Google
 
Web thoughts-denzuko1.blogspot.com

My Charting Blog

It is interesting that I start off this Blog when the Singapore Stock Market is heading south. However, this makes it more interesting for me to write on as the market turned volatile. My interest is Technical Analysis, TA for short. I love to look at charts and predicting where they are heading. This blog is or me to record my thoughts on the market. The articles on this blog are based solely on my personal opinion on the charts that I read and readers should not take it as absolute.

1/24/2026

Revisiting developers of Singapore


After analyzing the 3 banks of Signapore last week, I grew curious: What happened to those property developers they used to own?

It was common for banks to own property development entities until the 90s. However, I recalled of a Government's decree to limit the banks' involvement in property development, and that banks should divest from their property subsidiaries.

DBS used to own DBS Land, which later merged with Pidemco Land and created CapitaLand. 

UOL still existing until this day, with Wee family having significant share to. The wee family is also the major share holder of UOB.

 OCBC did not involve directly in property development, it's focus mainly on financial loans and services.

Other than the banks, there are other entities in this market: Wing Tai which I have made an entry titled Is Wing Tai Properties going bankrupt? on 6th Jul 2025. City Development Ltd (CDL) that I have once traded in the 90s, Far East Organization and Fraser Property Ltd.

It is interest to note that Far East Organization is not a public entity while Frasers Property is not listed in Singapore (it was listed on French market).

Nerertheless, I will check on the 3 listed, for old time sake.

 

Fig 1. CapitaLand weekly chart

unlike DBS, CapitaLand is not at a new high. Instead it seems to be at the bottom and has not reached the previous high of SGD3.20. At the same time, it managed to break out from a correction on 5th December 2025, and even breached its 144-week moving average. 

In addition, divergence is observed on MACD when compared the bottom of 15th April 2025 and 3rd of Febuery 2026, indicating the possibility of upward trend. 

The moving averages on the other is in transition with lower time frames crossing the higher ones. This, however, is yet to complete with tendency of reversing. 

It is also important to note that CapitaLand is currently very close to SGD3.0747, its 100% projection resistance. However, I believe that it may cross this level and will face a stronger resistance between SGD3.1724 to SGD 3.3628.

There is only one indication of its downtrend, the double top formation formed between September 2021 to October 2023. However, CapitaLand has yet to reach its first support level of SGD2.1486, needless to say, its double top objective of SGD1.6515.



Fig 2. UOL weekly chart

UOL actually performs better than CapitaLand, reaching a high of SGD10.16. It seems like traders have more confidence in UOL. 

UOL moves with a strong momentum, leading to a steep gradient upward. Its movement since January 2025 is relatively clean, leading to not much technical setup, at least from my stand point.

As such, I have to zoom out until it enables some measurement, stretching all the way back to 2009. Looking at the whole formation, one should expect a top formation follows by reversal downward. However, the right shoulder of the head and shoulder stretched too long, depleting any possible momentum to push the counter downward. 

As of 2 weeks ago, UOL broke through its 61.8% projection. While this resistance level is insufficient in reversing its trend, it may still lead to a correction. When this happen, I will see support between SGD7.50 to 9.53, which is its 8-week and 55-week moving averages respectively.

its next resistance on the other hand, will be at SGD12.91, its 100% projection line.


Fig 3. CDL weekly chart

Of the 3, City Development Ltd (CDL) is the only developer with no direct relationship with the banks. I still recall in one trade in 1998 that CDL was SGD4.50. I bought in at 4.50 with target at 5.50, it reached 5.00 by 4:00PM and for some reason dropped back to 4.50 by the end of the day as buyers covering their position. I ended up exiting the trade with no gain on that day. 

Guess what?

It reached the objective of SGD5.50 the next day. I dropped CDL from my portfolio since.

So how is CDL doing there after?

CDL managed to reach a high of SGD16.98 by 2007 before it plunged to its bottom of SGD4.10 by 2009. It was close to this level again by 31st March 2025, hitting a price of SGD4.32, before reversing upward. 

