How has the tariff affected SSEC?

In my last update on China market in SSEC reversing SO SOON? I believed that while many set up indicated an uptrend, we should be seeing a congestive correction instead of a continuation. This was mainly due to a VERY LONG downward bar. 

Indeed, it went into a congestive state even though with lower highs and lows. However, it also the trends overlapping each other. Apparently, other than the initial market shock, subsequent increment in US tariff on China was damped. 

Looking at the chart, it does bring some challenges for me to do a read on SSEC, because there are signal conflicts. Anyway, here it goes.

Fig 1. SSEC weekly chart

Since my last read, SSEC made an attempt to cover the gap, and it did. If based on what my teacher taught, it is not a good sign as it shown weakness.

What's interesting is that it is stopped by 55-, 89-, and 144-week moving average, leaving a long tail and a weak hammer bar pattern. While moving upward, it is much weaker with short bars until it is now resisted by it s8- and 21-weeek moving averages.

There is no divergence on MACD at this point of time. I feel that SSEC is not yet ready to reverse, it is more likely to move upward but continue to congest.

Should it be reversing down from here on, I see support levels between2,922 to 2,985. Crossing this however, the next support level will be 2,816 to 2,842.

On the upside on the other hand, I see Bollinger envelop resistance of 3,447. It will also be further resisted by its 61.8% projection of 3,561.

Let's do an up-date..

 I have not done this for a long time, and today I feel a little itchy because of the long weekend, I just felt like checking up on the charts.

Furthermore, I am too engrossed into 3-minute charts to the extent that I have not checked on its higher time frame. It may be a good time to have a change.

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

My last up-date on the Dow was Now that the election is over, how it's going?, at the time I estimated that the Dow will climb a little further and I was contemplating a reversal.

It climbed mildly higher before a major plunge and rise back up again. It however failed to break through its previous high and began to retreat in fear of the effect of Trump's tariff on other countries.

It managed to get support at its 144-week moving average, with this week bouncing back towards its 55-week moving average. Coincidentally, this is also the 100% extension support, which is the minimum objective of its double top formation. It is also the 61.8% retracement support level.

I do not find this very good for the Dow though, because the bars are overlapping. This indicates a congestion instead of a reversal upward. 

In addition, I am seeing false break on 22/10/2024, indicating weakness on its up trend. 

I suspect it will continue to head upward with resistance, but it's down trend is yet complete.

However, I believe that the present down trend is a minor move, because there is still no confirmation from MACD. I think we are witnessing a top formation at this point of time. 

So where are the resistances and supports?

I really do not see any indication of uptrend. however, I can base on both the 55-weeks moving average and the Bollinger envelop as a guideline. We should see resistance at between 41,135 to 45,863. 

If it moves further downward, we should see support at its 261.8% projection of 36,280. This follows by its 78.6% retracement at 35,150.

Fig 2. Nikkei weekly chart

My last update on Nikkei was even earlier in Is Japan on continuation upward?, In that article, I was adamant that Nikkei was congesting but will climb higher with major resistances ahead.

It climbed higher with much difficulty, failed to reach the resistance level of my expectation, eventually succumbed to the threat of Trump's Tariff, plunging below its 144-week moving average, also breaking through its uptrend trend line. 

However, this is not the first time Nikkei breaks its trend line, there was a false break on week of 4/8/2024. The worrying part here is that the break on week of 6/4/2025 went further than 4/8/2024, not only creating a potential double top formation, but the latest break is also challenging its neckline.

The difference between Nikkei and Dow Jones, however, is its bar formation. While Dow Jones bars overlap, Nikkei did not. It is possible that Nikkei will correct better than Dow Jones. For the time being, the more probable resistance would be its 55-week moving average at 37,265.

It is relatively tough for me to estimate the direction Nikkei, mainly because it is at a crossroad at this point of time. Nevertheless, I believe Nikkei may have more room for down trend.

