and shoulder stretched too long, depleting any possible momentum to push the counter downward. 

As of 2 weeks ago, UOL broke through its 61.8% projection. While this resistance level is insufficient in reversing its trend, it may still lead to a correction. When this happen, I will see support between SGD7.50 to 9.53, which is its 8-week and 55-week moving averages respectively.

its next resistance on the other hand, will be at SGD12.91, its 100% projection line.

Fig 3. CDL weekly chart

Of the 3, City Development Ltd (CDL) is the only developer with no direct relationship with the banks. I still recall in one trade in 1998 that CDL was SGD4.50. I bought in at 4.50 with target at 5.50, it reached 5.00 by 4:00PM and for some reason dropped back to 4.50 by the end of the day as buyers covering their position. I ended up exiting the trade with no gain on that day. 

Guess what?

It reached the objective of SGD5.50 the next day. I dropped CDL from my portfolio since.

So how is CDL doing there after?

CDL managed to reach a high of SGD16.98 by 2007 before it plunged to its bottom of SGD4.10 by 2009. It was close to this level again by 31st March 2025, hitting a price of SGD4.32, before reversing upward. 

It managed to cross the previous high of 15th August 2022 which peaked at SGD8,70. Unlike UOL, it has not yet crossed it's major 61.8% projection of SGD10.07. Its bar behavior is very similar to that of UOL, turning red this week with a short Doji.

The MACD of the counter is presently in the positive segment with no divergence indication.

I will expect it to continue at least until SGD10.09 before congestion or correction.

For the time being, support should be at SGD8.59, its 8-week moving average, and should it be broken, next level of support will be at SGD6.74, its 55-week moving average.

The banks of Singapore

There are many banks in Singapore, because Singapore is a financial hub. Many of these banks are of foriegn nature, focussing on business transaction and mostly do not branch out throughout Singapore.

Technically, there are only 3 banks that is ome grown: Development Bank of Singapore (DBS), United Oversea Bank (UOB) and Oversea Chinese Bank Corporation (OCBC). 

However, there were more than these 3 banks in Singapore. As far as I can remember, there are also Oversea Union Bank (OUB), Tat Lee Bank and POSB. 

During the 90s, the banks were more than banks, they extended their businesses into financing and properties.

These banks were "asked" to merged during the financial crisis in the 90s. The government led by Lee Hsien Loong at the time demand merger between banks. OCBC merged with Tat lee Bank, while DBS purchased POSB, which caused a stir in the market because POSB was with a much larger capital size than DBS. 

There was some resistance with UOB-OUB merger, and I remembered Lee Hsien Loong at the time threatened with consequences should the merger did not proceed.

I still ponder the reason for these mergers, because it is not a business decision but a political one. Were the mergers of the banks a front to justify the acquisition of POSB by DBS? POSB at the time was the largest bank in Singapore with majority of Singaporean have their money deposit there, at the same time, it was not known for its involvement in the commercial world. As a result, it has a large capital reserve.

It was believed at the time that the reason for DBS acquisition of POSB as to enable its utilization of this capital reserve. Was this desperation the result of the financial crisis?

I still remember the price of DBS was around SGD9.00 per share while UOB and OCBC was around SGD7.00 when I first engaged in the stock market by 1998. I is probably worthwhile to take a look now to see how far they go now especially when these are part of STI component and a major part of Temasek investment.

Fig 1. OCBC weekly chart

OCBC is the cheapest bank of the three by price per share. This may be due to the fact that OCBC by tradition is conservative in its business behavior. It prefers to play safe. 

The counter has been on a 60-degree climb since 22nd September 2025, am I seeing buying euphoria in OCBC? 

What might be alarming is the drop in its volume since 3rd of November 2025. Like what my teacher used to say, "not enough fuel to burn."

As far as the moving average set up, it is not ready to reverse. Instead, it may lead to congestion before reversing. Afterall, there is a need for top formation before clear signal from this counter to justify so.

Where are the resistance for OCBC then?

I would consider SGD21.08 to SGD22.09 to be a viable zone that will slow and possible congest OCBC.  

As far as support concern, I consider the present 55-MA support level of SGD17.37 a possible level should reversal happens.

Fig 2 UOB weekly chart

The share price of UOB is much higher than OCBC with its last closing at SGD36.74. I still remember the knowledge of UOB when I was young, my family used to all it the 4 toothpicks due to its logo of 4 straight vertical lines strike by 1 horizontal line.

 

A mild difference from OCBC, UOB did not witness a breakout from its previous high of SGD39.20. While beginning its climb after 3rd November 2025, the volume is already on decline.

It is still possible for UOB to climb higher, with caution. I see resistance by SGD38.40 follows by SGD41.57.

Should it reverse, which is a mild possibility, the first level of support should be its 55-wek moving average of SGD34.91. This follows by its 61.8% projection support of SGD31.00, but for this level to valid, UOB cannot cross SGFD37.36.

Fig 3. DBS weekly chart

Ok, I have to amid, when I first saw the DBS chart, I thought the price for this counter is crazy! It closed at a staggering level of SGD 59.12.

Unlike, UOB, it broke out from its previous high of SGD6.97. At the same time, it did not move at a 60-degree angle, it is more like a 45-degree steepness. Seems like DBS is not as exciting as OCBC. 

At the same time, I am not seeing a 5-wave movement, as the bottom of the "4th wave" violated the top of the "1st".

Unfortunately, I am limited in my Fibonacci set up, with only 1 pull back available to me. Base on this, resistance I can see is SGD59.45, and if broken through, next level is SGD73.64. 

As for support, I am using the 55-week moving average as reference. Should it correct, SGD49.40 would be a sustainable level.