The three little dragons, what is happening to them now?

 I went for a family trip to Taiwan the last week, transiting through Hong Kong.

One might ask " why not fly direct?"

First of all, Hong Kong has been one other our common destination, and the last time my family went there was 2017, the year I got retrenched. Furthermore, lots have changed due to political interference since our last visit, and it is worth witnessing what changed since then.

Second, by transiting, we are able to arrange an overnight stay in Hong Kong, that gives us much time to have a last look at Hong Kong on our last family trip for a long time to come.

Yes, I believe that it will be difficult for us to go on another trip as a family after this. My son is going into National Service (NS) by next year. When his commitment ends in 2 years' time, my daughter will be heading out to the work force. By then, it will be difficult to coincide our time for another round of trip like this.

It was not smooth sailing for this trip though. We started with a flight delay began with 40 minutes, ended with a total of 2 hours wait on the plane, finally departing at 3:15AM in the morning. 

As a result, we landed at Hong Kong Chek Lap Kwok Airport in Hong Kong at close to 8:00AM in the morning, with our next flight departing in around 1/2 an hour time. It led to a mad dash from one far end of the airport, took the transit train through 3 stops toward the other extreme end of the airport. 

We eventually managed to board the flight, but our checked-in luggage failed to do so, only managed to reach us at 10PM after recovered and took the last flight of the day, with much help from the Taiwan Luggage management team at the Taichung Airport. 

The rest of the trip were a walk in the park neither. We walked around 10km per day for 8 days straight. We were all drained out by night, our feet hurt, it was difficult for us to even stand straight, and we ended with difficulty in walking. Nevertheless, it was a fruitful family trip after all. 

So what did I see in Taiwan and Hong Kong? Lots and lots of people, be it on the train, train stations, on the streets and shopping malls. It is just people everywhere. 

There are some different though, the prices. While food and merchandise inTaiwan is quite affordable, Hong Kong is basically see, no touch. Things are VERY expensive in Hong Kong, and this come from me, a person who stays in Singapore, known to be a very expensive place. Hong Kong easily outmatched both Taiwan and Singapore on this.

Taiwan on the other hand has very distinct line on pricing, by city and by classes. Restaurants are in general much pricy while street food is very affordable. Furthermore, its public transport I believe is heavily subsidized, making it very cheap. buses for instance is fixed rate of around 20yuan (less than SGD1.00) per trip. Even thr high speed rail that enable a trip from Taichungin to Taipei in 40 muntes only costs 600yuan (SGD27 per person).

Between Taichung and Taipei. it is about 1:3 in ratio. 3 nights in Taichung cost us SGD300+ while SGD1,000 for a 4-night stay in Taipei. 

On the surface, it hints to me that both Hong Kong and Taiwan are doing well. So the question is: Is this align with their indices?

Fig 1 TWSE monthly chart

I am surprise my last up-date of Taiwan TWSE was Taiwan... on 6th Nov 2013. The blog even lost the attached chart. I mentioned at that point of time that Taiwan was in a worse state than Singapore as it retreated to below the 1998 level, mainly the result of its industrial migration to China, causing a slump in Taiwan economy.   

Since then, Taiwan was making attempt to recover, taking a total of 8 more years. It has it thanks to Covid-19 (remember? The one event that lifted the world out of potential recession by locking everyone up in their own home). Its index is now more than double, reaching new3 high of 28,590 this week.

Taiwan main support to its economy is high tech manufacturing from waffer fabrication to contraction manufacturing supporting major players such as AMD, Nvidia, and Apple. Its focus on technology development gave it an edge over its competitors. 

The index is on a upward climb, but not in the form of 5-wave pattern since the "4th wave" violated the peak of 1st.It is also difficult for me to classify it to be in process of 3rd, because again the"4th" violated the 1st of 3rd.

The main concern here is the climb is at above 65 Degree, very strong momentum and need to be alert as correction can be as sudden. Do far there is no indication of reversal.