It managed to cross the previous high of 15th August 2022 which peaked at SGD8,70. Unlike UOL, it has not yet crossed it's major 61.8% projection of SGD10.07. Its bar behavior is very similar to that of UOL, turning red this week with a short Doji.

The MACD of the counter is presently in the positive segment with no divergence indication.

I will expect it to continue at least until SGD10.09 before congestion or correction.

For the time being, support should be at SGD8.59, its 8-week moving average, and should it be broken, next level of support will be at SGD6.74, its 55-week moving average.

Labels: , , ,

1/18/2026

The banks of Singapore

There are many banks in Singapore, because Singapore is a financial hub. Many of these banks are of foriegn nature, focussing on business transaction and mostly do not branch out throughout Singapore.

Technically, there are only 3 banks that is ome grown: Development Bank of Singapore (DBS), United Oversea Bank (UOB) and Oversea Chinese Bank Corporation (OCBC). 

However, there were more than these 3 banks in Singapore. As far as I can remember, there are also Oversea Union Bank (OUB), Tat Lee Bank and POSB. 

During the 90s, the banks were more than banks, they extended their businesses into financing and properties.

These banks were "asked" to merged during the financial crisis in the 90s. The government led by Lee Hsien Loong at the time demand merger between banks. OCBC merged with Tat lee Bank, while DBS purchased POSB, which caused a stir in the market because POSB was with a much larger capital size than DBS. 

There was some resistance with UOB-OUB merger, and I remembered Lee Hsien Loong at the time threatened with consequences should the merger did not proceed.

I still ponder the reason for these mergers, because it is not a business decision but a political one. Were the mergers of the banks a front to justify the acquisition of POSB by DBS? POSB at the time was the largest bank in Singapore with majority of Singaporean have their money deposit there, at the same time, it was not known for its involvement in the commercial world. As a result, it has a large capital reserve.

It was believed at the time that the reason for DBS acquisition of POSB as to enable its utilization of this capital reserve. Was this desperation the result of the financial crisis?

I still remember the price of DBS was around SGD9.00 per share while UOB and OCBC was around SGD7.00 when I first engaged in the stock market by 1998. I is probably worthwhile to take a look now to see how far they go now especially when these are part of STI component and a major part of Temasek investment.

Fig 1. OCBC weekly chart

OCBC is the cheapest bank of the three by price per share. This may be due to the fact that OCBC by tradition is conservative in its business behavior. It prefers to play safe. 

The counter has been on a 60-degree climb since 22nd September 2025, am I seeing buying euphoria in OCBC? 

What might be alarming is the drop in its volume since 3rd of November 2025. Like what my teacher used to say, "not enough fuel to burn."

As far as the moving average set up, it is not ready to reverse. Instead, it may lead to congestion before reversing. Afterall, there is a need for top formation before clear signal from this counter to justify so.

Where are the resistance for OCBC then?

I would consider SGD21.08 to SGD22.09 to be a viable zone that will slow and possible congest OCBC.  

As far as support concern, I consider the present 55-MA support level of SGD17.37 a possible level should reversal happens.

Fig 2 UOB weekly chart
The share price of UOB is much higher than OCBC with its last closing at SGD36.74. I still remember the knowledge of UOB when I was young, my family used to all it the 4 toothpicks due to its logo of 4 straight vertical lines strike by 1 horizontal line.
 
A mild difference from OCBC, UOB did not witness a breakout from its previous high of SGD39.20. While beginning its climb after 3rd November 2025, the volume is already on decline.

It is still possible for UOB to climb higher, with caution. I see resistance by SGD38.40 follows by SGD41.57.

Should it reverse, which is a mild possibility, the first level of support should be its 55-wek moving average of SGD34.91. This follows by its 61.8% projection support of SGD31.00, but for this level to valid, UOB cannot cross SGFD37.36.

