A Bitcoin up-date: Is it reversing?

It was some time ago when I did an entry on Bitcoin titled What is happening to Bitcoin? in August 2022. A lot happened in the crypto arena magnified by the FTX scandal. 

At one point, I wanted to come out wiht a piece of article on crypto as I see it as a con job, the article turned out to spread so wide especially evidence of scandals are so wide spread including FTX, One Coin and the sketchy origin of Bitcoin itself. 

So much so that I gave up working on the article.

Stock for instance, gives you a portion to the company; indices derive from the stock price of a basket of companies listed in the stock market; forex is an exchange of currencies; commodities from the trade of materials.

But what backs the crypto? Nothing. In fact, the FTX scandal demonstrates that you can create a crypto for trade out of nothing. It is upto the creator to decide what price he wants to give.

It is also interesting that the crypto world was once viewed as the next BIG thing to replace existing currencies controlled by the world governments. Even the trading platform I use once with ability to trade crypto currencies, the group has since been removed.  

Fig 1. BTC-USD weekly chart

Since my last up-date, Bitcoin went on to a new low. At the same time, its descent does not come with the momentum to push it forward and gradient of descent is gradual.

During more recent weeks, it started climbing upward, only to congest again during the last 2 weeks.

The downside readings remain unchanged, with a double top formation having support between 6,664 to -7,075. Using zig zag pattern on the downtrend, the projection provides support at between 12,481 to 26,082, the later level which coincide with the present level of the Bollinger band envelop with the higher-level moving averages (55-, 89, and 144-week moving averages) nearby. this seems to be the possible resistance to stop Bitcoin at the neckline at 28,893, like what I have mentioned in my earlier entry (one of the possibilities).

Furthermore, with the steepness of the descent in 2022, it is also possible that Bitcoin to congest in a narrow band for a longer period of time, before it's further decline.

What is happening to Bitcoin?

 I am going on a journey tomorrow. It is going to be a surprise visit to my parents place with my daughter. I told them that I am only going back on a much later date for my father's doctor's visit. 

Just a lesson to those who are not in sales and marketing. This is called " under promise, over deliver". It is a very useful trick.

Anyway, there is not going to be any trading in the coming few days.

Now let's move on to Bitcoin. I was watching the mid day news when I saw a reporting on the tumbling of the markets due to Powell's speech, the news placed some emphasis on Bitcoin holding on to around 20,000 mark.

Bitcoin was actually a great hit when it came out and many trainers in investment courses were very positive about this counter. they all feel that it is going to the next form of currency replacing the existing form of currency. That was 2017, this was after it reached and retreated from a high of 20,089 in 2017. 

Even the platform I am doing my trading on once housed Bitcoin and few other crypto-currencies, I am not sure when but it later have all crypto-currencies removed. 

Why I got interested in Bitcoin today? The news segment placed Bitcoin line chart on its background.

To be honest, I am neither shock or surprised by what I saw,  I have no interest in the counter since I have no venue in trading it, further more, I always consider it to be too high of a value for trade, I am a little taken aback when I noted its peak at 68,789.

Fig 1. Bitcoin Weekly Chart

Without referencing to Bitcoin, for those who with experience in charting will be familiar with the double top formation in this chart. Moreover, I am seeing the 55-week moving average crossing 89-week. 

This is very bad for Bitcoin.

Using simplest form of double top measurement, the minimum objective is sub-zero! 

Yes, I am indeed surprised, but in came after I received a negative number for Fibonacci expansion after I have entered all necessary values.

Based on the expansion, The objectives are between 6,664 to -7,075. Could this be possible? So I get paid to hold on to Bitcoin and I have to pay to sell?

It happened on Crude oil before, so it is plausible.

Let's be a little more optimistic, Let's use projection for measurement instead.

As long as projection is concern, it has reached the 100% (32,820) and even crossed the 127% (23,036) level that I normally used. The next level of support is 161.8% projection at 10,591.

Looking at its set up during the recent weeks, I say that there are more possible downside. Using projection again, the support levels are 16,148 to 10,594.

What is the upside? To be honest, I have not seen any possible signal so far, I am not sure if it is because I am bias? 

Well, if I am to imagine, it is possible that Bitcoin going to correct back to the neckline, which is around 28,893. Where was a minor congestion here before, so it may go back there. Best scenario would be going back to touch the 55-week moving average presently at 33,471.