At present, I see resistance at between 29,058 to 32,223.

I also assume the data to be correct. While there was a huge dip on week of 20th Apr 2025, it stopped at 55-week monthly support. With such steep climb I believe that it is close to another round of correction. By then, support likely be at 19,738, its present 55-week moving average. My suspicion is that it will be a 3-wave movement lasting a much longer period (congestion).

Fig 2 Hang Seng weekly chart

While I see huge crowd at Taipei main station, it is due to its interchange nature, comprising of high speed rail, Airport transport, MTR and regional train system. Many people transacted through this station. People become scarcer outside this area. Plus, Taiwan public transport may still need improvements.

It is different for Hong Kong, it is people everywhere, be it in the MTR, on the street at the airport, inside the mall, inside small shops. Hong Kong has certainly not lack of visitors.

However, feedback from an Uber driver reflected that a difference on these visitors, which is much different than before. They are less willing to spend. Further observation noted that there are much lesser on the street having Chinese accent, I mean China type of Chinese, unlike my last visit.

True enough, while still planned by the Chinese ruling party from Beijing, this round of officials behaves differently as compared to the las, led by Carrie Lam, a blind follower of the Chinese communist leadership with anxiety to please. Indeed Carrie Lam is sinner of thousand past for Hong Kong, single handedly destroying the whole territory.

The present batch lead by John Lee focuses less on pleasing his master in Beijing, instead doing his best to revive the Hong Kong economy, which was damaged by Carrie Lam. While his team seemingly lacks competency in improving the situation, I believe they are doing their best.

The damage is done, my wife and I notice the different. Hong Kong seems to lack the drive we used to experience. They seem to be less hopeful of the future. A walk on the streets also noted the closing of small and medium retails. What in place is demolishment of old shop houses to amass a much larger plot o land to build a bigger infrastructure. Gone are the neon lights which gives Hong Kong its title of being the pearl of the east. 

My hope is that Hong Kong is left to heal itself. After master mind the destruction of Hong Kong, Xi seems set interest on another project, that is the destruction o Hainan Island (he seems to have a innert dislike to prospering area of China). Just hope that he leaves Hong Kong alone.

So what does the index say?

My last update on Hang Seng was in surprise! My condolance to charlie Kirk dated April 2025. 

It is quite interesting that I felt there was limited upside then. It managed to climb higher, but mildly, and congested after that. I believe that it is about to correct with support at its 55-week moving average presently at 23,944.

In my last analysis, I used projection to estimate its resistance. This time round, I assume a break out f its double bottom and utilize extension to predict a positive objective. 

It is presently close to its 61.8% extension of 27,724, which it will face further resistance. Breaking through this, its double bottom minimum objective should be 30,799.

his contradict my past prediction that was bearish in nature based on its multi-year double top formation. There is still a certain level of resilient in Hong Kong, it is not ready to die of. 

But again, it really need to be less dependent on China and open up more to the world. 

Fig 3 STI weekly chart

I really can't believe that after so many years, Singapore STI is still at the level of thousands.

this is probably due to the demography different of Singapore, with its people strength in management and organization management. As such it attracts MNCs to build regional office partially due to its high level of proficiency in English.

In addition, there is less uncertainty in Singapore where it is leaning more towards the west, as compared to Hong Kong and Taiwan. While Taiwan is eager align itself more with the west, it however, is not as proficient in English as compared to Singapore.

Howeve, I believe Singapore is not a place to amass capital, since its stock market is highly regulated, making it more challenging for its stock market to fluctuate. the government objective is stability, as such fluctuation in the stock market is an uncomfortable stimulus to the authority, especially after the tromour of 1996 attack by Soros.

Unlike Hong Kong with main focus on properties and tis stock market, or Taiwan with its dominance in electronics, Singapore economy is actually very diversified. It may surprise people that Singapore is a huge exporter in furniture, ornamental fishes and even coffee. This on top of its main contributor in oil refinery, port service, air hub, biomedical and electronics.

