Singapore Election is over, and I have yet to do a market reaction....

It has already been a few weeks since the Singapore Election. It was relatively a big fuzz, not because of the new leadership, but more of the Gerrymandering of election territory, in favor of the ruling party, as well as the parachuting of paper generals from the military, as well as insertion of controversial candidate from the ruling party side.

It is not the first time that Gerrymandering happens in Singapore, neither is the parachuting of the "generals".  For long, the ruling party has been using Group Representative Constituency (GRC) as a form of barrier to opposition entrance to the political arena, it started with partnership of 2 "to ensure representation of minority race". It then expanded to 4 a group claiming a better servicing of its people, but with effect of protection to ensure its new candidates can penetrate into the parliament in safety.

This is when we see generals untested in the political arena resigned from their posts and joined the ruling party, participating in election and became a member of parliament. There is little need for these candidates to fight hard through election process to demonstrate their worth to the people.

Much news is made to demonstrate the leader of the ruling party, Lawrence Wong as a people person, with much of it having him surrounded by people wherever he went. I, however, is skeptical of his leadership. What has he done for Singapore so far?

He has yet to prove himself as far as I am concern. 

Yet, is this my personal opinion of there are others who share my view?

|I still recall many years ago when Lee Kwan Yew (LKY) was still the minister mentor of the country, it went through a round of election and the market surged the Monday after the result shown that the ruling party was back in power. 

LKY came out in the news commented that the ruling party was the right party for the country, so much so that even the market agreed with the result.

Guess what? The market tumbled for 2 weeks right after, this followed by the reversal of world into a bear market.

Not that the Singapore market being a leading indicator of world market, it is not. But the market will be in euphoric mood after result release and will revert back to its general trend right after. The political effect is short term while the economic effect is long.

What's more important is what action the ruling party is taking that is important.

So is the market supporting the ruling party this round?

Fig 1. STI weekly chart

The election took place on 3rd May 2025, so we need to see the market reaction on 5th May, 2025.

The market went up, but there was no euphoria. There is no excitement this round. While the market opened gapped up in the following week, it retracted all the way back fully recovering the gap. 

This is not a very good sign.

Even though the market continued to inch up the weeks following the correction, it lacks momentum and yet to cross the previous high of 4,005 on week of 12th May 2025.

More immediately, I anticipate a continuation upward but with difficulty. I will be looking for a breakout upward which based on my experience may be sign of exhaustion before it starts its descent. I suspect the Bollinger band which is presently at 4,047 to be its resistance level.

Of course, it is also possible that the uptrend of STI is yet to complete, and it is present in a correction phrase. Since the same apply to its uptrend is fully recovered its downward gap as a result of Trump's tariff. As such I might find support of this correction at 3,690. This is also very close to its 61.8% projection support, which present coincide with its 89-week moving average.

What if it breaks its previous top and continues upward?

The most immediate resistance will be its 61.8% projection at 4,215, this followed by 4,437, which is the 100% projection.

I think the more probable scenario is still having STI stopped by its previous top or Bollinger band before it begins its next phase of descent, In the long run, it may even go further than its 100% projection. 

Why I think so?

It has to do with the MACD indication. it has been showing divergence to the uptrend of STI. I believe STI is in the early phase of decline.

What's of the Singapore's situation, then?

For quite a which I have not sense a firm leadership in the government. There seems a lack in direction. Further what more can you say about a ruling party with more focus on fixing the oppositions instead of leading the country?

The ruling party is on deterioration. Worse for Singapore is that for so many years, there is not one credible opposition that can take over the ruling party which it is failing. the people have for so long been depending on the government for stability and lacks self-initiation for improvement. The people need to learn about self-sustainability and reduce their dependency.

USD is dropping, bad for US?

My last up-date on USD with SGD was Is USD in trouble? I was adamant that USD will continue to be weakened against SGD after retreating to the moving averages, and that 1.28653 will be a point to take note of. 

Since then, it retreated as I have expected and presently reached a low of 1.28384, closing at 1.28477. this is the 61.8% projection support of a major move.