Fig 3. DBS weekly chart

Ok, I have to amid, when I first saw the DBS chart, I thought the price for this counter is crazy! It closed at a staggering level of SGD 59.12.

Unlike, UOB, it broke out from its previous high of SGD6.97. At the same time, it did not move at a 60-degree angle, it is more like a 45-degree steepness. Seems like DBS is not as exciting as OCBC. 

At the same time, I am not seeing a 5-wave movement, as the bottom of the "4th wave" violated the top of the "1st".

Unfortunately, I am limited in my Fibonacci set up, with only 1 pull back available to me. Base on this, resistance I can see is SGD59.45, and if broken through, next level is SGD73.64. 

As for support, I am using the 55-week moving average as reference. Should it correct, SGD49.40 would be a sustainable level.
 

  


Labels: , ,

12/28/2025

The three little dragons, what is happening to them now?

 I went for a family trip to Taiwan the last week, transiting through Hong Kong.

One might ask " why not fly direct?"

First of all, Hong Kong has been one other our common destination, and the last time my family went there was 2017, the year I got retrenched. Furthermore, lots have changed due to political interference since our last visit, and it is worth witnessing what changed since then.

Second, by transiting, we are able to arrange an overnight stay in Hong Kong, that gives us much time to have a last look at Hong Kong on our last family trip for a long time to come.

Yes, I believe that it will be difficult for us to go on another trip as a family after this. My son is going into National Service (NS) by next year. When his commitment ends in 2 years' time, my daughter will be heading out to the work force. By then, it will be difficult to coincide our time for another round of trip like this.

It was not smooth sailing for this trip though. We started with a flight delay began with 40 minutes, ended with a total of 2 hours wait on the plane, finally departing at 3:15AM in the morning. 

As a result, we landed at Hong Kong Chek Lap Kwok Airport in Hong Kong at close to 8:00AM in the morning, with our next flight departing in around 1/2 an hour time. It led to a mad dash from one far end of the airport, took the transit train through 3 stops toward the other extreme end of the airport. 

We eventually managed to board the flight, but our checked-in luggage failed to do so, only managed to reach us at 10PM after recovered and took the last flight of the day, with much help from the Taiwan Luggage management team at the Taichung Airport. 

The rest of the trip were a walk in the park neither. We walked around 10km per day for 8 days straight. We were all drained out by night, our feet hurt, it was difficult for us to even stand straight, and we ended with difficulty in walking. Nevertheless, it was a fruitful family trip after all. 

So what did I see in Taiwan and Hong Kong? Lots and lots of people, be it on the train, train stations, on the streets and shopping malls. It is just people everywhere. 

There are some different though, the prices. While food and merchandise inTaiwan is quite affordable, Hong Kong is basically see, no touch. Things are VERY expensive in Hong Kong, and this come from me, a person who stays in Singapore, known to be a very expensive place. Hong Kong easily outmatched both Taiwan and Singapore on this.

Taiwan on the other hand has very distinct line on pricing, by city and by classes. Restaurants are in general much pricy while street food is very affordable. Furthermore, its public transport I believe is heavily subsidized, making it very cheap. buses for instance is fixed rate of around 20yuan (less than SGD1.00) per trip. Even thr high speed rail that enable a trip from Taichungin to Taipei in 40 muntes only costs 600yuan (SGD27 per person).

Between Taichung and Taipei. it is about 1:3 in ratio. 3 nights in Taichung cost us SGD300+ while SGD1,000 for a 4-night stay in Taipei. 

On the surface, it hints to me that both Hong Kong and Taiwan are doing well. So the question is: Is this align with their indices?




Fig 1 TWSE monthly chart

I am surprise my last up-date of Taiwan TWSE was Taiwan... on 6th Nov 2013. The blog even lost the attached chart. I mentioned at that point of time that Taiwan was in a worse state than Singapore as it retreated to below the 1998 level, mainly the result of its industrial migration to China, causing a slump in Taiwan economy.   

