Singtel

I think it is good to look at the index stock. At least it allows me to understand what the components of STI are. Even since the first time I was introduced to technical analysis and stock market, I have never thought of focussing on the index stock, probably bacause I think they are expensive and return not as great, even though they are relatively stable.

Today's counter is Singtel, although I came to regret my decision, because Singtel does not properly conform to standard technical pattern. This makes me wonder who the players are in Singtel. I know at least 1, Temasek Holdings.

It is also funny that Singtel was on the down trend since its listing in the early 90s, reversal came in 2002. The stranger part of it is that even since its reversal, it maintained a 3-wave pattern.

The most recent move since end 2008, it continued to exhibit a 3 wave pattern. So if I use the swing move to measure Singtel, it might have just completed its objective. Now if I consider the first peak in 2007 and 2013 being the second, there is a divergence in Singtel. It indicates the possibility of a down trend for this counter.

DBS

Do you know that my first time with DBS was when it was around SGD7.00? It was during 1998 that this happened and I was still very fresh to the market. In fact I shorted this counter then, convinced by one of my friend.

With nothing much to look at on the indices and that the normal stocks are all going sideways, it might be time for me to look at the blue chips. So why not start with DBS?

For the moment, it is not easy to interprete DBS, it seems to be in a continuous action of counter waves. Further more, after the "A" wave, the wave pattern seems to be in repetition. You will see 2 sets of 3-wave patterns.

 I am very doubtful that the wave pattern from 2009 till now would be a new bull wav, the reason is that the minor waves are all 3-wave patterns.

The thing is that DBS is reaching a resistance and I think it has limited up-side. The only thing to celebrate would probably be the triangle it formed with target SGD19.00.

Dow Jones is about to change direction

At least this is the way I read it. The index is reaching the upper envelop of the the reverse triangle formation. Further more, the indicators are very toppish and there would be pressure for it to descend.

The thing that I cannot figure out properly is the wave count. As the ascenssion of Dow Jones from 1,000 till 1998 makes it unclear for the wave count. I do not know if the upward wave has been completed and counter wave started. Could the wave from 1999 till 2002 be a 4th? The looks is impossible as what follows (2002 - 2007) is another counter wave (3-wave pattern).

What I am doing now is to only count the wave starting from 2009. My feeling that this is still a counter wave. A 5-wave pattern has been completed by mid 2011, then the wave went hay wired. I consider the the formation of C wave, it is possile to be a 3 wave pattern with the wave probably already completed.

I think SGX just killed the market

I was going through the local list of stocks hopefully there is something that I can write on, and you know what? There is nothing of interest at all!

The counters are all side ways and there seems to be no momentum at all.

I think the action of SGX to stamp euphoria action of the market has adverse effect and turned off the interest of the players.

Taiwan...

It was in the 90s that Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea and Singapore became the 4 young dragons of Asia. I am not sure if this is in comparison with China. As far as I know, the opening of China happened during the 90s and it was fast to absorb almost all the manufacturing opportunities of the region. I remember at that time, the news in the market that only Taiwan and Hong Kong have the capability to benefit from China. Now it seems no longer possible.

My understanding from my colleague from Taiwan painted me a different picture of how Taiwan perform. China did not help Taiwan but slowly draining it dry. While manufacturing migrated to China, it deprived  Taiwanese of their livelihood. In fact, even with coninuous innovation, Taiwan's economy continued to deteriorate.

As far as I know, the starting pay of Taiwanese Engineers is much lower than Singapore's. One reason is probably because Taiwan universities continue to mass produce Engineers from locals, Singapore wise not. If you visit Singapore's universities' Engineering department, you will be surprise how few locals there are. I understand that the average starting pay of Taiwanese Engineers are around SGD1,500 mark? Singapore at least maintain SGD2,500. Such is the sorry state of Taiwanese Engineers.

When I read the Taiwan Weigthted Index, I am surprised. Taiwan actually peaked during 1990 before it plunged, ever since then, it has never recovered to its golden year's peak. So how is it that the world continue to believe Taiwan's economical progress? I worked in a Taiwanese company during the early 2000 and as far as I know all eyes were focused on Taiwan. Electronic components companies set up their headquarters there to be close to the gold mine. Even the the migration of industries to China, Taiwan remained the IPO for the factories.

Another thing that is interesting is that Taiwan further deterioted by 2008. If you look at the chart, the drop of 2008 went further than that from 1998. It did not happen with Singapore. Is this because that Taiwan maintained a larger chunk fo its manufacturing in Taiwan during the 90s while most migrated out to China by 2008, that makes it more vulnerable?

If you look at the whole chart, you can say that Taiwan has been stagnant since 1990.

Seoul Composite Index

I was in Shen Zhen the whole of last week. This was because of a company activity that involves an international gathering of sales, marketing and field application. To be honest, there are 360 of us and the money spent I understand is A LOT, base on my estimation, it would be about SGD 1Mil, and that is for a week's of interaction.

But it wasn't fun, it was intense. With almost endless meetings and the need for private discussion with individuals, alignments between sections. I am actually amazed I handled it well. I am also surprised how tiring it was, I came back on Saturday and slept almost the whole of Sunday.

Anyway, been away from this blog for a week and I am struggling to charge up again. So I am going for an easy one. Seoul Composite Index.

Actually, there is not much in Seoul Composite index, except that I am seeing counter wave in action. There is no pattern to determine its magnitude, the only thing left I can see is the wave count. If I use the swing move measurement, Seoul Composite Index would be going to 1,440.