Singapore Election is over, and I have yet to do a market reaction....

It has already been a few weeks since the Singapore Election. It was relatively a big fuzz, not because of the new leadership, but more of the Gerrymandering of election territory, in favor of the ruling party, as well as the parachuting of paper generals from the military, as well as insertion of controversial candidate from the ruling party side.

It is not the first time that Gerrymandering happens in Singapore, neither is the parachuting of the "generals".  For long, the ruling party has been using Group Representative Constituency (GRC) as a form of barrier to opposition entrance to the political arena, it started with partnership of 2 "to ensure representation of minority race". It then expanded to 4 a group claiming a better servicing of its people, but with effect of protection to ensure its new candidates can penetrate into the parliament in safety.

This is when we see generals untested in the political arena resigned from their posts and joined the ruling party, participating in election and became a member of parliament. There is little need for these candidates to fight hard through election process to demonstrate their worth to the people.

Much news is made to demonstrate the leader of the ruling party, Lawrence Wong as a people person, with much of it having him surrounded by people wherever he went. I, however, is skeptical of his leadership. What has he done for Singapore so far?

He has yet to prove himself as far as I am concern. 

Yet, is this my personal opinion of there are others who share my view?

|I still recall many years ago when Lee Kwan Yew (LKY) was still the minister mentor of the country, it went through a round of election and the market surged the Monday after the result shown that the ruling party was back in power. 

LKY came out in the news commented that the ruling party was the right party for the country, so much so that even the market agreed with the result.

Guess what? The market tumbled for 2 weeks right after, this followed by the reversal of world into a bear market.

Not that the Singapore market being a leading indicator of world market, it is not. But the market will be in euphoric mood after result release and will revert back to its general trend right after. The political effect is short term while the economic effect is long.

What's more important is what action the ruling party is taking that is important.

So is the market supporting the ruling party this round?

Fig 1. STI weekly chart

The election took place on 3rd May 2025, so we need to see the market reaction on 5th May, 2025.

The market went up, but there was no euphoria. There is no excitement this round. While the market opened gapped up in the following week, it retracted all the way back fully recovering the gap. 

This is not a very good sign.

Even though the market continued to inch up the weeks following the correction, it lacks momentum and yet to cross the previous high of 4,005 on week of 12th May 2025.

More immediately, I anticipate a continuation upward but with difficulty. I will be looking for a breakout upward which based on my experience may be sign of exhaustion before it starts its descent. I suspect the Bollinger band which is presently at 4,047 to be its resistance level.

Of course, it is also possible that the uptrend of STI is yet to complete, and it is present in a correction phrase. Since the same apply to its uptrend is fully recovered its downward gap as a result of Trump's tariff. As such I might find support of this correction at 3,690. This is also very close to its 61.8% projection support, which present coincide with its 89-week moving average.

What if it breaks its previous top and continues upward?

The most immediate resistance will be its 61.8% projection at 4,215, this followed by 4,437, which is the 100% projection.

I think the more probable scenario is still having STI stopped by its previous top or Bollinger band before it begins its next phase of descent, In the long run, it may even go further than its 100% projection. 

Why I think so?

It has to do with the MACD indication. it has been showing divergence to the uptrend of STI. I believe STI is in the early phase of decline.

What's of the Singapore's situation, then?

For quite a which I have not sense a firm leadership in the government. There seems a lack in direction. Further what more can you say about a ruling party with more focus on fixing the oppositions instead of leading the country?

The ruling party is on deterioration. Worse for Singapore is that for so many years, there is not one credible opposition that can take over the ruling party which it is failing. the people have for so long been depending on the government for stability and lacks self-initiation for improvement. The people need to learn about self-sustainability and reduce their dependency.