Since then, Taiwan was making attempt to recover, taking a total of 8 more years. It has it thanks to Covid-19 (remember? The one event that lifted the world out of potential recession by locking everyone up in their own home). Its index is now more than double, reaching new3 high of 28,590 this week.

Taiwan main support to its economy is high tech manufacturing from waffer fabrication to contraction manufacturing supporting major players such as AMD, Nvidia, and Apple. Its focus on technology development gave it an edge over its competitors. 

The index is on a upward climb, but not in the form of 5-wave pattern since the "4th wave" violated the peak of 1st.It is also difficult for me to classify it to be in process of 3rd, because again the"4th" violated the 1st of 3rd.

The main concern here is the climb is at above 65 Degree, very strong momentum and need to be alert as correction can be as sudden. Do far there is no indication of reversal.

At present, I see resistance at between 29,058 to 32,223.

I also assume the data to be correct. While there was a huge dip on week of 20th Apr 2025, it stopped at 55-week monthly support. With such steep climb I believe that it is close to another round of correction. By then, support likely be at 19,738, its present 55-week moving average. My suspicion is that it will be a 3-wave movement lasting a much longer period (congestion).



Fig 2 Hang Seng weekly chart

While I see huge crowd at Taipei main station, it is due to its interchange nature, comprising of high speed rail, Airport transport, MTR and regional train system. Many people transacted through this station. People become scarcer outside this area. Plus, Taiwan public transport may still need improvements.

It is different for Hong Kong, it is people everywhere, be it in the MTR, on the street at the airport, inside the mall, inside small shops. Hong Kong has certainly not lack of visitors.

However, feedback from an Uber driver reflected that a difference on these visitors, which is much different than before. They are less willing to spend. Further observation noted that there are much lesser on the street having Chinese accent, I mean China type of Chinese, unlike my last visit.

True enough, while still planned by the Chinese ruling party from Beijing, this round of officials behaves differently as compared to the las, led by Carrie Lam, a blind follower of the Chinese communist leadership with anxiety to please. Indeed Carrie Lam is sinner of thousand past for Hong Kong, single handedly destroying the whole territory.

The present batch lead by John Lee focuses less on pleasing his master in Beijing, instead doing his best to revive the Hong Kong economy, which was damaged by Carrie Lam. While his team seemingly lacks competency in improving the situation, I believe they are doing their best.

The damage is done, my wife and I notice the different. Hong Kong seems to lack the drive we used to experience. They seem to be less hopeful of the future. A walk on the streets also noted the closing of small and medium retails. What in place is demolishment of old shop houses to amass a much larger plot o land to build a bigger infrastructure. Gone are the neon lights which gives Hong Kong its title of being the pearl of the east. 

My hope is that Hong Kong is left to heal itself. After master mind the destruction of Hong Kong, Xi seems set interest on another project, that is the destruction o Hainan Island (he seems to have a innert dislike to prospering area of China). Just hope that he leaves Hong Kong alone.

So what does the index say?

My last update on Hang Seng was in surprise! My condolance to charlie Kirk dated April 2025. 

It is quite interesting that I felt there was limited upside then. It managed to climb higher, but mildly, and congested after that. I believe that it is about to correct with support at its 55-week moving average presently at 23,944.

In my last analysis, I used projection to estimate its resistance. This time round, I assume a break out f its double bottom and utilize extension to predict a positive objective. 

It is presently close to its 61.8% extension of 27,724, which it will face further resistance. Breaking through this, its double bottom minimum objective should be 30,799.

his contradict my past prediction that was bearish in nature based on its multi-year double top formation. There is still a certain level of resilient in Hong Kong, it is not ready to die of. 

But again, it really need to be less dependent on China and open up more to the world. 



Fig 3 STI weekly chart

I really can't believe that after so many years, Singapore STI is still at the level of thousands.

this is probably due to the demography different of Singapore, with its people strength in management and organization management. As such it attracts MNCs to build regional office partially due to its high level of proficiency in English.

