Met a person from a Singapore team trading gold.

 I attended an open house of Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) yesterday.  My son's diploma course is reaching completion, and it is time to again consider the next step in further study.

The university courses focus on strength in science and technology and most of the courses result in at least Bachelor of Science. 

The interesting part is I met a person there who is part of a team of people trading in gold, reason? 

The mentor of the team has multiple years of experience in trading gold, and he guides the team on their trading strategies.

This caught my attention, as gold has appeared on my radar recently when news of gold "crashing". Meeting this person seems to a sign for me to check it out.

My last entry on gold was Gold shot up.... dated 21st April 2024, close to 2 years ago. I was bullish on this counter at the time with estimated objective of 2,527. As gold was not really my interest, I just left it there and then.

It is indeed a surprise that it reached a peak of 5,586 before correcting on 24th January 2026. More than double of my origin target. Where will gold be heading after this correction?

Fig 1. Gold (GC=F) weekly chart

First off, the plunge was strong, a full 1,189 plunge, a drop of 21% in less than 2 weeks. No wonder there is so much yelling at the time, especially from China.

It was however, supported by its 8-week moving average and went on continuation thereafter. while the MACD is very high at a height of 529, there is even a gapped up this week indicating much momentum upward.

Further to that, its movement maintained below its Bollinger envelop, the increment is quite in control.

What is its weakness then?

It is fast reaching its short term 61.8% projection resistance of 5,277.97. It is also getting close to its longer term 61.8% projection of 5,442.51, follows by its 100% projection of 5,538.97. 

It is close to its previous high of 5,586, and the plunge on week o 24th to 31st January 2026 demonstrated a significant level of weakness. Its move after that is milder in comparison, even with its gap up this week. The gap might just be due to exhaustion.

I foresee some struggle for gold in the near future, especially between 5,442 to 5,539. However, I am yet to see any sign of reversal here. It may correct or congest and will go higher base on its present indication. Reason?

Its moving average alignment, which suggest an uptrend continuation.

What is the significance of gold other than an indication o inflation? 

In the past, USD was gold standard, which allow USD to be more stable and stronger. The weakness of this is limitation of its circulation. Things change when the tie was broken and USD floated.

As gold is still traded in USD, it shows weaker Dollar every time gold climbs higher. We should be seeing inflation in place for US of A. This may be made worse with Tariff in place. 

The question now is: Is inflation just a US problem or is it spreading out? 

I will have to check on GBP and EUD which will be done on my next entry.

After looking at MYR, now the question is, "is SGD all right?"

After checking on SGDMYR last week, I was curious if it was MYR strengthening against SGD or it is SGD that grew weaker. It might therefore good to check on other currency pairs involving SGD.

The most important component is USDSGD or SGD. My last check on this component was in FD in USD with 3.6% interest, go for it? on 7th December 2025, that was quite recent. 

At the time, while USD seemed to be strengthening against SGD, I believed that it was a correction phase of a downward move. SGD reached its 55-week moving average at the time. I believe that it would reverse and continue its downslide thereafter with support at between SGD1.24438 to SGD1.2701.

Fig 1. SGD weekly chart

USDSGD indeed continued on its downslide upon touching the 55-week moving average. 

At this point of time, it has reached the said support level, reaching a low of 1.25865 and closing at 1.26753 this week. Its gradient of decline is similar to that of prior decline. Further to that it has just broken the previous lows of 1.27889 on 22nd September 2024 and 1.26981 on 29th June 2025.

At the same time, I am seeing a Doji and bars start overlapping on decline, there may be a short-term correction, especially when it is at its 61.8% projection support now.

So, how shall I estimate its future moves?

First, a correction upward. At the same time, its decline has not yet completed. 

It is possible for USDSGD to correct again with its resistance at its 8-week moving average of 1.27440 follow by its 55-week moving average of 1.29682. 

On continuation, I am seeing support at its major 61.8% projection of 1.24494. Breaking this, its next support will be its 100% projection level of 1.20538. I believe this will be a stronger support level and it may be the level that USDSGD reverses. This is where the 100% projection of both minor and major projection coincide.

Now let's move on to SGDJPY, my last update on this component was Monetary intervention on SGD and a case for the currency on 16th October 2022. I am surprised that it was that long. 