I believe USDSGD is presently at a crossroad. Will it continue to go down, or reversing back up?

Fig 1. SGD weekly chart

I believe USDSGD will continue till it reach 1.2733, the 100% projection support of a minor move. This will also coincide with the previous low of 1.27889.

Why I think so? 

Because there is not yet a signal for reversal, and the 100% projection support is the closest spot. However, there is a weakness with this hypothesis, it crosses the previous low, giving a much stronger indication of continuation.

Furthermore, the moving average alignment is more favorable with a down trend. 

I believe that it will retreat upward thereafter, and the next point to note will be 1.33215, which is the 55-week moving average, a correction should be in order and the 55-week moving average is a reliable zone to turn the USDSGD back down. 

I am still with the impression that USD will continue to retreat against SGD with the next objective at 1.23099, that will be in the long run, but it is still a little far fetch for now.

The question is: will it be bad for the US market?

The first effect will be a reduction in the purchase power of the people there, every import WILL become more expensive as a result, especially when it ties up with the US tariffs (which increases the price of imports but with immediate benefit to the US government's coffer). This will be a double whammy to its citizen.

This would probably explain why Trump's team is sweeping through cost cutting in the government sector with intention of parting some of the cost saving to the people.

On export wise, it reduces the price of US exports, it will be able to neutralize the counter tariff against the US products.

The issue here is the complexity added due to globalization, which leads to increase interdependency, increasing the cost of production. The only sector that may be least affected will be the service sector which is more IP driven and labor intensive.

What US really need now is the quality of its people, now in the direction of the so call "empathy" which drives many of its young people to irrationality. US need people with real skill, that will mean improvement in education with focus on Science and Mathematics, which is fundamental to engineering, the true building blocks of society.

It is unfortunate that US for many years moves in the wrong direction in its education system. Instead of focus building a stronger country, it intends to break it up.

What Trump is doing now is trying to reverse its trend, people will have to go through hardship before it can get better. Will the people follow Trump? 

How has the tariff affected SSEC?

In my last update on China market in SSEC reversing SO SOON? I believed that while many set up indicated an uptrend, we should be seeing a congestive correction instead of a continuation. This was mainly due to a VERY LONG downward bar. 

Indeed, it went into a congestive state even though with lower highs and lows. However, it also the trends overlapping each other. Apparently, other than the initial market shock, subsequent increment in US tariff on China was damped. 

Looking at the chart, it does bring some challenges for me to do a read on SSEC, because there are signal conflicts. Anyway, here it goes.

Fig 1. SSEC weekly chart

Since my last read, SSEC made an attempt to cover the gap, and it did. If based on what my teacher taught, it is not a good sign as it shown weakness.

What's interesting is that it is stopped by 55-, 89-, and 144-week moving average, leaving a long tail and a weak hammer bar pattern. While moving upward, it is much weaker with short bars until it is now resisted by it s8- and 21-weeek moving averages.

There is no divergence on MACD at this point of time. I feel that SSEC is not yet ready to reverse, it is more likely to move upward but continue to congest.

Should it be reversing down from here on, I see support levels between2,922 to 2,985. Crossing this however, the next support level will be 2,816 to 2,842.

On the upside on the other hand, I see Bollinger envelop resistance of 3,447. It will also be further resisted by its 61.8% projection of 3,561.

Let's do an up-date..

 I have not done this for a long time, and today I feel a little itchy because of the long weekend, I just felt like checking up on the charts.

Furthermore, I am too engrossed into 3-minute charts to the extent that I have not checked on its higher time frame. It may be a good time to have a change.

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

My last up-date on the Dow was Now that the election is over, how it's going?, at the time I estimated that the Dow will climb a little further and I was contemplating a reversal.

It climbed mildly higher before a major plunge and rise back up again. It however failed to break through its previous high and began to retreat in fear of the effect of Trump's tariff on other countries.

It managed to get support at its 144-week moving average, with this week bouncing back towards its 55-week moving average. Coincidentally, this is also the 100% extension support, which is the minimum objective of its double top formation. It is also the 61.8% retracement support level.

