Signs of incompetent leaders

 Big news of the week is President Trump has again missed the Nobel peace prize. It went to another person Maria Corina Machado Parisca, a Venezuelan politician who are fighting against the dictator Nicolas Maduro Moros.

While striking a seize fire deal between Hamas and Israel is really a great feat, and his work on negotiating between Ukraine and Russia does require recognition, I believe Maria Corina Machado Parisca deserves the prize more than him, reason?

It must be strange that while I am more align towards Trump's actions, I do not agree that he deserves the prize more. Part of his intention is to value lives, that is amicable. However, part of his intention is to get the Nobel peace prize recognition, this is not a noble intention.

However, this is only a sidetrack of my entry today. I do not consider Trump to be incompetence, instead I believe that he is relentless in working for the welfare of the people of USA. 

It began with Flotilla, an organized sea incursion into Israel by a large fleet of small boats led by the moronic attention seeker Greta Thunberg. It was no surprise that they failed spectacularly, being stopped, detained and deported almost immediately.

While claiming the event for humanitarian purpose, it certainly does not serve the purpose. Instead, they managed to gather attention for themselves, Greta's speech is again being broadcasted worldwide, while the condition of the people of Gaza remained unchanged.

among the group of this Flotila are 23 members from Malaysia. I have no idea who they are, in fact, they are unheard of before this event. They became famous in Malaysia right after their detention by Israel, upon released, they claim how cruel is the Israel authority and how inhumane they were being treated, they only problem here is: they were in perfectly good condition with not even a scratch on them when they returned to Malaysia.

During their detention, the government of Malaysia led by Anwar Ibrahim was quick to voice their objection to Israel's action, claiming Israel has no right to do so even though the incursion itself violates the sovereignty of Israel and that Malaysia has not established any diplomatic relation with Israel. 

Protests were organized at the US embassy for some reason and boycott of US goods follows to "put pressure" on Israel, like Israel is part of US of A. Anwar even threaten with dire consequences to Israel should their hero not returned to them, as if they will do the same should there be illegal foreign entry to Malaysia.

Upon returned, the 23 Malaysia members of Flotilla were greeted with hero's welcome. Strong support were voiced for Hamas and Palestinians by the Malay community from the religious folks to the Malay politicians. Alternate voices to Palestinians were labelled as betrayal of Malaysia. Anwar even vow for Malaysian peace keeping force to Gaza.

Yet throughout this period, the government is going nowhere in local matters which is supposed to be they core concern. There are high level of racial unbalance within the nation, and Malaysia is still with many in poverty even though it is still an oil producing country. Not to mention, Malaysia still has a big issue with ineffective education system that fails to produce skill competency for nation building.

All these issues were sidelined by the focus on Gaza, which halfway around the world away, with its wellbeing having no influence on Malaysia future.

This reminds me of my observation on Ukraine-Russian war. How many politicians have "risked their lives" travelling on land to Kyiv to have that handshake of death with Zelensky, and then slowly faded out of the political arena. Furthermore, how anxious is the European Union led by Macron of France and Starmer of UK involved themselves in talks after talks to "support" Zelensky, all of whom later on demonstrated their total failure in their core duty, which is the wellbeing of European Union and UK.

It is not that Zelensky's hand is a curse, it is the incompetence of these leaders to start with. They can't solve their own issues on hand and attempted to redirect the attention of the people to show how "determine" they are on other people's matter.

This is the same thing with the Malaysia government. It cannot contribute to the wellbeing of its people and redirect attention to Gaza issue. The life and death of Gaza is not important, the attention of their own contribution is more important.

So, back to my hypothesis; incompetent governments help economical recovery. Is this the case for Malaysia? 

Let's look at KLSE.

Fig 1. KLSE weekly chart

My last update on KLSE was A belated happy birthday to Malaysia...or was it a little too early?. dated Sept 2024. I was of impression that KLSE was on an uptrend with resistance at 1,674 to 1,860. 

It managed to climb higher while only reaching a high of 1,640 on week of 29th September 2025, falling short of my expectation. It is now falling back to 1,612, its 61.8% projection line that it has surpassed earlier. 

In addition, I am seeing MACD in the process of crossing downward. 

KLSE is now supported by its 8-week moving average. 

I believe that KLSE is on correction as there is no indication of reversal yet. Which still means that it is heading downward, and will like be supported by it's 55-week moving average, which is now at 1,567. In between, there is another support at 1,582.

Should it be heading upward, I see resistance between 1,670 to 1,703.

It is quite obvious that the market is rising up while the government stuck in its position, it only started to fall when Ketuanan Melayu started focusing on Gaza. Sad, sad!

Interesting Nikkei behavior

Japan has a new prime minister last weekend. 

The Shigeru Ishiba resigned as the prime minister following major electoral defeats of the LDP-Komeito coalition. This followed with an LDP presidential election with Sanae Takaichi won. 

As a result, she became the first female prime minister of Japan. On appearance, Sanae Takaichi is more conservative with Japan's interest come first. Her mindset seems to be similar to that of Trump, except that she is more protectionist in area of immigration.

well, I did not take much note of it and went on minding my own business, after all, it was weekend!

It was to my surprise on Monday morning that Nikkei 225 actually opened with a 2,000 points gapped up! 

However, it only went mildly upward before deteriorating throughout the week, losing every single point gain from gap up.

It is common for a counter to try recover a gap before continuation. However, attention is really needed if the gap is fully covered, it indicates weakness in the direction. Is Nikkei in possible reversal?

Fig 1. Nikkei weekly chart

My last up-date on Nikkei was Let's have an up-date.. in April 2025. I believed at that time that Nikkei should be on continuation downward. 

Nikkei did not, reversed and even breaking the previous high. 

At present, it managed to reach the 100% projection resistance of a major move. 

I believe it is going to correct in the coming weeks, but it may not be ready for reversal just yet.

Reason?

There is not yet evidence of divergence for Nikkei on the MACD. Even though there is a potential sign of MACD crossing at this point of time, it is still in the positive zone, except that its momentum is getting weaker.

Where lies the support then?

I will use its 55-week moving average as reference for its support, which is 39,814.

Should there be break through on the upside however, I believe its 127% projection of 53,044 will be its next resistance.

• Let's do an up-date..

My condolence to Charlie Kirk

Fig 1. Charlie Kirk  

In the morning of 11th September 2025, I woke up with a disturbing news. Charlie Kirk has passed away.

I was puzzled, because I remembered that he looked to be in good health. It was quite unbelievable that he died suddenly.

It was only on further search that I realized that he was assassinated.

While I do not agree with him on religious matter, I agree with him on his other ideologies. I also admire his courage to put himself on the front ends going to many Universities debating with students.

He is not fazed with the left extremes calling him Fascist and Nazi and continues to argue bases on facts and statistics, which seems to be rare for those university students, who seems to be irrational and lacks a sane mindset. They resorted to name callings and insults and lack proper justification.

It is also through these debates that we can see how the US prestige education has fallen and if I am a hirer, I will think twice about hiring them.

The irony is that those on those who call him fascist are the ones behaving like one. They are highly intolerant alternate views, instead of making a point to further investigate, they move to silent opposing voices, to the extent that killing off the other end is a fair game.

Sadly, US is heading to such a direction. If not stop, it will result in dictatorship, and surprise, surprise, it will not come from the Republican, but the Democrats, who are lacking in competence, full of themselves, and highly insecure with the need to be in control all the time. 

Should the Democrats continue to take charge of the US government, the people of the USA will truly lose their freedom one day.

I was originally thinking of an update on the Dow since I am discussing on US matter this round. However, I just realized that the Dow was my most recent entry and it is not appropriate to go for another round.

At the same time, I believe that Hang Seng development is more interesting for the time being.

My last update on Hang Seng was in the entry Let's do an up-date.. dated 20th April 2025. I have noted then the possibility of Hang Seng in counter wave moves with resistances at between 22,227 and 24,979, it might on continuation downward thereafter.

Hang Seng broke through these 2 levels and continued upward. Has Hang Seng indeed reversed?

Fig 2. Hang Seng weekly chart

At present, I am seeing a double bottom with its neckline broken through. So the first this to do now is a measurement using Fibonacci extension based on this formation.

There are 2 resistance levels using its 61.8% and 100% extension: 27,632 and 30,775 respectively.

Using Fibonacci projection, it can be seen that Hang Seng has already broken through its 127% resistance of 25,118. The next level of resistance will be 27,946, its 161.8% projection.

At the same time, I am still in doubt that we are seeing a new bull, because its move since 21st January 2024 violates the 5-wave pattern, with lows violating the previous highs. We are still in a counter wave behavior, which is about 3 years long now (since 2023). 

Meanwhile, the MACD is showing weakness while Hang Seng is reaching new high. It looks sluggish and lacking in momentum. 

I suspect Hang Seng may still be going up, ends with a short burst before reversing downward.

I have also been checking on some Hong Kong podcasts lately. Signs are not good as it tells of closures after closures, and these are not small retails but huge local chains. Already units for rent are appearing at even shopping hot spots on Hong Kong streets.

The issue with Hong Kong is its high dependence on China market, and as China economy is entering its winter phase, the money train to Hong Kong stops. We are even seeing a reverse flow of Hong Kongers heading to China for shopping spree.

If Hong Kong is to be revived, it really needs to rethink its position to be more open. The continuation in its present direction will only worsen the future of Hong Kong.

Is the US market out of the wood?

 This week we witness President Putin landing on US soil, meeting with President Trump, initiating dialogue and hopefully an improvement of ties between the 2 countries.

Over the market, Dow Jones reversed upward on support of 8-week moving average. It also mildly broke through the previous high. The issue here is that Dow Jones is trying to breakthrough the 61.8% of a major projection. It is possible at this moment that it is going to happen. 

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

However, the climb this time is with a more gradual gradient, it indicates a weakening in momentum. The drop earlier, however, was much steeper.

I believe it will continue its uptrend, but it will be with difficulties.

There is also divergence on MACD, for every higher low on Dow Jones, the lows on MACD are lower. However, I have yet to see lower highs for confirmation.

After the major 61.8% projection, we should see further resistances at between 47,466 to 49,039. however, I think a more prudent level will be 52,688. which coincides with 127% level of major and minor projection.

Trump's tariffs definitely increase the revenue to the government. Its policies in cost cutting over all government agencies as well as its tackling on illegal immigrants enable further savings on unnecessary items. 

However, tariff is a double-edged sword, it will definitely lead to inflation. What Trumps administration needs to do here is to increase value employment and income increment. His policies on localized supply enablement definitely help secure jobs for the people.

Tariff also results in protectionism. In the short run, the country will see positive result in the economy. In the long run however, it will lead to weakening in local competitiveness due to dependency of such protectionism.

Is Wing Tai Properties going bankrupt?

I was off blogging for a while to focus on other things in my life. I was surprised when I saw over a thousand visits on my blog when I came back this week.

My last blog was on Singapore election, so I figure that people visiting for this. I was even more surprised when to see a viewer went to check out my article on Wing Tai Properties, titled Wing Tai Triangle dated 24th Nov 2009. 

This was donkey years ago, but it made me wonder why the person wanted to check out this article. Is something happening to Wing Tai?

Wing Tai was at around SGD1.70 at the time, it was one of the more powerful companies in Singapore, primarily because it was dealing with properties. 

I still remember one of my lecturers in Graduate Diploma on Business Administration shared about a job interview at Wing Tai. He was actually interviewed by the president of the company.

It was like a cordial chat and during the process, the secretary walked in with a report. The president took one look, showed it to him and asked him what he thought about the issue how he might handle the situation, which he answered. Eventually he got the job.

Fig 1. Wing Tai Properties weekly chart

It was to my surprised when I opened the chart on Wing Tai today. Gone were the days when Wing Tai was one of the stronghold of Singapore. Its highest point this round was 0.693in 2018, when its descent has begun, and it has never recovered until now.

It actually closed at 0.152 this week!

Unfortunately, I am not seeing much sign of reversal at this point of time, it has yet to reach its 100% projection objective at 0.1183. Nevertheless, I believe that Wing Tai should be heading back up to 0.1849, its 55-week moving average.

At its worst, it is possible that Wing Tai might proceed further to its 127% projection support level, which is 0.015.

I am really speechless to see an once giant dropped to such a low level. If it heads for the 127% projection point, it will be a point of no return, remind me of the math problem I mentioned in The sad state of Credit Suisse, which the entity stuck at its bottom.

There is a remedy though, which is a change of leadership, resulting in a different direction for Wing Tai, other wise, Wing Tai should prepare for shut down, permanantly.

Singapore Election is over, and I have yet to do a market reaction....

It has already been a few weeks since the Singapore Election. It was relatively a big fuzz, not because of the new leadership, but more of the Gerrymandering of election territory, in favor of the ruling party, as well as the parachuting of paper generals from the military, as well as insertion of controversial candidate from the ruling party side.

It is not the first time that Gerrymandering happens in Singapore, neither is the parachuting of the "generals".  For long, the ruling party has been using Group Representative Constituency (GRC) as a form of barrier to opposition entrance to the political arena, it started with partnership of 2 "to ensure representation of minority race". It then expanded to 4 a group claiming a better servicing of its people, but with effect of protection to ensure its new candidates can penetrate into the parliament in safety.

This is when we see generals untested in the political arena resigned from their posts and joined the ruling party, participating in election and became a member of parliament. There is little need for these candidates to fight hard through election process to demonstrate their worth to the people.

Much news is made to demonstrate the leader of the ruling party, Lawrence Wong as a people person, with much of it having him surrounded by people wherever he went. I, however, is skeptical of his leadership. What has he done for Singapore so far?

He has yet to prove himself as far as I am concern. 

Yet, is this my personal opinion of there are others who share my view?

|I still recall many years ago when Lee Kwan Yew (LKY) was still the minister mentor of the country, it went through a round of election and the market surged the Monday after the result shown that the ruling party was back in power. 

LKY came out in the news commented that the ruling party was the right party for the country, so much so that even the market agreed with the result.

Guess what? The market tumbled for 2 weeks right after, this followed by the reversal of world into a bear market.

Not that the Singapore market being a leading indicator of world market, it is not. But the market will be in euphoric mood after result release and will revert back to its general trend right after. The political effect is short term while the economic effect is long.

What's more important is what action the ruling party is taking that is important.

So is the market supporting the ruling party this round?

Fig 1. STI weekly chart

The election took place on 3rd May 2025, so we need to see the market reaction on 5th May, 2025.

The market went up, but there was no euphoria. There is no excitement this round. While the market opened gapped up in the following week, it retracted all the way back fully recovering the gap. 

This is not a very good sign.

Even though the market continued to inch up the weeks following the correction, it lacks momentum and yet to cross the previous high of 4,005 on week of 12th May 2025.

More immediately, I anticipate a continuation upward but with difficulty. I will be looking for a breakout upward which based on my experience may be sign of exhaustion before it starts its descent. I suspect the Bollinger band which is presently at 4,047 to be its resistance level.

Of course, it is also possible that the uptrend of STI is yet to complete, and it is present in a correction phrase. Since the same apply to its uptrend is fully recovered its downward gap as a result of Trump's tariff. As such I might find support of this correction at 3,690. This is also very close to its 61.8% projection support, which present coincide with its 89-week moving average.

What if it breaks its previous top and continues upward?

The most immediate resistance will be its 61.8% projection at 4,215, this followed by 4,437, which is the 100% projection.

I think the more probable scenario is still having STI stopped by its previous top or Bollinger band before it begins its next phase of descent, In the long run, it may even go further than its 100% projection. 

Why I think so?

It has to do with the MACD indication. it has been showing divergence to the uptrend of STI. I believe STI is in the early phase of decline.

What's of the Singapore's situation, then?

For quite a which I have not sense a firm leadership in the government. There seems a lack in direction. Further what more can you say about a ruling party with more focus on fixing the oppositions instead of leading the country?

The ruling party is on deterioration. Worse for Singapore is that for so many years, there is not one credible opposition that can take over the ruling party which it is failing. the people have for so long been depending on the government for stability and lacks self-initiation for improvement. The people need to learn about self-sustainability and reduce their dependency.

USD is dropping, bad for US?

My last up-date on USD with SGD was Is USD in trouble? I was adamant that USD will continue to be weakened against SGD after retreating to the moving averages, and that 1.28653 will be a point to take note of. 

Since then, it retreated as I have expected and presently reached a low of 1.28384, closing at 1.28477. this is the 61.8% projection support of a major move.

I believe USDSGD is presently at a crossroad. Will it continue to go down, or reversing back up?

Fig 1. SGD weekly chart

I believe USDSGD will continue till it reach 1.2733, the 100% projection support of a minor move. This will also coincide with the previous low of 1.27889.

Why I think so? 

Because there is not yet a signal for reversal, and the 100% projection support is the closest spot. However, there is a weakness with this hypothesis, it crosses the previous low, giving a much stronger indication of continuation.

Furthermore, the moving average alignment is more favorable with a down trend. 

I believe that it will retreat upward thereafter, and the next point to note will be 1.33215, which is the 55-week moving average, a correction should be in order and the 55-week moving average is a reliable zone to turn the USDSGD back down. 

I am still with the impression that USD will continue to retreat against SGD with the next objective at 1.23099, that will be in the long run, but it is still a little far fetch for now.

The question is: will it be bad for the US market?

The first effect will be a reduction in the purchase power of the people there, every import WILL become more expensive as a result, especially when it ties up with the US tariffs (which increases the price of imports but with immediate benefit to the US government's coffer). This will be a double whammy to its citizen.

This would probably explain why Trump's team is sweeping through cost cutting in the government sector with intention of parting some of the cost saving to the people.

On export wise, it reduces the price of US exports, it will be able to neutralize the counter tariff against the US products.

The issue here is the complexity added due to globalization, which leads to increase interdependency, increasing the cost of production. The only sector that may be least affected will be the service sector which is more IP driven and labor intensive.

What US really need now is the quality of its people, now in the direction of the so call "empathy" which drives many of its young people to irrationality. US need people with real skill, that will mean improvement in education with focus on Science and Mathematics, which is fundamental to engineering, the true building blocks of society.

It is unfortunate that US for many years moves in the wrong direction in its education system. Instead of focus building a stronger country, it intends to break it up.

What Trump is doing now is trying to reverse its trend, people will have to go through hardship before it can get better. Will the people follow Trump?