At the time, I estimated that SGD would strengthen against JPY with an objective of about 107 Yen per SGD. Apparently, it went further than that.

Fig 2. SGDJPY weekly chart

The chart of SGDJPY is quite messy, I assume data inaccuracy as the reason. I will avoid the super long tails to ignore the noises as such.

Even so. It can be seen that SGDJPY reached a high of120.016 on 9th July 2024 before correction.

The thing here is that it has just crossed its 100% minor projection and resisted by its 127% projection right now. Coincidentally, it is also at its 61.8% of its major projection.

It gained multiple support at its 55-week moving average and its Bollinger envelope before its continuation. Since then, it managed to reach new highs with its highest at 124.426 before congesting at its 8-week moving average. 

I believe it may further correction with next support at its 21-week moving average of 120.485, breaking this will lead to the next support of 55-week moving average at 117.3622.

On continuation, it will reach yet new high with first resistance at its 161% minor projection of 125.9501, breaching this will see further resistance at its 100% major projection of 131.733. 

In conclusion, SGD should stay strong. It also means that Malaysia's economy is improving since MYR is strengthening against SGD.

Now that SGDMYR reaching its support zone, what's next?

My last update on SGDMYR was actually quite recent titled Malaysia is getting expensive dated 30th Nov 2025. I estimated its support zone to be between 3.0895 to 3.1013. 

I went to Johore 2 weeks ago for some bank work and Lunar New Year purchases. To my surprise, SGDMYR reached the top side of the support zone. I was tempted to perform some forex, but held off as I believe that the component has not reached its bottom.

The people of Malaysia were with much joy, and many were voicing, "Finally, Singaporeans will now have to come to work in Malaysia." 

The thing here is that there are already Singaporeans working in Malaysia, most notably Johore Bahru. There are Singapore entities opening manufacturing and sales offices there and they have to place some Singaporeans to manage their subsidiaries. 

The one thing that these Malaysians have ignored is: while SGDMYR dropped from a top of 3.72 to a low of 3.0795. The salary difference between Malaysia and Singapore is still 1 to 3. Will the entities in Malaysia willing to pay MYR9,000 for a Malaysian engineer in Malaysia? Singapore on the other hand can afford SGD3,000 for such Malaysian engineer, as long as he is competent and able to deliver.

SGDMYR will have to be at par for this Malaysia dream to realize, and at this point of time, the way the leaders of the country continue to emphasize on Ketuanan Melayu, we will continue to see an outflow of talents, no matter how much the government call for its talents to return. 

While they continue to demand others to be sensitive to the feeling of Malays, have they ever respected others, especially when they are the ones at disadvantage without the support of other races?

Understand this, respect has to be earned.

Since then, it continued on its decline for 2 weeks, reaching a low of 3.0795. This also coincide with its 127% minor projection level. Now that it is the "bottoming", shall I make some conversion?

Fig 1. SGDMYR weekly chart

First off, while sliding down, the bars are overlapping. it is meeting support energy. It shows potential sign of a reversal. 

However, there is yet indication from neither MACD nor the moving average set up. furthermore, I will have to see breakout downward, breaching the Bollinger envelop before expecting a reversal. If "reversal" happens at this point of time potential for correction is higher, and continuation will follow suit.

Should correction happen, the closest resistance will be its 8-week moving average of 3.1193, follows by its 21-week moving average of 3.2337. However, based on my experience 21-week moving average is normally week in resistance or support strength. a more prudent resistance will be its 55-week moving average. 

But I am anticipating a reversal, so I believe there is a higher potential for correction to only 8-week moving average before continuation.

Therefore, I have to look more at further support as such. 

Measuring based on a larger projection set up, the level that I have recorded in my earlier entry coincided with its 61.8% projection level at 3.1475, which was also the minor 100% projection of 3.1564. 

Its present level, on the other hands, coincide with the 127% of its minor projection at 3.0941, which prompts me to anticipate a correction. The only concern is: it failed to cross back upward after penetrating this level this week.

On continuation, I believe it will eventually reach its 100% projection at 2.9484, the only obstacle will be the 161.8% support of its minor projection support at 3.0140. Again, based on my experience, this is a prudent level of support or resistance.