The main reason is due to MACD is in the negative zone at this point of time. Furthermore, it is presently at its 61.8% projection support level, giving me the impression of continuation after its correction. It's next level of support would be 28,826.

Fig 3. Hang Seng weekly chart

My update on Hang Seng was Dark cloud covers Hang Seng. I was with impression that Hang Seng was on the way down, with support at 55-week moving average. 

It went as I predicted, reversed at the support level and reached a higher high. However, this created a formation more common to a counter wave behavior. 

Furthermore, Hang Seng has just crossed 100% projection resisted by its 127% projection level. This followed by a major gap down back to its 55-week moving average.

While it was trying to recover itself, it was again resisted by its 21-week moving average.  

While I believe that this is would be a correction, I think it is trying to cover the gap and will be in continuation downward after this.

From here on there are a few support levels, including its Bollinger envelop of 18,181, its 61.8% projection support of 14,477.

What if it goes further higher? 

ITs next level of resistance will be its 8-week moving average of 22,227 and Bollinger envelop of 24,979. 

Is USD in trouble?

 After some thought, I have decided not to push myself in updating this blog. It is becoming a routine and kind of feeling like work, and it is an uphill task to do this on a weekend.

Nevertheless, I will just have input at a slower pace. There is no point in forcing a conclusion to the trend direction when the derivative of my last entry is still in progress. Instead, I will update my blog if there is some interesting happenings, like the USD this round.

News on youtube.com (again on those focus on the moment) that people panicking due to weakening USD. The question is: is this true?

I won't go into all currency pairs, only SGD for the time being.

Fig 1. USDSGD weekly chart

My last update on this counter was Happy birthday Singapore....and what happened to you?, I have noted a continual down trend for the pair, meaning SGD to strenghten against USD.

It actually did and reached the 100% projection objective before reversing upward, crossing the 55-week moving average before going back down. So what is SGD doing?

The bars overlap each other, giving me that it remains in the congestion phase. while the bars turned green these 2 weeks, it seems weak due to short body on both bars. I suspect it will continue downward when it touches the moving average zone.

In this direction, I am seeing 2levels of support, the 61.8% of a more recent projection at 1.31428, coincidentally also the Bollinger band envelop and 61.8% retracement line (not shown).  

Crossing this level, the next level of support will be a major 61.8% projection support of 1.28653, which coincide with the more recent 100% projection.

Should USDSGD manage to resist its fall at present point, which I think is less likely due to the resistive moving average zone, I will see next level of resistances between 1.38921 to 1.42633, which is its 61.8% and 100% projection respectively. 

ELon Musk, DOGE and Telsa

I have not been keeping up with my entry on this blog for a while. It is because I really don't feel like it for quite a while.

I wanted to have an entry during new year, again I procrastinated. I am a little tired and kept thinking of taking a rest.

Lately I noticed there is a lot of happening in USA right after Trump is sworn in. He is executing his plan for USA in lighting speed. The most notable of all is having Elon Musk to lead DOGE to audit all the governmental organization, which till now is quite untouchable even to congress and past presidents.

DOGE action turned out a lot of dark secrets in the deep state demonstrating a lot of wastage. 

I feel that it is a good move as for some time I have considered USA is on a deterioration and I should witness a collapse of an empire in my lifetime.

Trump plus Musk introduces a game changer to the situation of USA. With DOGE findings, it allows Trump with justification to re-structure the government sector, eliminating the parasites of the country.

The media kept saying that Musk team dismantle departments by departments of the deep state. No, he does not. His team has no authority to such a thing. DOGE only submit the report to Trump's team and the secretary of those departments take action to cut the tumor from the government.

Then, the news about Tesla in trouble, which is why lead to my decision look into Tesla chart. Rumors claim that Tesla on free fall as Europe punishing Elon Musk for voicing their dark secrets.