I do not find this very good for the Dow though, because the bars are overlapping. This indicates a congestion instead of a reversal upward. 

In addition, I am seeing false break on 22/10/2024, indicating weakness on its up trend. 

I suspect it will continue to head upward with resistance, but it's down trend is yet complete.

However, I believe that the present down trend is a minor move, because there is still no confirmation from MACD. I think we are witnessing a top formation at this point of time. 

So where are the resistances and supports?

I really do not see any indication of uptrend. however, I can base on both the 55-weeks moving average and the Bollinger envelop as a guideline. We should see resistance at between 41,135 to 45,863. 

If it moves further downward, we should see support at its 261.8% projection of 36,280. This follows by its 78.6% retracement at 35,150.

Fig 2. Nikkei weekly chart

My last update on Nikkei was even earlier in Is Japan on continuation upward?, In that article, I was adamant that Nikkei was congesting but will climb higher with major resistances ahead.

It climbed higher with much difficulty, failed to reach the resistance level of my expectation, eventually succumbed to the threat of Trump's Tariff, plunging below its 144-week moving average, also breaking through its uptrend trend line. 

However, this is not the first time Nikkei breaks its trend line, there was a false break on week of 4/8/2024. The worrying part here is that the break on week of 6/4/2025 went further than 4/8/2024, not only creating a potential double top formation, but the latest break is also challenging its neckline.

The difference between Nikkei and Dow Jones, however, is its bar formation. While Dow Jones bars overlap, Nikkei did not. It is possible that Nikkei will correct better than Dow Jones. For the time being, the more probable resistance would be its 55-week moving average at 37,265.

It is relatively tough for me to estimate the direction Nikkei, mainly because it is at a crossroad at this point of time. Nevertheless, I believe Nikkei may have more room for down trend.

The main reason is due to MACD is in the negative zone at this point of time. Furthermore, it is presently at its 61.8% projection support level, giving me the impression of continuation after its correction. It's next level of support would be 28,826.

Fig 3. Hang Seng weekly chart

My update on Hang Seng was Dark cloud covers Hang Seng. I was with impression that Hang Seng was on the way down, with support at 55-week moving average. 

It went as I predicted, reversed at the support level and reached a higher high. However, this created a formation more common to a counter wave behavior. 

Furthermore, Hang Seng has just crossed 100% projection resisted by its 127% projection level. This followed by a major gap down back to its 55-week moving average.

While it was trying to recover itself, it was again resisted by its 21-week moving average.  

While I believe that this is would be a correction, I think it is trying to cover the gap and will be in continuation downward after this.

From here on there are a few support levels, including its Bollinger envelop of 18,181, its 61.8% projection support of 14,477.

What if it goes further higher? 

ITs next level of resistance will be its 8-week moving average of 22,227 and Bollinger envelop of 24,979. 

Is USD in trouble?

 After some thought, I have decided not to push myself in updating this blog. It is becoming a routine and kind of feeling like work, and it is an uphill task to do this on a weekend.

Nevertheless, I will just have input at a slower pace. There is no point in forcing a conclusion to the trend direction when the derivative of my last entry is still in progress. Instead, I will update my blog if there is some interesting happenings, like the USD this round.

News on youtube.com (again on those focus on the moment) that people panicking due to weakening USD. The question is: is this true?

I won't go into all currency pairs, only SGD for the time being.

Fig 1. USDSGD weekly chart

My last update on this counter was Happy birthday Singapore....and what happened to you?, I have noted a continual down trend for the pair, meaning SGD to strenghten against USD.

It actually did and reached the 100% projection objective before reversing upward, crossing the 55-week moving average before going back down. So what is SGD doing?

The bars overlap each other, giving me that it remains in the congestion phase. while the bars turned green these 2 weeks, it seems weak due to short body on both bars. I suspect it will continue downward when it touches the moving average zone.

