Now that SGDMYR reaching its support zone, what's next?

My last update on SGDMYR was actually quite recent titled Malaysia is getting expensive dated 30th Nov 2025. I estimated its support zone to be between 3.0895 to 3.1013. 

I went to Johore 2 weeks ago for some bank work and Lunar New Year purchases. To my surprise, SGDMYR reached the top side of the support zone. I was tempted to perform some forex, but held off as I believe that the component has not reached its bottom.

The people of Malaysia were with much joy, and many were voicing, "Finally, Singaporeans will now have to come to work in Malaysia." 

The thing here is that there are already Singaporeans working in Malaysia, most notably Johore Bahru. There are Singapore entities opening manufacturing and sales offices there and they have to place some Singaporeans to manage their subsidiaries. 

The one thing that these Malaysians have ignored is: while SGDMYR dropped from a top of 3.72 to a low of 3.0795. The salary difference between Malaysia and Singapore is still 1 to 3. Will the entities in Malaysia willing to pay MYR9,000 for a Malaysian engineer in Malaysia? Singapore on the other hand can afford SGD3,000 for such Malaysian engineer, as long as he is competent and able to deliver.

SGDMYR will have to be at par for this Malaysia dream to realize, and at this point of time, the way the leaders of the country continue to emphasize on Ketuanan Melayu, we will continue to see an outflow of talents, no matter how much the government call for its talents to return. 

While they continue to demand others to be sensitive to the feeling of Malays, have they ever respected others, especially when they are the ones at disadvantage without the support of other races?

Understand this, respect has to be earned.

Since then, it continued on its decline for 2 weeks, reaching a low of 3.0795. This also coincide with its 127% minor projection level. Now that it is the "bottoming", shall I make some conversion?

Fig 1. SGDMYR weekly chart

First off, while sliding down, the bars are overlapping. it is meeting support energy. It shows potential sign of a reversal. 

However, there is yet indication from neither MACD nor the moving average set up. furthermore, I will have to see breakout downward, breaching the Bollinger envelop before expecting a reversal. If "reversal" happens at this point of time potential for correction is higher, and continuation will follow suit.

Should correction happen, the closest resistance will be its 8-week moving average of 3.1193, follows by its 21-week moving average of 3.2337. However, based on my experience 21-week moving average is normally week in resistance or support strength. a more prudent resistance will be its 55-week moving average. 

But I am anticipating a reversal, so I believe there is a higher potential for correction to only 8-week moving average before continuation.

Therefore, I have to look more at further support as such. 

Measuring based on a larger projection set up, the level that I have recorded in my earlier entry coincided with its 61.8% projection level at 3.1475, which was also the minor 100% projection of 3.1564. 

Its present level, on the other hands, coincide with the 127% of its minor projection at 3.0941, which prompts me to anticipate a correction. The only concern is: it failed to cross back upward after penetrating this level this week.

On continuation, I believe it will eventually reach its 100% projection at 2.9484, the only obstacle will be the 161.8% support of its minor projection support at 3.0140. Again, based on my experience, this is a prudent level of support or resistance.