How has the tariff affected SSEC?

In my last update on China market in SSEC reversing SO SOON? I believed that while many set up indicated an uptrend, we should be seeing a congestive correction instead of a continuation. This was mainly due to a VERY LONG downward bar. 

Indeed, it went into a congestive state even though with lower highs and lows. However, it also the trends overlapping each other. Apparently, other than the initial market shock, subsequent increment in US tariff on China was damped. 

Looking at the chart, it does bring some challenges for me to do a read on SSEC, because there are signal conflicts. Anyway, here it goes.

Fig 1. SSEC weekly chart

Since my last read, SSEC made an attempt to cover the gap, and it did. If based on what my teacher taught, it is not a good sign as it shown weakness.

What's interesting is that it is stopped by 55-, 89-, and 144-week moving average, leaving a long tail and a weak hammer bar pattern. While moving upward, it is much weaker with short bars until it is now resisted by it s8- and 21-weeek moving averages.

There is no divergence on MACD at this point of time. I feel that SSEC is not yet ready to reverse, it is more likely to move upward but continue to congest.

Should it be reversing down from here on, I see support levels between2,922 to 2,985. Crossing this however, the next support level will be 2,816 to 2,842.

On the upside on the other hand, I see Bollinger envelop resistance of 3,447. It will also be further resisted by its 61.8% projection of 3,561.

Let's do an up-date..

 I have not done this for a long time, and today I feel a little itchy because of the long weekend, I just felt like checking up on the charts.

Furthermore, I am too engrossed into 3-minute charts to the extent that I have not checked on its higher time frame. It may be a good time to have a change.

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

My last up-date on the Dow was Now that the election is over, how it's going?, at the time I estimated that the Dow will climb a little further and I was contemplating a reversal.

It climbed mildly higher before a major plunge and rise back up again. It however failed to break through its previous high and began to retreat in fear of the effect of Trump's tariff on other countries.

It managed to get support at its 144-week moving average, with this week bouncing back towards its 55-week moving average. Coincidentally, this is also the 100% extension support, which is the minimum objective of its double top formation. It is also the 61.8% retracement support level.

I do not find this very good for the Dow though, because the bars are overlapping. This indicates a congestion instead of a reversal upward. 

In addition, I am seeing false break on 22/10/2024, indicating weakness on its up trend. 

I suspect it will continue to head upward with resistance, but it's down trend is yet complete.

However, I believe that the present down trend is a minor move, because there is still no confirmation from MACD. I think we are witnessing a top formation at this point of time. 

So where are the resistances and supports?

I really do not see any indication of uptrend. however, I can base on both the 55-weeks moving average and the Bollinger envelop as a guideline. We should see resistance at between 41,135 to 45,863. 

If it moves further downward, we should see support at its 261.8% projection of 36,280. This follows by its 78.6% retracement at 35,150.

Fig 2. Nikkei weekly chart

My last update on Nikkei was even earlier in Is Japan on continuation upward?, In that article, I was adamant that Nikkei was congesting but will climb higher with major resistances ahead.

It climbed higher with much difficulty, failed to reach the resistance level of my expectation, eventually succumbed to the threat of Trump's Tariff, plunging below its 144-week moving average, also breaking through its uptrend trend line. 

However, this is not the first time Nikkei breaks its trend line, there was a false break on week of 4/8/2024. The worrying part here is that the break on week of 6/4/2025 went further than 4/8/2024, not only creating a potential double top formation, but the latest break is also challenging its neckline.

The difference between Nikkei and Dow Jones, however, is its bar formation. While Dow Jones bars overlap, Nikkei did not. It is possible that Nikkei will correct better than Dow Jones. For the time being, the more probable resistance would be its 55-week moving average at 37,265.

It is relatively tough for me to estimate the direction Nikkei, mainly because it is at a crossroad at this point of time. Nevertheless, I believe Nikkei may have more room for down trend.

The main reason is due to MACD is in the negative zone at this point of time. Furthermore, it is presently at its 61.8% projection support level, giving me the impression of continuation after its correction. It's next level of support would be 28,826.

Fig 3. Hang Seng weekly chart

My update on Hang Seng was Dark cloud covers Hang Seng. I was with impression that Hang Seng was on the way down, with support at 55-week moving average. 

It went as I predicted, reversed at the support level and reached a higher high. However, this created a formation more common to a counter wave behavior. 

Furthermore, Hang Seng has just crossed 100% projection resisted by its 127% projection level. This followed by a major gap down back to its 55-week moving average.

While it was trying to recover itself, it was again resisted by its 21-week moving average.  

While I believe that this is would be a correction, I think it is trying to cover the gap and will be in continuation downward after this.

From here on there are a few support levels, including its Bollinger envelop of 18,181, its 61.8% projection support of 14,477.

What if it goes further higher? 

ITs next level of resistance will be its 8-week moving average of 22,227 and Bollinger envelop of 24,979.