In addition, there is less uncertainty in Singapore where it is leaning more towards the west, as compared to Hong Kong and Taiwan. While Taiwan is eager align itself more with the west, it however, is not as proficient in English as compared to Singapore.

Howeve, I believe Singapore is not a place to amass capital, since its stock market is highly regulated, making it more challenging for its stock market to fluctuate. the government objective is stability, as such fluctuation in the stock market is an uncomfortable stimulus to the authority, especially after the tromour of 1996 attack by Soros.

Unlike Hong Kong with main focus on properties and tis stock market, or Taiwan with its dominance in electronics, Singapore economy is actually very diversified. It may surprise people that Singapore is a huge exporter in furniture, ornamental fishes and even coffee. This on top of its main contributor in oil refinery, port service, air hub, biomedical and electronics.

What of the index?

It's STI is on a gradual climb, very different from that of Taiwan TWSE and hong Kong Hang Seng. At present, there no signal of reversal, neither is there divergence.

At this point of time, I see resistance at 4,688, with support 4,499. China announcement of creating free trade port in Hainan does not seem to affect its climb and i is still reaching higher high.


Labels: , , ,

12/07/2025

FD in USD with 3.6% interest, go for it?

While browsing through internet this week, I came across an advertisement from a bank (forgot which bank already, probably DBS) promoting FD in USD with interest rate of 3.6%. 

The interest rate is quite generous considering what is offered by other currencies. However, is this a good time to convert some of my money to USD?

The last time I worked on USD was USD is dropping, bad for US? on 25th May 2025. Before that was Is USD in trouble on 22nd March 2025. Apparently the weakening of USD is alarming enough for my attention.

I estimated at the time of the support at SGD1.2733, it briefly breached this level, rechaing a new low of SGD1.26981 before reversing upward. Is this the end of its down trend?



Fig 1. USDSGD weekly chart

Since its reversal, it was rising up, at the same time, its gradient is much gradual, indicating a lack of momentum. Further to that, it is stopped and reversed at its 55-week moving average just the week before.

At the same time, its move is supported by the crossing of its MACD downward. 

I believe USD has not yet completed its downtrend. Not just yet.

At this point of time, its closest support level come from 61.8% projection support zone between SGD1.24438 to SGD1.2701. 

If it breaches this zone, I see a stronger support at 1.20428, which 100% projection of its major and minor move.

So which level is more prudent?

It really depends, if the downtrend this round is as gradual as its correction climb, I suspect it still be stopped by its 61.8% projection.at SGD1.2701. Otherwise, we will see a really new low at 1.20428 or even lower.

The thing here is, a weaker USD is really not good for US economy, it means smaller purchasing power on imports with things getting expensive, in another word, inflationary in play. Why? 

With globalization, it is difficult to avoid utilizing imports even at production level, it will influence the pricing of goods in one way or another. It will be the service sector that is less affected, Afterall, it is much easier to switch to locals as long as the wages are lowered compared to foreign hirings or outsource.

Well, guess I will have to wait a little longer before making a move for USD deposit then.

Labels: ,

11/30/2025

Malaysia is getting expensive

Malaysia Ringgit (MYR) is in the news recently. It grew stronger against Singapore Dollar (SGD). There are mixed responses to the behavior of MYR. 

Anwar supporters were quick to claim credit for him; it has to be his policies and actions that led to increased demand for MYR. Even though the political arena still lazed with racial discrimination and incompetent leadership. These leaders main concern is alcohol being served at banquet and the latest attraction being the rain fountain at KLIA, Malaysia's international airport. When a local comedian joked about the roof leak in the international community, he is deemed unpatriotic, by these leaders.

Malaysians working in Singapore complain that it is equal to them having a pay cut, strange that the number of Malaysian crossing the border to work in Singpaore daily still doing so, suffering hours of jam just to earn some SGD, since even when MYR strengthened against SGD, they still cannot get the same income working in Malaysia, the ratio is really 3 to 1 because the pay amount remain the same, except that one in MYR while the other in SGD.