Fig 1. Tesla weekly chart

Well, Tesla is moving downward. But I expect this as a correction. There is no divergence on Tela indicating a reversal from its uptrend. It is yet to break through its 21-week moving average. 

At this point of time, it is resting on its 61.8% projection support. I suspect its correction is not yet completed. it should continue to head downward to the next level, which coincide with its 55-week moving average. At the same time, this is also the 100% projection support of Tesla while its 100% extension objective of a potential double top is near.

Now that the election is over, how it's going?

 

In my entry 2 weeks ago titled US election is right around the corner..., I maintained a bearish opinion on Dow Jones while indicating the possibility of bullish surge after the election, which is a common phenomenon, I mentioned of a resistance at 44,932, Dow reached a high of 44,163 on the week of election and 44,496 this week before retreating. 

I have also mentioned in my entry that US is in a phase of distribution based on technical analysis concept. Trump's win may be able to reverse the status quo. It really depends on the will power the people to look forward instead of demanding equality of result. 

Road ahead for Trump's team is hard. At least for the time being, they are heading in the right direction, which is to tackle the deficit. Introduction of DOGE will help in reduction of overhead in the government to improve efficiency leading to cost saving. However, this indirectly means that Trump's team will be implementing austerity measure, which great for the long run, it is hard for the people in the short run. But again, will power. 

Trump does not have much time, because the measures that his team going to introduce is not going to be pleasing to the people. These will be hard measures requiring the team to bulldoze through. They in fact only have 2 years to achieve their goals instead of 4 years. Because if it is not properly managed, people will turn on them faster than they do on Biden and Kamala.

So where might Dow be heading next?

Fig 1. Dow Jones weekly chart

The bar formation these 2 weeks did not create any reversal candlestick formation. I do not see a reversal and it may be more of correction or congestion the coming week, with support likely to be between 39,456 to 42,740.

Having said that, while Dow Jones reached a higher high, its MACD did not. This leads to potential divergence indicating weakness in the Dow's climb.

Furthermore, the gradient of its latest ascension is more gradual as compared to that from the previous one. It is actually slowing down.

We may still see Dow hitting higher, though. It is in between supports and resistance levels as far as I can see. Its most immediate resistance is the 100% of its short run projection at 44,968. Crossing this will be its long run 100% projection resistance at 47,371. I believe the later will be a more likely possibility for reversal because it also coincides with the intermediate 127% projection.

Dark cloud covers Hang Seng

The US election was over and the market reacted. Well, at least the US market did so with euphoria. Dow Jones surged to 44,163, close to the level that I estimated of 44,932 last week in US election is right around the corner.... It will be interesting to see how the US market develop after the euphoria is over.

For the time being let's check on Hang Seng index because it is definitely not doing too well. In my last update Hang Seng is climbing..., I hacve indicated that Hang Seng is climbing with resistances of up to 22,868. Hang Seng reached 23,257 before it retreated. Since then, while declining, the weekly move was much more mellow.

So, is Hang Seng going back up soon or there is more down slide coming?

Fig 1. Hang Seng weekly chart

Indeed, based on the multiple setups resulted from Hang Seng, it certainly seems bullish. The issue here is that there are multiple projection resistances between a narrow range of 22,737 to 22,918. This I believe is the primary cause of its reversal on week of 6th October 2024. It opened higher, climbed up a little but came all the way back down recovering more than 50% of the previous week's gain. 

This in fact forming dark cloud covers for Hang Seng, indicating a negative reversal. 

Hang Seng is coming down.

Where are the support?

My Favorite is the 55-week moving average of 18,439. In addition, there is a a support zone between17,978 to 19,263.

The problem is that the moving averages alignment maintain a downward signal. I have got a feeling that Hang Seng's decline may not end here.

Meanwhile, Hang Seng managed to hit higher high, while there is yet divergence from MACD. 

We may still be seeing a correction or a complex B wave for Hang Seng.