What of the index?

It's STI is on a gradual climb, very different from that of Taiwan TWSE and hong Kong Hang Seng. At present, there no signal of reversal, neither is there divergence.

At this point of time, I see resistance at 4,688, with support 4,499. China announcement of creating free trade port in Hainan does not seem to affect its climb and i is still reaching higher high.

FD in USD with 3.6% interest, go for it?

While browsing through internet this week, I came across an advertisement from a bank (forgot which bank already, probably DBS) promoting FD in USD with interest rate of 3.6%. 

The interest rate is quite generous considering what is offered by other currencies. However, is this a good time to convert some of my money to USD?

The last time I worked on USD was USD is dropping, bad for US? on 25th May 2025. Before that was Is USD in trouble on 22nd March 2025. Apparently the weakening of USD is alarming enough for my attention.

I estimated at the time of the support at SGD1.2733, it briefly breached this level, rechaing a new low of SGD1.26981 before reversing upward. Is this the end of its down trend?

Fig 1. USDSGD weekly chart

Since its reversal, it was rising up, at the same time, its gradient is much gradual, indicating a lack of momentum. Further to that, it is stopped and reversed at its 55-week moving average just the week before.

At the same time, its move is supported by the crossing of its MACD downward. 

I believe USD has not yet completed its downtrend. Not just yet.

At this point of time, its closest support level come from 61.8% projection support zone between SGD1.24438 to SGD1.2701. 

If it breaches this zone, I see a stronger support at 1.20428, which 100% projection of its major and minor move.

So which level is more prudent?

It really depends, if the downtrend this round is as gradual as its correction climb, I suspect it still be stopped by its 61.8% projection.at SGD1.2701. Otherwise, we will see a really new low at 1.20428 or even lower.

The thing here is, a weaker USD is really not good for US economy, it means smaller purchasing power on imports with things getting expensive, in another word, inflationary in play. Why? 

With globalization, it is difficult to avoid utilizing imports even at production level, it will influence the pricing of goods in one way or another. It will be the service sector that is less affected, Afterall, it is much easier to switch to locals as long as the wages are lowered compared to foreign hirings or outsource.

Well, guess I will have to wait a little longer before making a move for USD deposit then.

Malaysia is getting expensive

Malaysia Ringgit (MYR) is in the news recently. It grew stronger against Singapore Dollar (SGD). There are mixed responses to the behavior of MYR. 

Anwar supporters were quick to claim credit for him; it has to be his policies and actions that led to increased demand for MYR. Even though the political arena still lazed with racial discrimination and incompetent leadership. These leaders main concern is alcohol being served at banquet and the latest attraction being the rain fountain at KLIA, Malaysia's international airport. When a local comedian joked about the roof leak in the international community, he is deemed unpatriotic, by these leaders.

Malaysians working in Singapore complain that it is equal to them having a pay cut, strange that the number of Malaysian crossing the border to work in Singpaore daily still doing so, suffering hours of jam just to earn some SGD, since even when MYR strengthened against SGD, they still cannot get the same income working in Malaysia, the ratio is really 3 to 1 because the pay amount remain the same, except that one in MYR while the other in SGD.

In fact, the latest local election result in Sabah this week says it all. Of the 73 seats contested, GRS ( an ally of Anwar Ibrahim) won 29 seats, its rival Warisan with 25 seats while PH with only 1 seat. DAP , a component of PH, contested for 8 seats and loss. No party can claim majority in this election, which is what I favored. At the same time, it is an indication of distrust from the people to the present political arena.

The thing is that the strengthening of MYR is not a recent thing. I have already predicted this to happened back on14th September 2024 in A belated happy birthday to Malaysia...or was it a little too early? . Mind you, I am not saying how good I am, it is what the chart was saying at that time. This means that the market already sensed that the time that the Malaysia economy was improving.