In fact, the latest local election result in Sabah this week says it all. Of the 73 seats contested, GRS ( an ally of Anwar Ibrahim) won 29 seats, its rival Warisan with 25 seats while PH with only 1 seat. DAP , a component of PH, contested for 8 seats and loss. No party can claim majority in this election, which is what I favored. At the same time, it is an indication of distrust from the people to the present political arena.

The thing is that the strengthening of MYR is not a recent thing. I have already predicted this to happened back on14th September 2024 in A belated happy birthday to Malaysia...or was it a little too early? . Mind you, I am not saying how good I am, it is what the chart was saying at that time. This means that the market already sensed that the time that the Malaysia economy was improving.


Fig 1. MYR weekly chart

In my last update on this pair, estimated its support at 4.2836, and if broken, we should see support between 3.6987 to 3.8996. It plunged to a depth of 4.0940 before correcting to a high of 4.5160, testing its 55-week moving average. It has been on a continuation downward thereafter, reaching a low of 4.1185.

I am not seeing the bottom for the time being, since the moving average alignment in agreement with its trend. Furthermore, its MACD is in the negative zone, and moving downward. It seems that there is still momentum for more downside.

Unlike SGDMYR, it is yet to reach its 61.8% projection support at 4.0821, but a stronger support should be located at 3.9510, which is its 100% minor projection and its 61.8% major projection. 
Fig 2. SGDMYR weekly chart

I estimated support for SGDMYR may be between 3.2189 to 3.2838, it reached a low of 3.1975 before congesting. It retested the 55-week moving average twice before continuation presently reaching a low of 3.1633. Is this a good time to exchange MYR for SGD (Gosh! I can't believe I am saying this one day)?

On a minor scale, it is close to its 100% projection support level of 3.1507. However, I am seeing a mild congestion before continuation, it may retrace back up and the resistance I see is 3.1888 and if broken, 3.2844. On continuation, I see the next support level will be 3.0895 to 3.1013. This is also the same level with a major projection support of 61.8%.

For the time being, the downtrend is also support by its moving average alignment as well as MACD which is presently in the negative region. 
 
The thing is that having stronger MYR is not exactly a good thing. The weaker currency earlier gave enough excuse for inflation causing price to skyrocket, reducing the spending power of the people. Even when MYR has become stronger now, price is not going down.

Singapore on the other hand, has been maintaining a strong SGD thereby limiting the effect of inflation, as a result, goods in Singapore have been affordable till now. With a stronger MYR now, Singaporeans may be a little more reluctant to spend in Malaysia. 


Labels: ,

11/22/2025

Romance of three Kingdom

My laptop was not functioning properly recently. Upon first start up everyday, it tended to hang followed by a system reset. This happens only once everyday and it just functioning normally thereafter.

I figure that it is time to get a new one. 

While researching on different brands of laptop, I came to notice that the CPU models has not changed much, with Intel having its i5, i7 and i9, while AMD on Ryzen 5, 7 and 9. 

As I am about to go for a trip in Taiwan, I was thinking maybe I should get my laptop while on tour, after all, Taiwanese companies such as Acer and Asus are major players in laptop arena, and I am certainly a fan of Asus.

It is to my surprise that there are a lot more models of laptop in Taiwan with AMD CPU, compared to a more Intel coverage in Singapore.Moreover, there is a newcomer to the world of Laptop, Qualcom SnapDragon.

 Qualcom original focus was on mobile products such as smartphones and tablet, their strength was an efficient processing resulting in applications of smaller storage size and quick processing. However, it normally works together with Android OS, an alternative to the Window OS.

So it is to my surprise to see laptop with Snapdragon CPU operating on MS Window 11 OS.

With the CPU technology on stagnation and new competition, how is it affecting the giants in the market?

Let's start with Qualcom.