Should Hang Seng be supported by its 8-week moving average at this point of time, we may see it climbing higher to between 27,585 to 30581, which is the double bottom objective of Hang Seng.

For the time being, my estimation will be a continuation to 55-week moving average before reversing upward. The 8-week moving average will be an important determinant for Hang Seng's decision.

US election is right around the corner...

I believe that it was XBox that released the Age Of Empire Mobile game this week. I remember that the first time I played the Age Of Empire was around 1996-98. That was the first version which I think closely resembles another game Civilization.

So I thought," why not give it a try, for old time sake."

Boy, have I made a BIG MISTAKE?

While there are some nostalgia of the original Age Of Empire, it is more like another game that I played for years which I eventually gave up, State Of Survivor(SOS). However, this game is more complex and there are a lot of different aspect that requires attention.

While playing the game, I noticed many players from my region stopped playing the game, most of them did not even reach level 10. Most players played with the mindset of playing game like SOS. But this is different with additional feature of land grab, planting flag poles.

What I saw in most alliances (that is what they called in the game) having members cluster in big group, while a large mass of land is taken up, unguarded. while there are re-location tools, it is very expensive and not worth using.Therefore members(or allies was the6y were called) have difficulties re-locating to support land from threat.

Further more, many of them just went on doing their own stuff while not contributing to the alliances, making progress difficult.

The complexity in managing the citadel itself is not helping neither, I myself spent much time going round the screen checking different aspects before I can focus on developing my citadel.

The result I saw was around 80% of the players gave up on the game. Even I am contemplating leaving the game as the territory is dying.

My understanding is that this game started by Microsoft, my feel is that it will not make it since within a week's of its launch and I am already contemplating giving up.

Anyway, that waws my rant for this game, let's go back to the real game.

I mentioned last week that I will include an entry on Dow Jones this week, and as promised, here it is.

My last update on Dow Jones It is tumbling down, but it is not yet for Dow Jones, I was adament at the time that Dow Jones was not ready to go down. Since then it climbed higher. So This time is it ready to come down?

Fig 1.DJIA weekly chart

I mentioned in my last week's entry that it was too early to tell since it was only a long bar down. Well, it is not that easy this week neither. A doji is created, indicating uncertainty. So what the chart tell me other than this uncertainty?

First and foremost, MACD crossed downward and not surpassing previous high, this is an indication of divergence, even though it is a weak on.

I believe it will be a correction instead of a reversal. Further indication needed for confirmation.

What else can I see?

The descent of Dow Jone is supported by its 8-week moving average and the 61.8% resistance turned support of its most recent projection, but it closed below the moving average. There is a chance that it may remain congest in the coming week, but the general direction will be trending downward. 

The support I see may be between 39,134 (55-week moving average) to 40,206 (61.8% resistance turned support of its major projection.

The point is that there is a chance at this point that Dow Jones will bounce upward in the coming week, then the resistance I see will be 44,932.

The coming week is when the major event of US election is, it does not matter who wins the election, should the market not rally with good news in either way?

The important thing is that market is all about anticipation. People anticipating the revelation of this good news, and will start selling off once the event is over.

Will it climb with the result? Possible, with maximum period of round 2 week before it starts to head down. After all, Dow Jones really need a correction.

Speaking of the situation of US, I have a thought here based on the market concept of accumulation and distribution.

Is US presently at accumulation or distribution?

I believe that it is presently in process of distribution, why?

Notice the works of BLM? Reparation? LGBTQ*? The demand for privileges is an indication of distribution because everyone is yell," I deserve more!" This will lead to break up of a country.

What is accumulation then? It is when everyone chip in effort for a cause, it results in building up a nation.

In my opinion, US is badly in need to self-reflection, what the Democrats has introduced is very damaging to the country and the process needs to be reversed.

Unfortunately, many voters focus on the wrong thing, believing in the redirection from Democrats. Let's cross fingers that Trump can win back the country.