Fig 1. MYR weekly chart

In my last update on this pair, estimated its support at 4.2836, and if broken, we should see support between 3.6987 to 3.8996. It plunged to a depth of 4.0940 before correcting to a high of 4.5160, testing its 55-week moving average. It has been on a continuation downward thereafter, reaching a low of 4.1185.

I am not seeing the bottom for the time being, since the moving average alignment in agreement with its trend. Furthermore, its MACD is in the negative zone, and moving downward. It seems that there is still momentum for more downside.

Unlike SGDMYR, it is yet to reach its 61.8% projection support at 4.0821, but a stronger support should be located at 3.9510, which is its 100% minor projection and its 61.8% major projection. 

Fig 2. SGDMYR weekly chart

I estimated support for SGDMYR may be between 3.2189 to 3.2838, it reached a low of 3.1975 before congesting. It retested the 55-week moving average twice before continuation presently reaching a low of 3.1633. Is this a good time to exchange MYR for SGD (Gosh! I can't believe I am saying this one day)?

On a minor scale, it is close to its 100% projection support level of 3.1507. However, I am seeing a mild congestion before continuation, it may retrace back up and the resistance I see is 3.1888 and if broken, 3.2844. On continuation, I see the next support level will be 3.0895 to 3.1013. This is also the same level with a major projection support of 61.8%.

For the time being, the downtrend is also support by its moving average alignment as well as MACD which is presently in the negative region. 

 

The thing is that having stronger MYR is not exactly a good thing. The weaker currency earlier gave enough excuse for inflation causing price to skyrocket, reducing the spending power of the people. Even when MYR has become stronger now, price is not going down.

Singapore on the other hand, has been maintaining a strong SGD thereby limiting the effect of inflation, as a result, goods in Singapore have been affordable till now. With a stronger MYR now, Singaporeans may be a little more reluctant to spend in Malaysia. 

Romance of three Kingdom

My laptop was not functioning properly recently. Upon first start up everyday, it tended to hang followed by a system reset. This happens only once everyday and it just functioning normally thereafter.

I figure that it is time to get a new one. 

While researching on different brands of laptop, I came to notice that the CPU models has not changed much, with Intel having its i5, i7 and i9, while AMD on Ryzen 5, 7 and 9. 

As I am about to go for a trip in Taiwan, I was thinking maybe I should get my laptop while on tour, after all, Taiwanese companies such as Acer and Asus are major players in laptop arena, and I am certainly a fan of Asus.

It is to my surprise that there are a lot more models of laptop in Taiwan with AMD CPU, compared to a more Intel coverage in Singapore.Moreover, there is a newcomer to the world of Laptop, Qualcom SnapDragon.

 Qualcom original focus was on mobile products such as smartphones and tablet, their strength was an efficient processing resulting in applications of smaller storage size and quick processing. However, it normally works together with Android OS, an alternative to the Window OS.

So it is to my surprise to see laptop with Snapdragon CPU operating on MS Window 11 OS.

With the CPU technology on stagnation and new competition, how is it affecting the giants in the market?

Let's start with Qualcom.

Fig 1 Qualcom weekly chart

Qualcom has been on the rise since year 2000, that was during the time of Covid lockdown. It corrected between 2022 to 2024 then on continuation till 17th June 2024.

It did not reach its 100^% projection objective.

Between June 2024 till now, it has been on decline. This is interesting, because between June 2024 till July 2025, it was on a 5-wave down. While it attempted to recover thereafter, It actually moved in a 3-wave pattern peaking by 27th October 2025. It has since been on continuation downward till now. 

So am I seeing a bear continuation or maybe there is some hope?

First off, I have not seen signal from the moving average, not just yet. the alignment is still with indication of support for uptrend. Furthermore, it is now resting right on top of the 55-week moving average. I believe it may head back up in the short run.

At the same time, I am seeing sluggish behavior on MACD, indicating a weak momentum for up climb, Only exception is that there is not yet a divergence indication. 

I think it may continue to congest.

At present, its support levels are 95.85 to 137.94 should it continue its down trend. Resistance on the other hand will be at 185.56.