Fig 1 Qualcom weekly chart

Qualcom has been on the rise since year 2000, that was during the time of Covid lockdown. It corrected between 2022 to 2024 then on continuation till 17th June 2024.

It did not reach its 100^% projection objective.

Between June 2024 till now, it has been on decline. This is interesting, because between June 2024 till July 2025, it was on a 5-wave down. While it attempted to recover thereafter, It actually moved in a 3-wave pattern peaking by 27th October 2025. It has since been on continuation downward till now. 

So am I seeing a bear continuation or maybe there is some hope?

First off, I have not seen signal from the moving average, not just yet. the alignment is still with indication of support for uptrend. Furthermore, it is now resting right on top of the 55-week moving average. I believe it may head back up in the short run.

At the same time, I am seeing sluggish behavior on MACD, indicating a weak momentum for up climb, Only exception is that there is not yet a divergence indication. 

I think it may continue to congest.

At present, its support levels are 95.85 to 137.94 should it continue its down trend. Resistance on the other hand will be at 185.56.

Fig 2 AMD weekly chart

AMD was on a down trend since 4th March 2024, which ended on 7th April 2025, and for some reason it reversed and reached a much higher peaking on 27th October 2025. It has started its decline since then.

There was a huge gap in its climb, while there was a short attempt to cover the gap, it continued upward. But the momentum was weak as compared to its retreat since 27th October 2025. 

The plunge broke right though the 8-week moving average. While it looks like it is making attempt to cover its gap this time, it is not. Its reversal happened right after it hit the 100% projection objective of 259.06.

At present, its closest support is its 38.2% retracement support at 194.81. But I feel that its decline may head further to its 55-week moving average of 161.66. At least this is the level that I am seeing.





Fig 3 Intel chart

Actually, of the three, Intel is the worst performing of all. Why?

While both AMD and Qualcom raised from the bottom during the year 2020, Intel was at the top, with a double top formation. Since then, it was on a decline until 7th April 2025, which is the minimum objective of its formation.

Unlike AMD, it failed to reach new high, furthermore, the moving average formation still maintains a downtrend indication. The only good news is that MACD continue to show divergence.

I suspect that Intel is on a bottom formation and it is yet to complete. 

For the time being, the closest support level is between 24.24 to 28.92. 

Looking at the three charts, I can't help but to wonder if this is an indication of Intel losing ground while both AMD and Qualcom is eating into its market share. In fact, Intel's technological advancement seems to be stagnant for some time, while breakthrough is seen on AMD and Qualcom. 

Nevertheless, CPU market is not Intel's only business. A lesser-known fact is that its second largest business group is its network product. But again, its performance seems to be very weak when compared to another brand in the market, Broadcom. 

While I am reluctant to analyze Broadcom chart at the moment, it's level is even higher than that of AMD ( 188.50 ) and Qualcom ( 163.30 ) at 324.85. Intel share is at 34.50. 

 The market certainly does not view Intel favorably. Intel has been cannibalizing on its former reputation as a leader in the CPU and network solution market. It may already be at the end of this market perception. Already many already been claiming of AMD Ryzen supersedes that of the Intel core due to its 6nm solution while Intel at 0.775. 

Intel really need to review its market strategy or it will slowly become irrelevant.


Labels: , ,

10/19/2025

Signs of incompetent leaders

 Big news of the week is President Trump has again missed the Nobel peace prize. It went to another person Maria Corina Machado Parisca, a Venezuelan politician who are fighting against the dictator Nicolas Maduro Moros.

While striking a seize fire deal between Hamas and Israel is really a great feat, and his work on negotiating between Ukraine and Russia does require recognition, I believe Maria Corina Machado Parisca deserves the prize more than him, reason?

It must be strange that while I am more align towards Trump's actions, I do not agree that he deserves the prize more. Part of his intention is to value lives, that is amicable. However, part of his intention is to get the Nobel peace prize recognition, this is not a noble intention.