In this direction, I am seeing 2levels of support, the 61.8% of a more recent projection at 1.31428, coincidentally also the Bollinger band envelop and 61.8% retracement line (not shown).  

Crossing this level, the next level of support will be a major 61.8% projection support of 1.28653, which coincide with the more recent 100% projection.

Should USDSGD manage to resist its fall at present point, which I think is less likely due to the resistive moving average zone, I will see next level of resistances between 1.38921 to 1.42633, which is its 61.8% and 100% projection respectively. 

ELon Musk, DOGE and Telsa

I have not been keeping up with my entry on this blog for a while. It is because I really don't feel like it for quite a while.

I wanted to have an entry during new year, again I procrastinated. I am a little tired and kept thinking of taking a rest.

Lately I noticed there is a lot of happening in USA right after Trump is sworn in. He is executing his plan for USA in lighting speed. The most notable of all is having Elon Musk to lead DOGE to audit all the governmental organization, which till now is quite untouchable even to congress and past presidents.

DOGE action turned out a lot of dark secrets in the deep state demonstrating a lot of wastage. 

I feel that it is a good move as for some time I have considered USA is on a deterioration and I should witness a collapse of an empire in my lifetime.

Trump plus Musk introduces a game changer to the situation of USA. With DOGE findings, it allows Trump with justification to re-structure the government sector, eliminating the parasites of the country.

The media kept saying that Musk team dismantle departments by departments of the deep state. No, he does not. His team has no authority to such a thing. DOGE only submit the report to Trump's team and the secretary of those departments take action to cut the tumor from the government.

Then, the news about Tesla in trouble, which is why lead to my decision look into Tesla chart. Rumors claim that Tesla on free fall as Europe punishing Elon Musk for voicing their dark secrets.

Fig 1. Tesla weekly chart

Well, Tesla is moving downward. But I expect this as a correction. There is no divergence on Tela indicating a reversal from its uptrend. It is yet to break through its 21-week moving average. 

At this point of time, it is resting on its 61.8% projection support. I suspect its correction is not yet completed. it should continue to head downward to the next level, which coincide with its 55-week moving average. At the same time, this is also the 100% projection support of Tesla while its 100% extension objective of a potential double top is near.

Now that the election is over, how it's going?

 

In my entry 2 weeks ago titled US election is right around the corner..., I maintained a bearish opinion on Dow Jones while indicating the possibility of bullish surge after the election, which is a common phenomenon, I mentioned of a resistance at 44,932, Dow reached a high of 44,163 on the week of election and 44,496 this week before retreating. 

I have also mentioned in my entry that US is in a phase of distribution based on technical analysis concept. Trump's win may be able to reverse the status quo. It really depends on the will power the people to look forward instead of demanding equality of result. 

Road ahead for Trump's team is hard. At least for the time being, they are heading in the right direction, which is to tackle the deficit. Introduction of DOGE will help in reduction of overhead in the government to improve efficiency leading to cost saving. However, this indirectly means that Trump's team will be implementing austerity measure, which great for the long run, it is hard for the people in the short run. But again, will power. 

Trump does not have much time, because the measures that his team going to introduce is not going to be pleasing to the people. These will be hard measures requiring the team to bulldoze through. They in fact only have 2 years to achieve their goals instead of 4 years. Because if it is not properly managed, people will turn on them faster than they do on Biden and Kamala.

So where might Dow be heading next?

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

The bar formation these 2 weeks did not create any reversal candlestick formation. I do not see a reversal and it may be more of correction or congestion the coming week, with support likely to be between 39,456 to 42,740.

Having said that, while Dow Jones reached a higher high, its MACD did not. This leads to potential divergence indicating weakness in the Dow's climb.

Furthermore, the gradient of its latest ascension is more gradual as compared to that from the previous one. It is actually slowing down.

We may still see Dow hitting higher, though. It is in between supports and resistance levels as far as I can see. Its most immediate resistance is the 100% of its short run projection at 44,968. Crossing this will be its long run 100% projection resistance at 47,371. I believe the later will be a more likely possibility for reversal because it also coincides with the intermediate 127% projection.