Fig 2 AMD weekly chart

AMD was on a down trend since 4th March 2024, which ended on 7th April 2025, and for some reason it reversed and reached a much higher peaking on 27th October 2025. It has started its decline since then.

There was a huge gap in its climb, while there was a short attempt to cover the gap, it continued upward. But the momentum was weak as compared to its retreat since 27th October 2025. 

The plunge broke right though the 8-week moving average. While it looks like it is making attempt to cover its gap this time, it is not. Its reversal happened right after it hit the 100% projection objective of 259.06.

At present, its closest support is its 38.2% retracement support at 194.81. But I feel that its decline may head further to its 55-week moving average of 161.66. At least this is the level that I am seeing.

Fig 3 Intel chart

Actually, of the three, Intel is the worst performing of all. Why?

While both AMD and Qualcom raised from the bottom during the year 2020, Intel was at the top, with a double top formation. Since then, it was on a decline until 7th April 2025, which is the minimum objective of its formation.

Unlike AMD, it failed to reach new high, furthermore, the moving average formation still maintains a downtrend indication. The only good news is that MACD continue to show divergence.

I suspect that Intel is on a bottom formation and it is yet to complete. 

For the time being, the closest support level is between 24.24 to 28.92. 

Looking at the three charts, I can't help but to wonder if this is an indication of Intel losing ground while both AMD and Qualcom is eating into its market share. In fact, Intel's technological advancement seems to be stagnant for some time, while breakthrough is seen on AMD and Qualcom. 

Nevertheless, CPU market is not Intel's only business. A lesser-known fact is that its second largest business group is its network product. But again, its performance seems to be very weak when compared to another brand in the market, Broadcom. 

While I am reluctant to analyze Broadcom chart at the moment, it's level is even higher than that of AMD ( 188.50 ) and Qualcom ( 163.30 ) at 324.85. Intel share is at 34.50. 

 The market certainly does not view Intel favorably. Intel has been cannibalizing on its former reputation as a leader in the CPU and network solution market. It may already be at the end of this market perception. Already many already been claiming of AMD Ryzen supersedes that of the Intel core due to its 6nm solution while Intel at 0.775. 

Intel really need to review its market strategy or it will slowly become irrelevant.

Signs of incompetent leaders

 Big news of the week is President Trump has again missed the Nobel peace prize. It went to another person Maria Corina Machado Parisca, a Venezuelan politician who are fighting against the dictator Nicolas Maduro Moros.

While striking a seize fire deal between Hamas and Israel is really a great feat, and his work on negotiating between Ukraine and Russia does require recognition, I believe Maria Corina Machado Parisca deserves the prize more than him, reason?

It must be strange that while I am more align towards Trump's actions, I do not agree that he deserves the prize more. Part of his intention is to value lives, that is amicable. However, part of his intention is to get the Nobel peace prize recognition, this is not a noble intention.

However, this is only a sidetrack of my entry today. I do not consider Trump to be incompetence, instead I believe that he is relentless in working for the welfare of the people of USA. 

It began with Flotilla, an organized sea incursion into Israel by a large fleet of small boats led by the moronic attention seeker Greta Thunberg. It was no surprise that they failed spectacularly, being stopped, detained and deported almost immediately.

While claiming the event for humanitarian purpose, it certainly does not serve the purpose. Instead, they managed to gather attention for themselves, Greta's speech is again being broadcasted worldwide, while the condition of the people of Gaza remained unchanged.

among the group of this Flotila are 23 members from Malaysia. I have no idea who they are, in fact, they are unheard of before this event. They became famous in Malaysia right after their detention by Israel, upon released, they claim how cruel is the Israel authority and how inhumane they were being treated, they only problem here is: they were in perfectly good condition with not even a scratch on them when they returned to Malaysia.