However, this is only a sidetrack of my entry today. I do not consider Trump to be incompetence, instead I believe that he is relentless in working for the welfare of the people of USA. 

It began with Flotilla, an organized sea incursion into Israel by a large fleet of small boats led by the moronic attention seeker Greta Thunberg. It was no surprise that they failed spectacularly, being stopped, detained and deported almost immediately.

While claiming the event for humanitarian purpose, it certainly does not serve the purpose. Instead, they managed to gather attention for themselves, Greta's speech is again being broadcasted worldwide, while the condition of the people of Gaza remained unchanged.

among the group of this Flotila are 23 members from Malaysia. I have no idea who they are, in fact, they are unheard of before this event. They became famous in Malaysia right after their detention by Israel, upon released, they claim how cruel is the Israel authority and how inhumane they were being treated, they only problem here is: they were in perfectly good condition with not even a scratch on them when they returned to Malaysia.

During their detention, the government of Malaysia led by Anwar Ibrahim was quick to voice their objection to Israel's action, claiming Israel has no right to do so even though the incursion itself violates the sovereignty of Israel and that Malaysia has not established any diplomatic relation with Israel. 

Protests were organized at the US embassy for some reason and boycott of US goods follows to "put pressure" on Israel, like Israel is part of US of A. Anwar even threaten with dire consequences to Israel should their hero not returned to them, as if they will do the same should there be illegal foreign entry to Malaysia.

Upon returned, the 23 Malaysia members of Flotilla were greeted with hero's welcome. Strong support were voiced for Hamas and Palestinians by the Malay community from the religious folks to the Malay politicians. Alternate voices to Palestinians were labelled as betrayal of Malaysia. Anwar even vow for Malaysian peace keeping force to Gaza.

Yet throughout this period, the government is going nowhere in local matters which is supposed to be they core concern. There are high level of racial unbalance within the nation, and Malaysia is still with many in poverty even though it is still an oil producing country. Not to mention, Malaysia still has a big issue with ineffective education system that fails to produce skill competency for nation building.

All these issues were sidelined by the focus on Gaza, which halfway around the world away, with its wellbeing having no influence on Malaysia future.

This reminds me of my observation on Ukraine-Russian war. How many politicians have "risked their lives" travelling on land to Kyiv to have that handshake of death with Zelensky, and then slowly faded out of the political arena. Furthermore, how anxious is the European Union led by Macron of France and Starmer of UK involved themselves in talks after talks to "support" Zelensky, all of whom later on demonstrated their total failure in their core duty, which is the wellbeing of European Union and UK.

It is not that Zelensky's hand is a curse, it is the incompetence of these leaders to start with. They can't solve their own issues on hand and attempted to redirect the attention of the people to show how "determine" they are on other people's matter.

This is the same thing with the Malaysia government. It cannot contribute to the wellbeing of its people and redirect attention to Gaza issue. The life and death of Gaza is not important, the attention of their own contribution is more important.

So, back to my hypothesis; incompetent governments help economical recovery. Is this the case for Malaysia? 

Let's look at KLSE.

Fig 1. KLSE weekly chart

My last update on KLSE was A belated happy birthday to Malaysia...or was it a little too early?. dated Sept 2024. I was of impression that KLSE was on an uptrend with resistance at 1,674 to 1,860. 

It managed to climb higher while only reaching a high of 1,640 on week of 29th September 2025, falling short of my expectation. It is now falling back to 1,612, its 61.8% projection line that it has surpassed earlier. 

In addition, I am seeing MACD in the process of crossing downward. 

KLSE is now supported by its 8-week moving average. 

I believe that KLSE is on correction as there is no indication of reversal yet. Which still means that it is heading downward, and will like be supported by it's 55-week moving average, which is now at 1,567. In between, there is another support at 1,582.

Should it be heading upward, I see resistance between 1,670 to 1,703.

It is quite obvious that the market is rising up while the government stuck in its position, it only started to fall when Ketuanan Melayu started focusing on Gaza. Sad, sad!

Labels: