War time is inflationary, gold is inflationary, why is gold coming down?

I have not been looking at Gold for quite a while, my last entry on this was Met a person from a Singapore team trading gold dated 28th February 2026. 

At the time, despite there was a sudden jot at the time, I was adamant at the time that gold should be on continuation upward as there was not yet indication of reversal.

It did not manage higher high, only reaching a high of 5,405 before reversing downward. There was still not any indication of trend change.

It fell close to its 55-week moving average at the time, corrected and later pushed through this support last week. While attempting to reached upward, it is now resisted by the same 55-week moving average this week.

As my recollection goes, old is inflationary, and there is a war going on in the middle east, disrupting the oil supply, why then gold is coming down?

To answer this question requires fundamental ability, unfortunately it is not my field of expertise. As for me, I am truly puzzled. 

anyway, gold is going down, meaning that there is no inflation. Next question: will gold be going own further or reversing?

Fig 1. Gold weekly chart

As like the previous up-date, I have not seen divergence of its direction, only confirmation.

Gold has just crossed its 55-week moving average on its down trend. and this week testing this support turned resistance, ending with a Doji uncertainty.

What else o I see? While it is on its continuation downward, its gradient became more gradual, indicative of a reduction in momentum.

At the same time, it just reached its more recent 61.8% projection support level of 4,054, as well as its earlier 127% projection of 3,932. My experience of this support level is a potential correction before continuation. 

Adding to its more gradual downward gradient, I anticipate a reversal upward at this time, retesting its 55-week moving average in the coming week. Should it stay above this level in the coming week, I should see a trend upward in the near future. I should see resistance between 4,263 to 4,705. The later coincides with 38.2% retracement level of 4,656.

If, however, it fails and congest, I will see it to go further downward. The next level of support then should be its more recent 100% projection of 3,556. This also coincides with its earlier 161% projection of 3,523.

What interesting is its MACD, which is fluctuating at extreme level. It normally oscillates at between -74 to 142. However, its recent movement went as high as 524 to a record low of -249. At the same time, I also notice the full length of each bar is much longer, giving the impression of top formation in progress.

I believe Gold may be unstable and fluctuation may be more erratic.

For the time being, I believe reversal upward is of higher probability for gold. 

On a side note, there is another formation. The present 61.8% projection of 4,054 also coincide with the neckline of a potential double top formation, which will result in a minimum objective of 2,628. However, this is quite far-fetched at this point of time. Zig-zag pattern resulting in objective of 3,556 is more probable.

Rohingyas are not Vietnamese

This week the Malaysian Government is in trouble on many things, and th highlight for the week is the Rohingya "refugees".

In 2016, Myanmar has a military crackdown on the Rohingyas who resided in their country, leading to their dispersion into many places including Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia.

Why Malaysia?

There are politicians here with vested interest trying to increase the support of Muslim community by showing their "love and care" for fellow Muslims, fought for acceptance of these refugees.

The result is 200,000 refugees who are stateless entering Malaysia while no further action, they are no allowed to work, children barred from state owned education and care, and worst, no refugee camps, leading to them going for low end rentals in Malaysia.

By 2026, the problem of the Rohingya started to emerge. While with refugee status, they diffuse into the society lie the Gypsies of Europe. Many settled illegal encampments what they built themselves, most impressive one was an unapproved 4 stories architecture for multiple families.

Those who settled into low-cost rental were seen slaughtering up to 20 cattle in the back street to "celebrate" Hari Raya Haji, with blood and wastes dumped into the drainage system, causing contamination.

Mothers and children are seen going from car to car at traffic junctions begging for money, which again is a hazardous act endangering them and the road user.

Yet for some reason, the authority turned a blind eye on them. Imagine that these are the action of the Chinese or Indians, I can assure you that politicians will yell at the top of their voice to condemn such action, the authorities with conduct further crack down at lightning speed.

Maybe it is simply that the Rohingyas are Muslim? Afterall, it is not the first time that Malaysia law is very gentle when come to Malay and Muslims, fearing that it will hurt their feelings. While the rest are outsiders no matter how hard they justify being Malaysians.

The irony is that among the fiasco, the authority claim that they are aware of the 4 stories building that is illegal, and that it was the landowner who allowed the Rohingya to build. Further to that, they have cut the electricity while allowing the water supply to continue. The building is now unoccupied.

The authority made further claim that the settlement there is to be torn down, waiting for the 600,000 funds to be approved.

I really can't believe what I have heard. The landowner agreed the illegal settlement built-up, should the landowner be the responsible party to dismantle? further to that, should the landowner not be fined for this illegal built-up? Why is it that it is the people who has to foot the bill for this activity?

There are many calls for the repatriation of the Rohingyas, not only Malaysia, but Indonesia as well. Aceh for instance launched protest to get them deported the problem is: where to?

Technically, the Rohingyas are stateless people, unlike Vietnamese in the 70s who could be repatriated back to Vietnam. Myanmar has not recognized Rohingyas are their citizens, neither will Bangladesh even though these people originate from there. 

If you are to deport someone, you have to send them back to the country of their origin. Rohingyas has no country of origin!

Fun fact, why both Bangladesh and Myanmar reject Rohingyas? Because the Rohingyas want to set up their own country, they are not pleading to the country they reside in, they demanded a piece of their own land cutting from the host country, they are even willing to take up violence to achieve this, evidence from what happened in Myanmar.

I am not surprised that when the Rohingya turn a sizeable group, they will demand a piece of their own land from the Malaysia government. I wonder the Malaysia government then willing to do so for "brotherhood"?

Why is my topic on Malaysia today? Primarily, I wanted an entry on SGDMYR, and Malaysia political development touches on the Rohingyas this week.

I wanted to have this SGDMYR entry last week as it was climbing up, but I procrastinated. 

Fig1. SGDMYR weekly chart

In my last entry on SGDMYR in Now that SGDMYR reaching its support zone, what's next? dated 14th Feb 2026, I was of impression of a correction of SGDMYR with resistance between 3.1193 to 3.2337 before continuation downward. 

SGDMYR is reversing up presently, Reached a high of 3.1640 only to close at 3.1586 on Friday. It is in midst of climbing further upward. At the same time, new development since my last read allowing more indication of its direction.  

SGDMYR has crossed its 61.8% projection of 3.1485 and is heading for its 55-week moving average at 3.1770. This is very close to its 100% projection of 3.1849. These are the resistance for this correction.

Considering is correction with formation of double-bottom, its objective will be at between 3.2335 to 3.2772. These 2 levels are very close to the previous prediction. 

Support wise is unchanged since I am using the higher end projection with its 100% projection support at 2.9470.