During their detention, the government of Malaysia led by Anwar Ibrahim was quick to voice their objection to Israel's action, claiming Israel has no right to do so even though the incursion itself violates the sovereignty of Israel and that Malaysia has not established any diplomatic relation with Israel. 

Protests were organized at the US embassy for some reason and boycott of US goods follows to "put pressure" on Israel, like Israel is part of US of A. Anwar even threaten with dire consequences to Israel should their hero not returned to them, as if they will do the same should there be illegal foreign entry to Malaysia.

Upon returned, the 23 Malaysia members of Flotilla were greeted with hero's welcome. Strong support were voiced for Hamas and Palestinians by the Malay community from the religious folks to the Malay politicians. Alternate voices to Palestinians were labelled as betrayal of Malaysia. Anwar even vow for Malaysian peace keeping force to Gaza.

Yet throughout this period, the government is going nowhere in local matters which is supposed to be they core concern. There are high level of racial unbalance within the nation, and Malaysia is still with many in poverty even though it is still an oil producing country. Not to mention, Malaysia still has a big issue with ineffective education system that fails to produce skill competency for nation building.

All these issues were sidelined by the focus on Gaza, which halfway around the world away, with its wellbeing having no influence on Malaysia future.

This reminds me of my observation on Ukraine-Russian war. How many politicians have "risked their lives" travelling on land to Kyiv to have that handshake of death with Zelensky, and then slowly faded out of the political arena. Furthermore, how anxious is the European Union led by Macron of France and Starmer of UK involved themselves in talks after talks to "support" Zelensky, all of whom later on demonstrated their total failure in their core duty, which is the wellbeing of European Union and UK.

It is not that Zelensky's hand is a curse, it is the incompetence of these leaders to start with. They can't solve their own issues on hand and attempted to redirect the attention of the people to show how "determine" they are on other people's matter.

This is the same thing with the Malaysia government. It cannot contribute to the wellbeing of its people and redirect attention to Gaza issue. The life and death of Gaza is not important, the attention of their own contribution is more important.

So, back to my hypothesis; incompetent governments help economical recovery. Is this the case for Malaysia? 

Let's look at KLSE.

Fig 1. KLSE weekly chart

My last update on KLSE was A belated happy birthday to Malaysia...or was it a little too early?. dated Sept 2024. I was of impression that KLSE was on an uptrend with resistance at 1,674 to 1,860. 

It managed to climb higher while only reaching a high of 1,640 on week of 29th September 2025, falling short of my expectation. It is now falling back to 1,612, its 61.8% projection line that it has surpassed earlier. 

In addition, I am seeing MACD in the process of crossing downward. 

KLSE is now supported by its 8-week moving average. 

I believe that KLSE is on correction as there is no indication of reversal yet. Which still means that it is heading downward, and will like be supported by it's 55-week moving average, which is now at 1,567. In between, there is another support at 1,582.

Should it be heading upward, I see resistance between 1,670 to 1,703.

It is quite obvious that the market is rising up while the government stuck in its position, it only started to fall when Ketuanan Melayu started focusing on Gaza. Sad, sad!

Interesting Nikkei behavior

Japan has a new prime minister last weekend. 

The Shigeru Ishiba resigned as the prime minister following major electoral defeats of the LDP-Komeito coalition. This followed with an LDP presidential election with Sanae Takaichi won. 

As a result, she became the first female prime minister of Japan. On appearance, Sanae Takaichi is more conservative with Japan's interest come first. Her mindset seems to be similar to that of Trump, except that she is more protectionist in area of immigration.

well, I did not take much note of it and went on minding my own business, after all, it was weekend!

It was to my surprise on Monday morning that Nikkei 225 actually opened with a 2,000 points gapped up! 

However, it only went mildly upward before deteriorating throughout the week, losing every single point gain from gap up.

It is common for a counter to try recover a gap before continuation. However, attention is really needed if the gap is fully covered, it indicates weakness in the direction. Is Nikkei in possible reversal?

Fig 1. Nikkei weekly chart

My last up-date on Nikkei was Let's have an up-date.. in April 2025. I believed at that time that Nikkei should be on continuation downward. 

Nikkei did not, reversed and even breaking the previous high. 

At present, it managed to reach the 100% projection resistance of a major move. 

I believe it is going to correct in the coming weeks, but it may not be ready for reversal just yet.

Reason?

There is not yet evidence of divergence for Nikkei on the MACD. Even though there is a potential sign of MACD crossing at this point of time, it is still in the positive zone, except that its momentum is getting weaker.

Where lies the support then?

I will use its 55-week moving average as reference for its support, which is 39,814.

Should there be break through on the upside however, I believe its 127% projection of 53,044 will be its next resistance.

• Let's do an up-date..

My condolence to Charlie Kirk

Fig 1. Charlie Kirk  

In the morning of 11th September 2025, I woke up with a disturbing news. Charlie Kirk has passed away.

I was puzzled, because I remembered that he looked to be in good health. It was quite unbelievable that he died suddenly.

It was only on further search that I realized that he was assassinated.

While I do not agree with him on religious matter, I agree with him on his other ideologies. I also admire his courage to put himself on the front ends going to many Universities debating with students.

He is not fazed with the left extremes calling him Fascist and Nazi and continues to argue bases on facts and statistics, which seems to be rare for those university students, who seems to be irrational and lacks a sane mindset. They resorted to name callings and insults and lack proper justification.

It is also through these debates that we can see how the US prestige education has fallen and if I am a hirer, I will think twice about hiring them.

The irony is that those on those who call him fascist are the ones behaving like one. They are highly intolerant alternate views, instead of making a point to further investigate, they move to silent opposing voices, to the extent that killing off the other end is a fair game.

Sadly, US is heading to such a direction. If not stop, it will result in dictatorship, and surprise, surprise, it will not come from the Republican, but the Democrats, who are lacking in competence, full of themselves, and highly insecure with the need to be in control all the time. 

Should the Democrats continue to take charge of the US government, the people of the USA will truly lose their freedom one day.

I was originally thinking of an update on the Dow since I am discussing on US matter this round. However, I just realized that the Dow was my most recent entry and it is not appropriate to go for another round.

At the same time, I believe that Hang Seng development is more interesting for the time being.

My last update on Hang Seng was in the entry Let's do an up-date.. dated 20th April 2025. I have noted then the possibility of Hang Seng in counter wave moves with resistances at between 22,227 and 24,979, it might on continuation downward thereafter.

Hang Seng broke through these 2 levels and continued upward. Has Hang Seng indeed reversed?

Fig 2. Hang Seng weekly chart

At present, I am seeing a double bottom with its neckline broken through. So the first this to do now is a measurement using Fibonacci extension based on this formation.

There are 2 resistance levels using its 61.8% and 100% extension: 27,632 and 30,775 respectively.

Using Fibonacci projection, it can be seen that Hang Seng has already broken through its 127% resistance of 25,118. The next level of resistance will be 27,946, its 161.8% projection.

At the same time, I am still in doubt that we are seeing a new bull, because its move since 21st January 2024 violates the 5-wave pattern, with lows violating the previous highs. We are still in a counter wave behavior, which is about 3 years long now (since 2023). 

Meanwhile, the MACD is showing weakness while Hang Seng is reaching new high. It looks sluggish and lacking in momentum. 

I suspect Hang Seng may still be going up, ends with a short burst before reversing downward.

I have also been checking on some Hong Kong podcasts lately. Signs are not good as it tells of closures after closures, and these are not small retails but huge local chains. Already units for rent are appearing at even shopping hot spots on Hong Kong streets.

The issue with Hong Kong is its high dependence on China market, and as China economy is entering its winter phase, the money train to Hong Kong stops. We are even seeing a reverse flow of Hong Kongers heading to China for shopping spree.

If Hong Kong is to be revived, it really needs to rethink its position to be more open. The continuation in its present direction will only worsen the future of Hong Kong.